OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

The statewide registration breakdown (per Ohio Voter Project) is 26% R, 18% D, 56% non-affiliated (which just means they haven't cast a primary ballot for either party).  I don't see a breakdown by CD.

[OneJ]

FWIW, JMC has a C+ by FiveThirtyEight. Definitely still a race you should not take your eyes off of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, JMC has a C+ by FiveThirtyEight. Definitely still a race you should not take your eyes off of.

FWIW, in the AL-SEN special election they went from Moore+8 to Jones+4 to Moore+5.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

JMC is not the best pollster out there.

[BuckeyeNut]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

The Columbus metro very large, Cordray does not do well in it per say, he does well in the counties that immediately border Franklin. Ohio’s 12 congressional district is a lot more than the ring of counties around Franklin. If this poll is accurate, it is very good for Cordray, but I feel like it is junk.

[Badger]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

No

Amended answer: F#@k no.

[BuckeyeNut]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

“Dems are in disarray”

[TheSaint250]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

Ironically, the areas where some Republican candidates disavow McConnell and Ryan end up being the most conservative.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan has been a popular Speaker, McConnell isn't

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ryan has been a popular Speaker, McConnell isn't

Lol no he hasn’t.

[new_patomic]

Ryan has been a popular Speaker, McConnell isn't

Ryan's approval rating was/is worse than Trumps.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Kennedy praised Ryan, personally, and is cordial with working out with him and Tim Ryan. All three of them. Policy wise, Democrats as well as Indies don't support him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

Also Troy Balderson is a much stronger candidate than her. This won't happened though.

[Badger]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

Aren't her recount hopes more focused on the primary for the special election rather than 4 the General in November, iirc?

[BuckeyeNut]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

Aren't her recount hopes more focused on the primary for the special election rather than 4 the General in November, iirc?

Other way around. It would be strange if she was the GE candidate and not then the special candidate, but IIRC, that's happened before. It could also lead to one of the shortest full terms in office ever.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

[IceSpear]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

It's pretty hilarious seeing a Democrat running ads about how they're like John Kasich. Bizarro world just keeps getting more and more bizarre, lol.

Though I guess if there's any district to try that strategy it's this one. He apparently has a higher approval among Democrats than Republicans now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

Agreed, O'Connor's blowing this.

[Tender Branson]

O'Connor's blowing this.

He's not "blowing it", because he never really had a chance to win that race in the first place.

As I have said months ago, this district does involve a generic Republican (well, even a better version, because Balderson is well liked in the district) and the outgoing Republican was not involved in a sex scandal. Also, Kasich as Governor is popular in OH - so there is no mood for change. Democrats can be happy if the race end up R+8 or something.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor's blowing this.

He's not "blowing it", because he never really had a chance to win that race in the first place.

As I have said months ago, this district does involve a generic Republican (well, even a better version, because Balderson is well liked in the district) and the outgoing Republican was not involved in a sex scandal. Also, Kasich as Governor is popular in OH - so there is no mood for change. Democrats can be happy if the race end up R+8 or something.

While it's true O'Connor is hurt by the fact Tiberi didn't resign in scandal, you're reading the race/district all wrong. Statewide, Kasich is more popular with Democrats than Republicans, but this is still his old stomping grounds and the one Republican district the vestige of the Kasich Republican holds on -- sidling up to him makes sense. It doesn't really hurt O'Connor with anybody. Sidling up Trump, on the other hand, is downright stupid. This is the one Republican-held district that trended to Clinton. R+8 would be a piss poor showing in this environment. It's only a trend of D+3%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor's blowing this.

He's not "blowing it", because he never really had a chance to win that race in the first place.

As I have said months ago, this district does involve a generic Republican (well, even a better version, because Balderson is well liked in the district) and the outgoing Republican was not involved in a sex scandal. Also, Kasich as Governor is popular in OH - so there is no mood for change. Democrats can be happy if the race end up R+8 or something.

While it's true O'Connor is hurt by the fact Tiberi didn't resign in scandal, you're reading the race/district all wrong. Statewide, Kasich is more popular with Democrats than Republicans, but this is still his old stomping grounds and the one Republican district the vestige of the Kasich Republican holds on -- sidling up to him makes sense. It doesn't really hurt O'Connor with anybody. Sidling up Trump, on the other hand, is downright stupid. This is the one Republican-held district that trended to Clinton. R+8 would be a piss poor showing in this environment. It's only a trend of D+3%.

But Troy Balderson is a Gold Tier candidate and O'Connor is like Gremlin with a smashed out window.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump's approvals above 50% in OH and FL, so its not surprising that the GOP has small leads in these key races in OH 12.

[ON Progressive]

Trump's approvals above 50% in OH and FL, so its not surprising that the GOP has small leads in these key races in OH 12.

If that were true, his approval would be over 50% nationwide instead of 42%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He has lower approvals in the Clinton states than the ones he won.

http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2018/may/04/jim-renacci/following-trump-endorsement-jim-renacci-cites-poll/

This is the evidence