I’m confused by people giving Romney Indiana. McCain didn’t lose that state so much as Obama won it. I think Romney would have done worse across the board, for representing both the unpopular incumbent party and the “rich bank man” stereotype at a horrible time for that image. That’s why I flip the states that were within a couple points because I think he would have done a couple points worse basically everywhere but Utah.
Also I don’t think Arizona was “there yet” in 2008. Without McCain it would have been closer but I doubt it flips.
Yeah, Romney's flaws as a candidate would mint votes for Democrats in many key states.