Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Brittain33]

Wow. Great numbers for him in the Midwest. Dems are in big trouble there.

Considering that Heitkamp is still leading in his #2 state and a Dem just won his #5 state...

[Gass3268]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

Wow. Great numbers for him in the Midwest. Dems are in big trouble there.

No, not really. Trump should never be underwater in Indiana or Missouri. Also having net double digit negatives in Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan and almost Iowa is horrible for him. The only state you could say he has even a remotely decent number is Ohio.

[Person Man]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

Wow. Great numbers for him in the Midwest. Dems are in big trouble there.

No, not really. Trump should never be underwater in Indiana or Missouri. Also having net double digit negatives in Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan and almost Iowa is horrible for him. The only state you could say he has even a remotely decent number is Ohio.

Map if he wins everything where he is at least at 43%.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/rB2by

[kph14]

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Wow. Independents in red states are fleeing the sinking ship. His approval ratings basically matches the percentage of Republicans here.

[PoliticalShelter]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Yeah. It's hysterical.

[KingSweden]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Anyone have any theories why that’s the case? The two states are nothing alike

[LimoLiberal]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Anyone have any theories why that’s the case? The two states are nothing alike

Small sample size? Maybe Trump is super popular with Native Americans for some reason?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why do people keep putting their hands in the sand about Georgia? Hillary did far far worse with black people than Obama yet she still improved on Obama's margin by 2% there. Clearly things are changing there fast. She won 18-24 year olds by over 35 pts there for fs sakes.

It's also been trending blue since 2004...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

Wow. Great numbers for him in the Midwest. Dems are in big trouble there.

No, not really. Trump should never be underwater in Indiana or Missouri. Also having net double digit negatives in Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan and almost Iowa is horrible for him. The only state you could say he has even a remotely decent number is Ohio.

These numbers (particularly NY, CA, NJ, PA, WI, and MI) don't bode well for the GOP keeping the House...

[PoliticalShelter]

Small sample size? Maybe Trump is super popular with Native Americans for some reason?

I remember this post not long ago:

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Of course if we compare these to Trump current approval rating, they are not that different; except in Georgia and Texas (but I think Trump approval rating in Texas is being underestimated in this poll I don't believe that his approvals in Texas are worse than they are in Maine).

[KingSweden]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Anyone have any theories why that’s the case? The two states are nothing alike

Small sample size? Maybe Trump is super popular with Native Americans for some reason?

That, or maybe ANWR. Alternatively perhaps he had farther to fall in AR

[forgotten manatee]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/BR8nb

50% plus - safe R
49%-45% - likely R
44%-43% - lean R
42%-39% - lean D
38%-33% - likely D (probably should just be safe D but its purdier this way)
% - safe D

Looks like there could be a realignment going on in the Midwest and Southwest.

[super6646]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

Man he is ed if these numbers hold. Underwater by 15 in Texas, and basically breaking even in South Carolina? I knew trump has had problems with his approvals, but it seems he's been hemorrhageing in the deepest of red states. Swing states aren't better, seeing as only Ohio has him within 5 points of being positive either.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/BR8nb

50% plus - safe R
49%-45% - likely R
44%-43% - lean R
42%-39% - lean D
38%-33% - likely D (probably should just be safe D but its purdier this way)
% - safe D

Looks like there could be a realignment going on in the Midwest and Southwest.

What about NE-02?

[PoliticalShelter]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Anyone have any theories why that’s the case? The two states are nothing alike

States like Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma, did strongly trend towards the GOP when Obama was on the ballot, so I suppose now that Obama is off the ballot they would begin to trend away from the GOP.

I suppose you have to explain West Virginia, which might be explained by the fact that while these southern states may be receptive towards Trump's racial demagoguery, unlike West Virginia these states have a stronger more devout religious following which will be alienated by Trump persona.

Obviously Religious partisan Republicans won't disapprove of Trump, but the average indie in a state like Arkansas is more likely to be put of by Trump's persona than an Independent in West Virginia.

[pbrower2a]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

The average polling from Gallup is from July, so it is already six months old. It could be that President Trump so kisses up to the gravy train of fossil-fuels extraction that he does particularly well in states such as Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wyoming in which fossil fuel  extraction dominates the state's economy. But contrast Kansas and Nebraska, which are much like the two Dakotas except for slight extraction of fossil fuels. Trump likely wins Kansas and Nebraska, but by the narrowest margins in the state's history since 1964.

I see Donald Trump becoming a big disappointment in some states that he won big. President Trump has seen his support crater in the Mountain South and the Deep South. I live in neither,  but I am guessing that he is proving a bad cultural match to both  parts of the South, or perhaps that a populist trend characteristic  of that in which Jimmy Carter won every former Confederate state except Virginia. I'm guessing that Virginia is anti-populist in its heritage. Virginia rejected   Trump in 2016, ironically also being the only former Confederate state to reject him.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/BR8nb

50% plus - safe R
49%-45% - likely R
44%-43% - lean R
42%-39% - lean D
38%-33% - likely D (probably should just be safe D but its purdier this way)
% - safe D

Looks like there could be a realignment going on in the Midwest and Southwest.

Wishful thinking for a Republican.  The high disapproval numbers look like sure things for a Democrat with no strong challenge on the Left as a Third Party. I see President Trump more vulnerable to a Third Party challenge on the Right in 2020.

Why do people keep putting their hands in the sand about Georgia? Hillary did far far worse with black people than Obama yet she still improved on Obama's margin by 2% there. Clearly things are changing there fast. She won 18-24 year olds by over 35 pts there for fs sakes.

It's also been trending blue since 2004...

See also Arizona and Texas.

Well-educated white suburbanite voted for Obama except in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. Th9ose exceptions could vanish in 2020.

By the way  -- Texas used to be infamous for pretentious ignoramuses, loud-mouths who would have been wiser to keep their mouths closed just to protect their images. That is over. Texas has  its share of well-educated white people, and they may be rejecting Trump.




  











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[ProgressiveCanadian]

LOL at Indiana being more anti-trump than Ohio.

[Dr. Arch]

LOL at Indiana being more anti-trump than Ohio.

Yeah, that was actually the most surprising tidbit of this list.

[Tintrlvr]

Its funny how Trumps approval rating in Alaska, which is supposed to be the next big swing state is the same in Arkansas a state that is supposed to be completely safe republican.

Its Especially funny, considering Trump won Alaska by a margin of 15 Points but won Arkansas by a margin of 27 points.

Anyone have any theories why that’s the case? The two states are nothing alike

Small sample size? Maybe Trump is super popular with Native Americans for some reason?

That, or maybe ANWR. Alternatively perhaps he had farther to fall in AR

It's just noise. Don't think about it too hard. Alaska is especially difficult to poll, too, so a national pollster is not going to do very well there.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

If these numbers hold, Trump will lose by double digits in 2020.

[henster]

OK these are a poll of adults not RV voters and in some low turnout states like TX the difference between Adults/RV are going to be stark.

[King Lear]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 56%
These are great numbers for Trump, if you take his 43% approval and combine it with those that lie to pollsters but really support him, he’s in perfect position to win the Electoral College and possibly even the popular vote as well.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 56%
These are great numbers for Trump, if you take his 43% approval and combine it with those that lie to pollsters but really support him, he’s in perfect position to win the Electoral College and possibly even the popular vote as well.

We've seen no evidence that people who support Trump lie to pollsters, and on top of this, I'm sure you realize Rasmussen is a very R-leaning, and generally poor, pollster. also lol at -13 being a good approval rating for Trump coming from an R-leaning pollster.

[Holmes]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 56%
These are great numbers for Trump, if you take his 43% approval and combine it with those that lie to pollsters but really support him, he’s in perfect position to win the Electoral College and possibly even the popular vote as well.

You must be so excited.