Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Gass3268]

PPP:

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source

That's rough from a D-leaning firm.

They, like most robopollers, have been leaning Trump/Republican all cycle. Also it's a good sign that Republicans are under polling Trump.

[BudgieForce]

PPP is not a D leaning pollster. In terms of numbers, Trump has never fallen below 40%.

[henster]

Morning Consult Demographic Summary

White 81%(?)/ Hispanic 9%/ Black 13%/ Other 6%

Urban 23%(?)/ Suburban 42%/ Rural 34%()

Dem 32%/Independent 34%/GOP 35%  R+3???

Page 17-19

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Morning Consult Demographic Summary

White 81%(?)/ Hispanic 9%/ Black 13%/ Other 13%

Urban 23%(?)/ Suburban 42%/ Rural 34%()

Dem 32%/Independent 34%/GOP 35%  R+3???

Page 17-19

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000

The methodology in this poll is embarrassing. A 10 year old could do better.

[KingSweden]

Morning Consult Demographic Summary

White 81%(?)/ Hispanic 9%/ Black 13%/ Other 6%

Urban 23%(?)/ Suburban 42%/ Rural 34%()

Dem 32%/Independent 34%/GOP 35%  R+3???

Page 17-19

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000

Dear lord

[Dr. Arch]

Morning Consult Demographic Summary

White 81%(?)/ Hispanic 9%/ Black 13%/ Other 6%

Urban 23%(?)/ Suburban 42%/ Rural 34%()

Dem 32%/Independent 34%/GOP 35%  R+3???

Page 17-19

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000

And they could only squeeze out R+1 with this?

[Person Man]

Morning Consult Demographic Summary

White 81%(?)/ Hispanic 9%/ Black 13%/ Other 6%

Urban 23%(?)/ Suburban 42%/ Rural 34%()

Dem 32%/Independent 34%/GOP 35%  R+3???

Page 17-19

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000

And they could only squeeze out R+1 with this?

Hey, this could happen if Democrats stay home but they are not staying home. In a normal election, I see this being about 8 points more democratic than this.

[Gass3268]

On my phone, but Trump lost 2 points in a new Fox News Poll.

[super6646]

Trump doing better in the new yougov poll, but falling with ipsos.

[LimoLiberal]

Fox:

43 (-2)
53

Yougov:

41 (+1)
51 (-1)

-10 approval seems about right.

[KingSweden]

YouGov’s movement is basically noise, but we seem to be entering a calcified State here

[bagelman]

Morning Consult Trump Approval by State - January 2018:

Alabama: 63-33
Alaska: 48-47
Arizona: 46-49
Arkansas: 53-40
California: 36-59
Colorado: 41-55
Connecticut: 39-58
District of Columbia: 16-80
Delaware: 41-55
Florida: 50-45
Georgia: 51-44
Hawaii: 30-66
Idaho: 53-42
Illinois: 37-58
Indiana: 48-47
Iowa: 43-53
Kansas: 50-45
Kentucky: 55-40
Louisiana: 57-38
Maine: 40-56
Maryland: 36-59
Massachussets: 32-64
Michigan: 42-52
Minnesota: 41-55
Missouri: 49-47
Montana: 48-48
Nebraska: 51-45
Nevada: 47-48
New Hampshire: 43-53
New Jersey: 40-56
New Mexico: 38-58
New York: 39-57
North Carolina: 47-48
North Dakota: 53-42
Ohio: 46-50
Oklahoma: 55-40
Oregon: 37-57
Pennsylvania: 46-49
Rhode Island: 37-59
South Carolina: 51-44
South Dakota: 53-43
Tennessee: 56-39
Texas: 51-44
Utah: 46-49
Vermont: 30-66
Virginia: 45-49
Washington: 36-59
West Virginia: 59-37
Wisconsin: 42-54
Wyoming: 60-35

Source

What this shows is that Trump is unpopular in both the sunbelt and the rust belt, and holds above water mainly in the south and great plains.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Morning Consult Trump Approval by State - January 2018:

Alabama: 63-33
Alaska: 48-47
Arizona: 46-49
Arkansas: 53-40
California: 36-59
Colorado: 41-55
Connecticut: 39-58
District of Columbia: 16-80
Delaware: 41-55
Florida: 50-45
Georgia: 51-44
Hawaii: 30-66
Idaho: 53-42
Illinois: 37-58
Indiana: 48-47
Iowa: 43-53
Kansas: 50-45
Kentucky: 55-40
Louisiana: 57-38
Maine: 40-56
Maryland: 36-59
Massachussets: 32-64
Michigan: 42-52
Minnesota: 41-55
Missouri: 49-47
Montana: 48-48
Nebraska: 51-45
Nevada: 47-48
New Hampshire: 43-53
New Jersey: 40-56
New Mexico: 38-58
New York: 39-57
North Carolina: 47-48
North Dakota: 53-42
Ohio: 46-50
Oklahoma: 55-40
Oregon: 37-57
Pennsylvania: 46-49
Rhode Island: 37-59
South Carolina: 51-44
South Dakota: 53-43
Tennessee: 56-39
Texas: 51-44
Utah: 46-49
Vermont: 30-66
Virginia: 45-49
Washington: 36-59
West Virginia: 59-37
Wisconsin: 42-54
Wyoming: 60-35

Source

What this shows is that Trump is unpopular in both the sunbelt and the rust belt, and holds above water mainly in the south and great plains.

Take these with a grain of salt. No way is Trump nearly as unpopular as he is in Virginia in Utah.

[pbrower2a]

More on the Iowa poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It does not change the map, but I see that my assumption that "disapproval is a way of saying I will not vote for him" 51% disapprove, and 48%  'will definitely vote for another candidate'. Iowa is close to the national mean, and it looks as if 2016 was a fluke win for Trump. It would not take many of the 'I would consider voting for another candidate' to give the Democratic nominee a majority in an essentially binary election, or the plurality in the event that there should be a significant challenger to Donald Trump on the Right side of the political spectrum.

Guessing how this relates to several thresholds of the potential vote,

1. 26%  of the electorate is already certain that it will vote for Trump in 2020.

26% will definitely vote for Trump, which is an absolute floor if one ignores historical precedent.

38% of Iowans voted for Goldwater in 1964, and 40.5% of Iowa voters went for McGovern in 1972. That is a reasonable floor for a politician rejected nationwide, as that is close to the percentage of the national vote that those two got. But Trump is an incumbent. The two biggest failures as President as shown by their electoral defeats in binary races (Ross Perot probably handed the 1992 election to Bill Clinton on silver platter) were Hoover in 1932 (who got close to 40% of the vote) and Carter in 1980 (who got 38% of the binary vote, but there was John Anderson getting 8% of the Iowa vote). Almost any Presidential nominee will get about 38% of the vote nationwide even after a poor performance as President or being a weak challenger to an incumbent who has been somewhat successful.

44% is his approval.  That has been as low as 30% with this pollster.

46% either will definitely vote for Trump or might. That obviously will not be enough.

100-DIS is my estimate of a ceiling for the President: 49%. Sure, he can win at that level (or at 46%) if the left side of the electorate has a strong third-party or independent candidate. I cannot yet rule such out, but I see no indication of such already. It is far more likely that someone will challenge Donald Trump as a 'genuine conservative' or someone shorn of demagoguery and ethnic bigotry. Yes, one can have conservatism without homophobia, misogyny, racism, religious bigotry, and anti-intellectualism, but Republicans have no viable alternatives to Trump should he run in 2020. 2024? Too late for this time.  My model crudely predicts that the Democratic nominee will get 51% of the Iowa vote.

This is not to say that the President will not do worse in Iowa. If 20% would consider voting for someone else, then I would have to split that at best (for a Democrat) about 3 to 1, as that part of the electorate is clearly to the right of center. But if even 75% of those considering voting for someone else still go to Trump, then the President ends up with about 41% of the Iowa vote.... which is just a bit better than Carter did in 1980 in his troubled bid for re-election.    

      

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Only 43-53 in NH....joke polling firm.

[Doimper]

Only 43-53 in NH....joke polling firm.

This will only make the women angrier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos and the UVA Center for Politics did a survey on Americans' ratings of recent Presidents (those who took office after the end of WW2).  Full results are at http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/public-rates-presidents-jfk-reagan-obama-at-top-nixon-lbj-trump-at-bottom/. 

The overall ratings, on a scale of 1-10:

1. JFK 6.56
2. Reagan 6.29
3. Obama 6.15
4. Clinton 5.71
5. (tie) Bush I & II, both with 5.45
7. Eisenhower 5.00
8. Carter 4.70
9. Ford 4.45
10. Trump 4.20
11. LBJ 4.17
12. Nixon 3.80

There's also a partisan breakdown of the results.  Among Independents, the order is the same as above except for a swap between Trump and LBJ.  Republicans rate Reagan highest and Obama lowest, while Democrats rate Obama highest and Trump lowest.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos and the UVA Center for Politics did a survey on Americans' ratings of recent Presidents (those who took office after the end of WW2).  Full results are at http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/public-rates-presidents-jfk-reagan-obama-at-top-nixon-lbj-trump-at-bottom/. 

The overall ratings, on a scale of 1-10:

1. JFK 6.56
2. Reagan 6.29
3. Obama 6.15
4. Clinton 5.71
5. (tie) Bush I & II, both with 5.45
7. Eisenhower 5.00
8. Carter 4.70
9. Ford 4.45
10. Trump 4.20
11. LBJ 4.17
12. Nixon 3.80

There's also a partisan breakdown of the results.  Among Independents, the order is the same as above except for a swap between Trump and LBJ.  Republicans rate Reagan highest and Obama lowest, while Democrats rate Obama highest and Trump lowest.

That bit about Obama and Reagan is 0 surprise

[Gass3268]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

[Horus]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Awful numbers for Trump.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Awful numbers for Trump.

Trump being only 4 points above water in a district he won by 19 doesn't square with Rassy & Morning Consult which have him at close to even approval nationwide, unless he's somehow made a massive recovery in the Sunbelt.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Awful numbers for Trump.

Trump being only 4 points above water in a district he won by 19 doesn't square with Rassy & Morning Consult which have him at close to even approval nationwide, unless he's somehow made a massive recovery in the Sunbelt.

Heck, those numbers don't agree with Monmouth's own national poll.

[KingSweden]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Awful numbers for Trump.

Yeah that’s... not great

[LimoLiberal]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Brutal. Also matches up perfectly with the DHM poll that also showed Saccone only up 3.

[pbrower2a]

Trump Approval of Likely Voters in PA-18:

51% Approve (37% Strongly)
47% Disapprove (42% Strongly)

Source

Awful numbers for Trump.

Trump being only 4 points above water in a district he won by 19 doesn't square with Rassy & Morning Consult which have him at close to even approval nationwide, unless he's somehow made a massive recovery in the Sunbelt.

I am sticking with my map of polls from October and later which show Trump  losing little support in the states that rejected him most (those, like California and New York are in max-out positions for Democrats), enough to lose in states that he lost by slight-to-modest margins (meaning that every state that he won by 10% or less will go to the Democratic nominee for President), getting nothing in states that he barely won -- probably losing some there. PA-18 is consistent with this prediction.

He will probably get 60% or so in Oklahoma and Wyoming, but most of his wins will be bare wins in states that have reliably gone Republican in Presidential elections since 2000. I can see him losing Arizona and Texas. I see the potential for a Carter-like or Hoover-like loss in a re-election bid. If there is any President under which an economic meltdown or an international debacle is possible, it is he. But even if he is lucky, I can see him losing much like the elder Bush in 1988 if one ignores the Perot vote.

Of course I see a failed Presidency even if I must ignore his stated beliefs and policies. I look at the chaotic staffing, his offensive communications through Twitter, his shady ethics, and his failure to pull any people to his side other than plutocrats scared of his vulgar demagoguery as a campaigner who have since gotten assurance that he stands fully for absolute plutocracy.