Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

pbrower2a
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	Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.2 « Reply #1825 on: February 20, 2018, 01:55:06 PM »
	« edited: February 20, 2018, 01:59:53 PM by pbrower2a »

Quote from: dfwlibertylover on February 19, 2018, 08:24:42 AM

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/
Trump at 49/49 in Texas

Lots of interesting data here. Governor Greg Abbott is doing OK with an approval rating in the usual range of pols getting re-elected. Congress gives a 19-61 split on approval rating, which is abominable. The two Republican Senators are both underwater in what has been one of the stronger Republican states since the 1984. Senator Ted Cruz is underwater 40-41; to get re-elected comfortably he needs to have an approval rating in the mid-40s. Senator John Cornyn is underwater at 29-38... but he is not up for re-election.

Ted Cruz is vulnerable to a spirited and competent challenge. Beto O'Rourke has a positive spread of approval at a low level.

Texas is in range for a Democratic wave as it was not ten years ago. But unless there is some radical shift in the ways in which the states vote relative to each other, Texas is likely the difference between the Democrats winning the Presidency as Clinton did in the 1990s or Obama did in 2008 -- and ending up with just over 400 electoral votes. Demography is changing Texas in two ways. First, its electorate is becoming better educated, approaching the national average. Although well-educated suburban white people voted heavily against Obama in 2008 and 2012 (see also Georgia), they are beginning to fit the national pattern better. Second (without the double-counting), the fast-growing Mexican-American electorate finds Donald Trump 'good' only for insults of them.

If Texas votes nearly 50-50 in 2020 for President, as most polls so far suggest, then the President will be losing about 57-43 nationwide. Donald Trump is not the new Ronald Reagan.

Quote from: Gass3268 on February 20, 2018, 12:57:29 PM

PPP-Wisconsin:

(Donald Trump)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Source

On Governor Walker, its 43-52.

Trump will need Walker as Governor of Wisconsin if he is to win the state, and he is nearly as unpopular as the President already..

Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

Here is the Gallup data for 2017. Figuring that this is an average from early February to late December, I will have to assume an average date of July 15 or so for the polling data. This is now rather old data, and in some cases obsolete. For example, I see Trump support cratering in the Mountain and Deep South. the Mountain South and Deep South are going back to a populist phase (the South has typically oscillated between the two) or whether The Donald is beginning to appear as a bad match for either part of the South. This data (or later polling) is not intended to show anything other than how support appears at some time or at an average of times. As a general rule, new polling supplants even better old polling.

So here is the Gallup polling with a number of 100-DIS reflecting what I consider the ceiling for Donald Trump. This is lenient to the extent that I assume that he can pick up most undecided voters but recognizes that undoing disapproval at any stage requires miracles. By definition, miracles are unpredictable.

Gallup data from all polls in 2017 (average assumed in mid-July):

*Approval lower than disapproval in this state

for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

This is polling from October or later, and I will be adding a poll of Florida from October because it is newer than the Gallup polling data.

I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):

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