Switch Romney and McCain
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Author Topic: Switch Romney and McCain  (Read 1866 times)
bagelman
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« on: October 17, 2017, 12:05:45 AM »

John McCain is 4 years younger and Mitt Romney is 4 years older. Romney runs against Obama (or Clinton, but probably Obama) in '08 and if he loses McCain runs against him in '12. What happens?
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 12:08:31 AM »

Romney obviously loses. McCain has some chance of winning.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2017, 12:21:26 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2017, 12:38:31 AM by Old School Republican »

2008:

Obama/Biden  350
Romney/Daniels 188


2012:



McCain/Pawlenty 279
Obama/Biden 259
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2017, 12:26:25 AM »

Romney loses, but I imagine he wouldn't have been stupid enough to pick Sarah Palin as VP. He probably opts for Pawlenty or Giuliani. He also would have presented a stronger challenge to Obama in the debates. My guess at the Map is this:



311-227 Obama. The stronger performance probably allows the republicans to pull through in a few more house races, and most likely would have allowed Norm Coleman to survive in Minnesota, which means senate dems would be just short of 60 votes even after Specter's switch, so ObamaCare most likely never passes the Senate.

As for McCain, it's hard to tell. It's possible that he could bungle 2012 and allow Obama to win re-election by something like this:



375-163 Obama


But it's also possible that McCain could successfully appeal to the minorities that voted Bush '04/Obama '08, and have appeal in the upper midwest that Romney never had (Remember that Michigan was considered competitive until the last couple months of the 2008 cycle), and pull off a  win:



291-247 McCain

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bagelman
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2017, 08:12:07 AM »

I find it hard to believe that MI goes GOP without IA or WI
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2017, 08:31:25 AM »


351: Barack Obama/Evan Bayh or Wesley Clark or Joe Biden - 52.2%
187: Mitt Romney/Charlie Crist - 44.8%



324: John McCain/Condoleezza Rice or Kelly Ayotte or Brian Sandoval or Norm Coleman - 50.4%
214: Barack Obama/Evan Bayh or Wesley Clark or Joe Biden - 45.8%
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2017, 07:42:38 PM »

2008:



Obama/Biden
Romney/Bush
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2021, 01:39:43 AM »


Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR)


President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Fmr. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
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Samof94
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2021, 07:00:34 AM »

Why would he pick a Bush?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2021, 02:42:27 PM »

2008:



2012:



That’s McCain’s best case scenario; I’m not sure he actually would have won OH or VA or even FL,  but he may have had a better chance than Romney.

2008 is pretty much exactly what I would have expected.
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hyouzel the predictor
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2021, 02:54:59 PM »

If McCain wins in 2012 and 2016 and dies in 2018, would his VP be favored in 2020?
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bagelman
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2021, 05:37:38 PM »

If McCain wins in 2012 and 2016 and dies in 2018, would his VP be favored in 2020?

That totally depends on who the VP is. I doubt he would be desperate enough to pick Palin in 2012.

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Chips
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2021, 06:00:52 PM »

2008:



Barack Obama: 374 electoral votes
Mitt Romney: 164 electoral votes

AZ, IN, NC, and MO are all within a quarter of a point.

2012:

John McCain could've won in 2012 if he didn't pick Palin as his running mate I feel and the conditions being better.

If McCain wins:



John McCain: 317 electoral votes
President Obama: 221 electoral votes

If McCain loses: 2012 map
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2021, 09:16:50 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2021, 09:19:56 PM by Alben Barkley »

I’m confused by people giving Romney Indiana. McCain didn’t lose that state so much as Obama won it. I think Romney would have done worse across the board, for representing both the unpopular incumbent party and the “rich bank man” stereotype at a horrible time for that image. That’s why I flip the states that were within a couple points because I think he would have done a couple points worse basically everywhere but Utah.

Also I don’t think Arizona was “there yet” in 2008. Without McCain it would have been closer but I doubt it flips.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2021, 09:22:56 PM »

I’m confused by people giving Romney Indiana. McCain didn’t lose that state so much as Obama won it. I think Romney would have done worse across the board, for representing both the unpopular incumbent party and the “rich bank man” stereotype at a horrible time for that image. That’s why I flip the states that were within a couple points because I think he would have done a couple points worse basically everywhere but Utah.

Also I don’t think Arizona was “there yet” in 2008. Without McCain it would have been closer but I doubt it flips.
Yeah, Romney's flaws as a candidate would mint votes for Democrats in many key states.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2021, 12:13:03 PM »

Obama would destroy Romney. The Republican base hated him even in 2012. The last thing the country wants is a rich wall street tycoon in the immediate aftermath of the housing crash

Montana and Missouri flip. Maybe Georgia, Alaska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Arizona and Texas are possible
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2021, 12:37:55 PM »

Romney would have done significantly worse than McCain pretty much across the board, with the only exceptions being Mormon areas and a handful of uber-rich towns and suburbs.



Hillary, by the way, would have won vast swathes of Appalachia and the Outer South against Romney.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2021, 12:58:12 PM »

Anything other than an Obama landslide in 2008 is delusional. He was close to landslide territory in 2008 (I’d call it a landslide if he had won MO and MT). Against Romney? lol Rmoney would be the worst person other than Dick Cheney or George Bush (if he was eligible). I don’t think there’s any running mate that would’ve helped either.

As for 2012, it’s hard to say. I’m assuming that Obama might have a few more senate Dems, so Obamacare might be very different than it ended up being. McCain still probably would have lost though. As we saw this past year, incumbency is still very much an advantage. I’m not sure how badly McCain would’ve lost by, but I would assume he would do something along the lines of our timeline’s Romney 2012, give it take a bit. Palin wouldn’t be his VP nominee, so that could help him.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2021, 02:01:52 PM »

2008 is more of a blowout (businessman persona << soldier persona in a financial crisis).  2012 is closer and McCain could win.
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