Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[BudgieForce]

Being -8 in North Carolina is "great"?

Approval ratings aren't binary. It's not underwater=bad and above water=good. It matters how high above the water or underwater Trump is, not just if he is. In a state he won by 3.7 points, being underwater by 8 points is great for him, considering he's underwater nationally by 16 points.

That's not how that works. At all.

[Gass3268]

Being -8 in North Carolina is "great"?

Approval ratings aren't binary. It's not underwater=bad and above water=good. It matters how high above the water or underwater Trump is, not just if he is. In a state he won by 3.7 points, being underwater by 8 points is great for him, considering he's underwater nationally by 16 points.

That's not how that works. At all.

[UncleSam]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

[Gass3268]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

PPP's polls have been right of center during the entire Trump presidency.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

Governor Ed Gillespie agrees with you.

[Dr. Arch]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

Governor Ed Gillespie agrees with you.

[BudgieForce]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

I know. But extrapolating that -8 in a light red state won by +4 as "great" is questionable logic.

[kph14]

Being -8 in North Carolina is "great"?

Approval ratings aren't binary. It's not underwater=bad and above water=good. It matters how high above the water or underwater Trump is, not just if he is. In a state he won by 3.7 points, being underwater by 8 points is great for him, considering he's underwater nationally by 16 points.

He lost the nationwide popular vote by 2 and is now 14 points further underwater. He won NC by 4 and is now 12 points lower. I don't see a substantial overperformance. He's exactly where you would expect him to be...

[Gass3268]

The Trump collapse continues:

NBC/Survey Monkey:

41% Approve (-1)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source

[King Lear]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

Confirmed: Lear and Limo are the same user.

[Sestak]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

I think Senator Roy Moore has something to say about that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

You're not going to get a girlfriend by posting 13 times a day on atlas.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

Confirmed: Lear and Limo are the same user.

I've been saying that for weeks

[Mr. Morden]

I bet this drives him crazy.

My question about this is, what is the normal amount of time it takes for voters to hold the president accountable for the state of the economy?  What is the past polling on this?  Instinctively, I would assume that if you’re only, say, a month into a new president’s term, the voters are still going to say that the previous president is more responsible for the state of the nation than the brand new president is.

Eventually, that’s going to change though, and I’m not sure what the normal timescale is.  The Trump-friendly reading of the above is that this poll is promising in the sense that Trump’s current bad numbers are a consequence of his Trumpiness rather than economic fundamentals, and that *eventually*, as Obama fades from memory, voters will put more responsibility for the state of the economy on Trump.  And so, even if the economy never actually gets any better than it is now, Trump’s numbers could rise once he gets more credit for it.

[The Mikado]

Uh

That is how it works guys lol

Doing better than one would expect based on national numbers in competitive states is literally how Trump won

I know. But extrapolating that -8 in a light red state won by +4 as "great" is questionable logic.

Pretty much this. Trump doing 11-12 worse than he did on election day in a must-win state is not something for Republicans to be cheerful about.

[BoAtlantis]

I bet this drives him crazy.

My question about this is, what is the normal amount of time it takes for voters to hold the president accountable for the state of the economy?  What is the past polling on this?  Instinctively, I would assume that if you’re only, say, a month into a new president’s term, the voters are still going to say that the previous president is more responsible for the state of the nation than the brand new president is.

Eventually, that’s going to change though, and I’m not sure what the normal timescale is.  The Trump-friendly reading of the above is that this poll is promising in the sense that Trump’s current bad numbers are a consequence of his Trumpiness rather than economic fundamentals, and that *eventually*, as Obama fades from memory, voters will put more responsibility for the state of the economy on Trump.  And so, even if the economy never actually gets any better than it is now, Trump’s numbers could rise once he gets more credit for it.

Even controlling for partisan differences, I assume that voters lean toward crediting the president immediately. This is based on educated guess that voters have short memory.

Trump's case is unique because he is his own enemy. If he never compared himself to Obama or was not tweeting braggadociously about the economy, then he would have gotten more credit from the beginning.

It's comparable to how an athlete that brags about how many trophies he's won tends to not be given much credit because fans dislike him. When he's modest about it, fans give him credit.

[Mr. Morden]

Even controlling for partisan differences, I assume that voters lean toward crediting the president immediately. This is based on educated guess that voters have short memory.

I would really like to see what the track record is on this though.  How much correlation is there between a president's job approval rating and the performance of the economy just a year into their presidency, vs. how big is the correlation once you're three or four years into their term?

[IceSpear]

Michigan: Detroit News Poll

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/22/donald-trump-michigan-poll-approval/109726082/

Approve: 39.5
Disapprove: 54

Slightly better than his national approval ratings. Good sign for Trump in the Midwest.

Yeah, being -15 in a state you won is always excellent news.

[Holmes]

Apparently a Fox News poll tomorrow will show good numbers for Trump. Maybe.

[BudgieForce]

Apparently a Fox News poll tomorrow will show good numbers for Trump. Maybe.

Got a link?

[Holmes]

Apparently a Fox News poll tomorrow will show good numbers for Trump. Maybe.

Got a link?

Just heard it through the grapevine. I also heard it might have a caveat though.

[BudgieForce]

Apparently a Fox News poll tomorrow will show good numbers for Trump. Maybe.

Got a link?

Just heard it through the grapevine. I also heard it might have a caveat though.

Hmph. Alright then.

[LimoLiberal]

Apparently a Fox News poll tomorrow will show good numbers for Trump. Maybe.

Got a link?

Just heard it through the grapevine. I also heard it might have a caveat though.

Which grapevine?

[Biden Stans Are Cringelords]

Another great poll for Trump. Partisan pollster PPP only find him underwater by 8 points in North Carolina, completely invalidating the Georgia poll that showed him 22 points underwater.

North Carolina, PPP

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

These numbers are amazing for Trump, remember that many people lie to pollsters (especially Republicans), and that I currently rate North Carolina Lean Republican (along with Florida and Arizona) in the 2020 presidential election.

This isn't even clever trolling. Genuine Democrats or just leftists in general wouldn't spend literally all their time unskewing polls in the opposite side's favor.