OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[john cage bubblegum]

If you throw out the "Other" early vote in Franklin, Dems had a 49 point advantage.  For O'Connor to improve upon that by 12 points is impressive.  Doesn't mean he's going to win, but it's very nice to see.

[NOVA Green]

I'm begging folks here (including me) not to freak out over the early returns/early vote.

Good luck with that. It's hard enough getting people to remember that NoVa reports last.

What's you saying about me?  

Just got off work and waiting for the early votes to roll in before starting to report....

[Oryxslayer]

Final Update:



Through today, the last day of early voting. Democrats end with a 10.5 point edge in early vote vote partisanship (compared to their usual 20+ point deficit). I'll have more analysis tonight, but this is consistent with 1. a close race and 2. special election turnout of around 110-140k. Franklin Count has dropped quite a bit from their initial share of the early vote, but it is still far ahead of it's usual 32% of the electorate.

Quoting this so that we can see that O'Conner won others and some Reps in Franklin. Not surprising,  the others are probably filled with minorities in Franklin who never vote in the primary but do in the general.

[Xing]

OMG!!!!! O'Connorslide! Cordrayslide! But if his lead shrinks with the next vote dump, Balderson's got this.

[Politician]

Bladders leads by 111 in Licking County.

[Brittain33]

Licking EV split for Balderson 3315-3204. Consistent with 50/50 split of Indy’s if they held their bases.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

MSNBC says according to their estimates, Trump got 32% of the early vote in Franklin County in 2016 (estimated)

[136or142]

Percent   Candidate   Party   Votes   Winner
70%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   14,082   
29.3%   Troy Balderson   GOP   5,894   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   150   

[pppolitics]

How come there isn't a needle that swings back and forth like last time?

[mds32]

Licking Early vote in 50-48 Balderson

[IceSpear]

Bladders leads by 111 in Licking County.

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Mazie Hirono better watch her back.

[Brittain33]

Marion EV IS 220-119 for Balderson

[Oryxslayer]

Unrelated, but CNN updated their map wall graphics to nicer color scheme.

[KingSweden]

Alright everyone time to freak out over early votes!

Ahhhhhhhhahhhhahh

[BudgieForce]

Alright everyone time to freak out over early votes!

Ahhhhhhhhahhhhahh

WHOSE FREAKING OUT IM NOT FREAKING OUT

[GeorgiaModerate]

How come there isn't a needle that swings back and forth like last time?

The counties aren't providing precinct-level results, which are necessary to feed the model in real time.

[john cage bubblegum]

Licking EV split for Balderson 3315-3204. Consistent with 50/50 split of Indy’s if they held their bases.

Repubs had a +500 vote advantage in early vote in Licking.  O'Connor's doing a bit better than 50/50 among indies there, if not wildly better.

[Zaybay]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHH
H

ah

[Chief Justice Keef]

Bladders leads by 111 in Licking County.

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Mazie Hirono better watch her back.

Connecticut is now a pure tossup.

[136or142]

   66.8%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   16,013   
32.5%   Troy Balderson   GOP   7,787   
0.8%   Joe Manchik   GP   188   

[Politician]

O'Connor leads by 2000 votes in Richland.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

O Connor won the Richland EV.

[Oryxslayer]

O'Conner wins Richland early vote, Balderson Morrow.

[Matty]

Welp.....so much for the advice to ignore EV results

Lmao

[BudgieForce]

I feel like Republicans should give up on 2020 now.

Alittle too soon for that kind of talk.