Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[cvparty]

I would adjust Morning Consult by like 6 or 7 points tbh

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1563 Adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Great numbers for Democrats in the Midwest, not so great in the Sunbelt.

Virginia 46-49 and Montana tied at 48? Huh-uh.

[King Lear]

Morning Consult Trump Approval by State - January 2018:

Alabama: 63-33
Alaska: 48-47
Arizona: 46-49
Arkansas: 53-40
California: 36-59
Colorado: 41-55
Connecticut: 39-58
District of Columbia: 16-80
Delaware: 41-55
Florida: 50-45
Georgia: 51-44
Hawaii: 30-66
Idaho: 53-42
Illinois: 37-58
Indiana: 48-47
Iowa: 43-53
Kansas: 50-45
Kentucky: 55-40
Louisiana: 57-38
Maine: 40-56
Maryland: 36-59
Massachussets: 32-64
Michigan: 42-52
Minnesota: 41-55
Missouri: 49-47
Montana: 48-48
Nebraska: 51-45
Nevada: 47-48
New Hampshire: 43-53
New Jersey: 40-56
New Mexico: 38-58
New York: 39-57
North Carolina: 47-48
North Dakota: 53-42
Ohio: 46-50
Oklahoma: 55-40
Oregon: 37-57
Pennsylvania: 46-49
Rhode Island: 37-59
South Carolina: 51-44
South Dakota: 53-43
Tennessee: 56-39
Texas: 51-44
Utah: 46-49
Vermont: 30-66
Virginia: 45-49
Washington: 36-59
West Virginia: 59-37
Wisconsin: 42-54
Wyoming: 60-35

Source

These Morning Consul approval Numbers prove my thesis that Democrats have no shot in the sunbelt. The fact that Trump is +5 in Florida, confirms that the state is Lean Republican in 2020, and shows that Bill Nelson will have a tough time winning reelection (hence my Tossup rating). This poll also gives Trump strong numbers in Texas and Georgia, throwing cold water on any delusional Democratic plans of winning those states. Also, with Trump above water in 6 of the states with Democratic senators up this year (WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, and FL), Democrats better brace themselves for big losses this November. The only negative for Trump in this poll, is his underwater numbers in the Rust Belt (OH, IA, MI, WI, and PA), however considering these states are notoriously hard to poll, his approval is probably above water in those states in real Life. Overall, these numbers are devastating for Democrats and show that Trump is on track for reelection, while Democrats are on track to lose several senate seats this year.

[PragmaticPopulist]

These Morning Consul approval Numbers prove my thesis that Democrats have no shot in the sunbelt. The fact that Trump is +5 in Florida, confirms that the state is Lean Republican in 2020, and shows that Bill Nelson will have a tough time winning reelection (hence my Tossup rating). This poll also gives Trump strong numbers in Texas and Georgia, throwing cold water on any delusional Democratic plans of winning those states. Also, with Trump above water in 6 of the states with Democratic senators up this year (WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, and FL), Democrats better brace themselves for big losses this November. The only negative for Trump in this poll, is his underwater numbers in the Rust Belt (OH, IA, MI, WI, and PA), however considering these states are notoriously hard to poll, his approval is probably above water in those states in real Life. Overall, these numbers are devastating for Democrats and show that Trump is on track for reelection, while Democrats are on track to lose several senate seats this year.

We get it; you're a Republican in Democrat's clothing.

These number still aren't good for Trump and the GOP, even though they look better than normal. There are still over 8 months until election day, and things can change quickly in today's political climate. Trump spent the better part of the year below 40% approval, and it appears to have ticked up because there hasn't been much negative news about Trump lately in the headlines, and if Trump lets DACA expire without a fix, I think that will almost certainly hurt his approval ratings, as Dreamers have widespread support.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I refuse to believe Trump's approval is THAT good in Pennsylvania.

Why must Lear be so bad at political analysis?

[pbrower2a]

These Morning Consul approval Numbers prove my thesis that Democrats have no shot in the sunbelt. The fact that Trump is +5 in Florida, confirms that the state is Lean Republican in 2020, and shows that Bill Nelson will have a tough time winning reelection (hence my Tossup rating). This poll also gives Trump strong numbers in Texas and Georgia, throwing cold water on any delusional Democratic plans of winning those states. Also, with Trump above water in 6 of the states with Democratic senators up this year (WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, and FL), Democrats better brace themselves for big losses this November. The only negative for Trump in this poll, is his underwater numbers in the Rust Belt (OH, IA, MI, WI, and PA), however considering these states are notoriously hard to poll, his approval is probably above water in those states in real Life. Overall, these numbers are devastating for Democrats and show that Trump is on track for reelection, while Democrats are on track to lose several senate seats this year.

Appear to prove. There is no proof of any thesis in the form of any prediction of an upcoming election.

This autumn, there were many polls of states in the southeastern quadrant of the USA in which approval and disapproval of President Trump appeared to approach pulling even. What caused such swift reverses? Sample sizes may be too small or unrepresentative. None of this sampling is as good as statewide polling that offers methodology.

I have no idea of how to use this data.The best that I could do is to cherry-pick, which would be completely untrustworthy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NC, High Point: http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2018/02/56memoA.pdf

41/48 among RV.

38/50 among adults.

[American2020]

Trump Approval Rating among women
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 65%

https://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/trump-approval-among-women-in-decline-1160057411571

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump Approval Rating among women
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 65%

https://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/trump-approval-among-women-in-decline-1160057411571

I wonder what his approval rating among men is.

[twenty42]

Morning Consult Trump Approval by State - January 2018:

Alabama: 63-33
Alaska: 48-47
Arizona: 46-49
Arkansas: 53-40
California: 36-59
Colorado: 41-55
Connecticut: 39-58
District of Columbia: 16-80
Delaware: 41-55
Florida: 50-45
Georgia: 51-44
Hawaii: 30-66
Idaho: 53-42
Illinois: 37-58
Indiana: 48-47
Iowa: 43-53
Kansas: 50-45
Kentucky: 55-40
Louisiana: 57-38
Maine: 40-56
Maryland: 36-59
Massachussets: 32-64
Michigan: 42-52
Minnesota: 41-55
Missouri: 49-47
Montana: 48-48
Nebraska: 51-45
Nevada: 47-48
New Hampshire: 43-53
New Jersey: 40-56
New Mexico: 38-58
New York: 39-57
North Carolina: 47-48
North Dakota: 53-42
Ohio: 46-50
Oklahoma: 55-40
Oregon: 37-57
Pennsylvania: 46-49
Rhode Island: 37-59
South Carolina: 51-44
South Dakota: 53-43
Tennessee: 56-39
Texas: 51-44
Utah: 46-49
Vermont: 30-66
Virginia: 45-49
Washington: 36-59
West Virginia: 59-37
Wisconsin: 42-54
Wyoming: 60-35

Source

If you adjust these ratings to how Trump fared in 2016 (he outperformed his approval ratings by approximately 8% on Election Night), this would be the map if the election were held today...

Trump 292 - Democrat 246

Interesting that he is picking up NV and VA while losing MI, WI, and IA. It looks like the map is reverting back to pre-2016 norms (with the exception of PA).

[Dr. Arch]

@twenty42

1) Never, ever, trust a Nevada poll.

2) If VA is going anywhere with how the political environment is now, it's safe D.

3) The rest seems plausible.

[twenty42]

2) If VA is going anywhere with how the political environment is now, it's safe D.

If Trump crawls into 50% territory in the NPV, Virginia will be very much in play.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

2) If VA is going anywhere with how the political environment is now, it's safe D.

If Trump crawls into 50% territory in the NPV, Virginia will be very much in play.

Unless Trump gets 90% margins and 70% turnout out of Southwest VA, NOVA will once again ensure a D wins here in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult Trump Approval by State - January 2018:

Alabama: 63-33
Alaska: 48-47
Arizona: 46-49
Arkansas: 53-40
California: 36-59
Colorado: 41-55
Connecticut: 39-58
District of Columbia: 16-80
Delaware: 41-55
Florida: 50-45
Georgia: 51-44
Hawaii: 30-66
Idaho: 53-42
Illinois: 37-58
Indiana: 48-47
Iowa: 43-53
Kansas: 50-45
Kentucky: 55-40
Louisiana: 57-38
Maine: 40-56
Maryland: 36-59
Massachusets: 32-64
Michigan: 42-52
Minnesota: 41-55
Missouri: 49-47
Montana: 48-48
Nebraska: 51-45
Nevada: 47-48
New Hampshire: 43-53
New Jersey: 40-56
New Mexico: 38-58
New York: 39-57
North Carolina: 47-48
North Dakota: 53-42
Ohio: 46-50
Oklahoma: 55-40
Oregon: 37-57
Pennsylvania: 46-49
Rhode Island: 37-59
South Carolina: 51-44
South Dakota: 53-43
Tennessee: 56-39
Texas: 51-44
Utah: 46-49
Vermont: 30-66
Virginia: 45-49
Washington: 36-59
West Virginia: 59-37
Wisconsin: 42-54
Wyoming: 60-35

Source

If you adjust these ratings to how Trump fared in 2016 (he outperformed his approval ratings by approximately 8% on Election Night), this would be the map if the election were held today...

Trump 292 - Democrat 246

Interesting that he is picking up NV and VA while losing MI, WI, and IA. It looks like the map is reverting back to pre-2016 norms (with the exception of PA).

I do not expect him to  outperform his approval by 8%. Disapproval will be a ceiling, and if he has disapproval at 49% or higher in any state he will lose it in a binary election -- except Utah. He will lose Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. I have seen some awful polls for him  in Virginia and Arizona.

[136or142]

Morning Consult is f**kin sh**t. That Virginia 46-49 number should disqualify anyone from citing them as anything but R-leaning.

Opinion polls, no matter what the size are accurate '19 times out of 20' (using that as a confidence interval.)  It's not a surprise a few states are going to be somewhat out of whack.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I feel like morning consult is underpolling black people or something. Trumps approval in the states that have a large black population is a lot higher than what you would expect, while his approval in white states is fairly low according to consult.

[LimoLiberal]

I feel like morning consult is underpolling black people or something. Trumps approval in the states that have a large black population is a lot higher than what you would expect, while his approval in white states is fairly low according to consult.

Yeah it's fairly annoying to see some journos hype the sh*t out this poll. It's fairly clear that the poll is majorly flawed in many ways. Just today, they have Trump voters 49-42 in their sample!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's recent bounce in Rasmussen may be fading.  It's 47/52 today, the lowest since Feb. 1 (45/53).

[Gass3268]

Trump's recent bounce in Rasmussen may be fading.  It's 47/52 today, the lowest since Feb. 1 (45/53).

I imagine they don't have a sample that Trump won by 7 points.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Trump is -17 on Ipsos, which 538.com gives an A-minus.

He's -17 on Gallup, which 538.com gives a B-minus.

But he's even on Morning Insult, which 538.com doesn't even give a grade to, and which counts for less than half the weight of Ipsos.

So naturally, guess which poll the media is touting this morning? Yep, you guessed it.

[Gass3268]

PPP:

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source

[BudgieForce]

The fact that he has a 10% approval number among Clinton voters is beyond reasoning with me.

[Person Man]

It really does seem that people are just giving up on the entire Trump thing.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP:

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source

That's rough from a D-leaning firm.