OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh well, at least Balderson will still be better than Tiberi.

Bagel's 6 point Balderson win isnt happening. If he does win, it will be close, either way😀

[JG]

Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

Morris's take:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1026318554671603718

[KingSweden]

Guys it’s Emerson

Though I think the range of outcomes has narrowed to something verrrry close in either direction

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Guys it’s Emerson

Though I think the range of outcomes has narrowed to something verrrry close in either direction

Which would be bad for Democrats.

Democrats need a sizable win of at least 3 points to prove that they have not lost momentum since the PA-18 special election.

[YE]

Guys it’s Emerson

Though I think the range of outcomes has narrowed to something verrrry close in either direction

Which would be bad for Democrats.

Democrats need a sizable win of at least 3 points to prove that they have not lost momentum since the PA-18 special election.

You realize PA-18 is more ancestrally Democratic friendly than OH-12 and thus more open to voting Democratic than PVI would suggest, right?

[ProudModerate2]

Latest Emerson poll, from their podcast:

O'Connor 47%
Balderson 46%

Undecided 7%, MOE 5%

Talk about a photo finish! I honestly think this is as close to a 50/50 race as it gets at this point.

Unfortunately, it's Emerson.

The poll before this, was from Monmouth conducted between July 26-31, and Balderson lead by just +1 in that poll. So why could this Emerson poll be considered so far "off?"

[Tender Branson]

Guys it’s Emerson

Though I think the range of outcomes has narrowed to something verrrry close in either direction

Which would be bad for Democrats.

Democrats need a sizable win of at least 3 points to prove that they have not lost momentum since the PA-18 special election.

Even if O'Connor slightly loses tomorrow, we need to remember it would still be a HUGE swing to the Dems.

This district usually voted 65%+ Republican for Congress and R+11 to R+15 in Presidential elections.

A 3-point win would be nice and actually doable (because it seems O'Connor is peaking just at the right time), but not necessary to show that Dems are in good shape.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats have overperformed in special elections by an average of 15 points or so. There's bound to be statistical noise around this average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1026488653789450241

FWIW, Trende actually lives in OH-12.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Final Prediction - O'Connor by 1.5 points

[Virginiá]

I don't even get why Republicans care so much about this (well, actually, I get it, but it's dumb). If there is going to be a wave, it doesn't matter if they save face in a couple special elections or not. Just because they manage to prevent a loss in OH-12 doesn't mean it's suddenly going to be good for them in November. And it doesn't mean Democrats aren't going to continue bringing in truckloads of cash via fundraising either. Yet every time we have had a special election, Republicans act like it is priority #1 to win it for [insert reasons for saving face]. They could have saved themselves a lot of money if they just let things play out on their own.

That being said, what GEM said seems decent. A slight loss by Danny boy or a win is just as good. There is no fundamental difference in the November predictions game if he loses by 1 point or wins by 1 point.

[Ebsy]

B-b-but the Red Wave!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't even get why Republicans care so much about this (well, actually, I get it, but it's dumb). If there is going to be a wave, it doesn't matter if they save face in a couple special elections or not. Just because they manage to prevent a loss in OH-12 doesn't mean it's suddenly going to be good for them in November. And it doesn't mean Democrats aren't going to continue bringing in truckloads of cash via fundraising either. Yet every time we have had a special election, Republicans act like it is priority #1 to win it for [insert reasons for saving face]. They could have saved themselves a lot of money if they just let things play out on their own.

I mean that's all true, but couldn't you say the same about Democrats? One seat is not a lot, but it's still a seat.

[Politician]

B-b-but the Red Wave!

If Republicans hold this ditrict: "Where's your "blue wave" libtards? HA HA HA HA"

[Virginiá]

I mean that's all true, but couldn't you say the same about Democrats? One seat is not a lot, but it's still a seat.

Probably, but I view Democrats as in a naturally precarious situation with the US House. They need literally every seat they can get, given how disadvantaged they are with the gerrymandered + geographically biased maps. If O'Connor wins and the election turnout is at least semi-good tomorrow, he'll have incumbency to lean on for November, and that makes it easier to hold the seat vs winning it outright.

In that sense, Democrats need this a lot more than Republicans do.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nice at least we lead in the very last poll.

[Gass3268]

Ohio Republicans are not happy with Kasich:

https://twitter.com/JackTorry1/status/1026518776056037379

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Final Prediction - O'Connor by 1.5 points

[junior chįmp]

Another Republican jumps off the sinking GOP ship headed by Captain Trump:

https://www.twitter.com/ForOurFutureOH/status/1026516503238201344

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The poll that shows O'Connor ahead 47-46 also shows Franklin at only 32% of the model, rn we are sitting at around 38%. This could very well change throughout the rest of the race, but if we can keep Franklin above 35%, I think we have a good path.

[Brittain33]

Balderson and O’Connor are converging on Predictit. It’s now 54c for Baldy, 49c for Danny Boy.

[BuckeyeNut]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

This although I think O’Connor wins at this point.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

Do the two of you want to lose money lol?