OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Virginiá]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

Sweet jesus, thank you thank you thank you

[Zaybay]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

It seems we have found McCaskill's apprentice.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Leneghan story is old hat by now.  It’s also specifically a suit over the primary results for the general election, which was closer.

[Ebsy]

The Leneghan story is old hat by now.  It’s also specifically a suit over the primary results for the general election, which was closer.

Well now we have a GOP State Rep on record saying that many conservatives believe the allegations and will be sitting out next week.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd trust Andy Brenner about as far as I could throw him.

Republican turnout might be down around Liberty Township, where Leneghan is a Trustee, but I don't think it'll be by much.

[IceSpear]

Will the media harass every Republican about whether they support Jordan for speaker like they do for Pelosi?

[Ebsy]

I'd trust Andy Brenner about as far as I could throw him.

Republican turnout might be down around Liberty Township, where Leneghan is a Trustee, but I don't think it'll be by much.

I've found that the crazy, scummy Republican state representatives are more clued into the conservative base of the party than any of the more established party figures.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

Sweet jesus, thank you thank you thank you

twss

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There will be a rematch, in Nov; as a result, OConner and Cordray will ride into office on popular Sherrod Brown's coattails, I wouldnt write off Ohio, for the Dems if its a narrow OConnor loss

[Brittain33]

Looks like Balderson has not done a good job of brining together Republicans:

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1024059851822059520

With these districts which are safe R except in a blue wave, any Republican with any ambition should want to let the Democrat win so they can come back in 2020 or at the latest 2022 and take it back. Why wouldn’t they sit on their hands?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 Dems should win OH in a prez race and in 2022, we have the 2018 gubernatorial map for the senate races. It goes downhill from there. Cordray as Gov will have some say so over redistricting

[NOVA Green]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

I think this hits the nail on the head. Probably tonight and throughout the week I will have some more analysis of how many of early voters are new registers and also what the return rates are for the various parties across the 7 counties. Expect to see the numbers for the latter tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

Do we know what the final early vote numbers looked like here in 2016? I thought I saw on Twitter that it was a pretty decent Republican lead.

All I have been able to find are the Franklin County numbers that I posted a few pages back on the thread....

Relevant numbers for the OH-CD 12 election in 2016 in Franklin County by Party and "Vote Type":



Franklin County-2014 numbers for OH-CD 12 by Party and Vote Type:



Franklin County: 2012 numbers of OH-CD-12 by Party and Vote Type:




Unfortunately it doesn't appear that this data is easily and freely available on the Internet, although I don't doubt that for the other Six Counties within CD-12 it is likely obtainable for a fee from the local election offices....

I guess we could at least look at the overall Franklin County OH CD-12 numbers and try to come up with a % swing, but really I doubt that the '12 and '16 GE numbers will be as representative of the EV/ED voters, compared to a lower turnout election such as '14....

[NOVA Green]

2020 Dems should win OH in a prez race and in 2022, we have the 2018 gubernatorial map for the senate races. It goes downhill from there. Cordray as Gov will have some say so over redistricting

This appears to be a slight case of the following:



Although I wouldn't be shocked to see a significant number of Obama '12 / Trump '16 voters flip back in '20, as well as continued erosion of Republican support within the "Ancestral Republican" Suburban/Exurban educated and Upper Middle-Class parts of Ohio, we have yet to see any evidence to support that.... YET.

IF, we see a DEM victory in the OH CD-12 Special Election, AND we see the DEM GOV candidate win as part of a political coalition that includes a mixture of Ancestral Dems in NE and SE Ohio that swung hard Trump '16, swing voters actually backing a DEM for OH State Governor, and the educated Upper-Middle Class Ancestral 'Pubs of the Ohio 'Burbs actually vote for a Democrat for Governor in 2018, THEN we might be able to make a reasonable argument that DEMs have been able to break the "Down-Ballot Curse" of the past Decade....

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

Still, I get the angle you're coming from, just won't be popping and champagne corks quite yet for Ohio....

[Virginiá]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems only need WI, MI, PA to the EC college. But, with 3 dozen GOP (36) house districts at stake, it makes FL and OH purple states and control of House and Senate at stake

[Virginiá]

The Dems only need WI, MI, PA to the EC college. But, with 3 dozen GOP (36) house districts at stake, it makes FL and OH purple states and control of House and Senate at stake

OC, with all due respect, you do this way too much. This post is only very, very mildly germane to the thread topic (or maybe not at all?). This is about the OH-12 special election, not about vague pronouncement about what Democrats need in 2018 and 2020. Seriously, you keep repeating these tidbits that sometimes have nothing to do with the topic at hand and are quite honestly things everyone already knows anyway.

[IceSpear]

The Dems only need WI, MI, PA to the EC college. But, with 3 dozen GOP (36) house districts at stake, it makes FL and OH purple states and control of House and Senate at stake

OC, with all due respect, you do this way too much. This post is only very, very mildly germane to the thread topic (or maybe not at all?). This is about the OH-12 special election, not about vague pronouncement about what Democrats need in 2018 and 2020. Seriously, you keep repeating these tidbits that sometimes have nothing to do with the topic at hand and are quite honestly things everyone already knows anyway.

You're really gonna try?

[NOVA Green]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Sneaky 'Pub Weasels!!!

Trying to get away with looking like they are playing along with those traditional Heartland values of "Fair Play" and all that, while they are just eyeballing how to set-up the next Decade of the game to maintain continued "Legitimate Monopoly of Power"....

Still, it should be noted that Ohio has seen some pretty funky shifts in electoral and political coalitions in recent elections, so even if the 'Pubs game a map incorporating "Obama '08/'12 WWC swinging hard for Trump '16, AND try to mitigate the damage from swings in some of the Upper-Income 'burbs in the larger Metro Areas, will they really know what they are buying in the future?

I guess the advantage for the 'Pubs in a "delay of game" maneuver would be that could most effectively calculate the trade-offs until after they have a few more election data-sets at the finger-tips of their software packages?

I don't want to further derail the thread from the OH CD-12 Special Election, since this is obviously a much more extensive conversation, but as always Virginia, you've given us all a whole lot more to consider from a longer-term and wider political perspective.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was referring to the shifts in early voting and what to expect on election day, Balderson is favored, but dont rule out an OConnor win

[BuckeyeNut]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

[Virginiá]

You're really gonna try?

Someone has to try

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has colluded with the enemy, but voting machines werent hacked. OH-12 is the perfect state to test if Dems are gonna expand that majority

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump has colluded with the enemy, but voting machines werent hacked. OH-12 is the perfect state to test if Dems are gonna expand that majority

We don't even have to win it to prove that we are viable as a team this november, we just need to keep it within 3 points to really prove it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So where does the race stand today?

[NOVA Green]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Hmmm.... I wish I have spent more time on the Political Geography and Demographics Board...

Do we have any links on that thread that might be of interest to those of us interested in taking a deeper dive regarding OH redistricting and hypothetical?

There's been some pretty interesting discussions in there over time on redistricting maps, "Muon's Rules" and honestly I would surprised if someone hasn't presented potential mapping scenarios in light of the recent Ohio Citizen's Initiative....

Honestly, I'm surprised by the data you presented, especially regarding not only the  County level splits, but also HOW FEW Reps in heavily Democratic Counties actually live within the Counties.

One must certainly wonder what the future borders of OH CD-12 will look like in 2022.....