Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Brittain33]

TAX REFORM BUMP: GOP SUPERMAJORITY IMMINENT

Gallup at 36/58. Stellar numbers

Interesting. Good news for Trump. Tax reform bump

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Wow. Massive Tax Reform Bump in Gallup.

Welcome to the Land of Ignore, LimoLiberal!

[kyc0705]

Re: LimoLiberal, Isn't the whole point of putting people like them on ignore so that you don't have to engage with their posts in any way? Quoting them defeats the purpose.

[windjammer]

Trump at 30% approval in a state he got 31% in. Great poll for him. Tax Reform Bump evident.
http://news.berkeley.edu/story_jump/after-almost-a-year-how-do-californians-really-feel-about-donald-trump/

That's 30-66, his worst ever by this pollster, and only two other Presidents (Nixon as his Presidency was collapsing and Dubya in July 2008) ever got lower than Trump is now. Carter didn't fare as badly in California as the hostage situation dragged on in 1980 -- and then, California was a Republican-leaning state.

It's hardly surprising that President Trump fares badly in California.

This is a university poll with a heritage (University of California Institute of Governmental Studies), and the historical data is itself interesting even if another poll of California is superfluous. Of course I would rather see a poll of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, or Missouri.


This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

Shouldn't TX be red? I believe Trump is unpopular in TX.

[Blackacre]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Future blue state Arkansas.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Bad numbers. Some of these states are some of the most inelastic in the nation. Could produce some really interesting results in the next couple of years.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Trump's blue-collar supporters are ditching him.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

This data, I regret to say, will not appear upon my map. My focus is upon disapproval, a powerful measure of the unelectability of this President. Basically I use 100-DIS, an estimate of a ceiling of the Trump vote in 2020.It is extremely difficult to undo disapproval.

Turning undecided potential voters into sympathetic voters? That is why politicians campaign for re-election. Governing or legislating does not keep an approval at the level of the vote in the last election. Politicians on the average a loss of approval of about 7% from the electoral result to a typical level of approval deep into the pol's term.  For President Trump, who started the Presidency with about 46% of the national vote, it is hardly be surprising that he had gotten nationl approval ratings just under 40% by the summer. But that is not too bad enough. to ensure defeat in 2020. He could in theory campaign as effectively in 2020 as in 2016, lose by 30% margins in states like New York and California, but barely win such states as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and lo and behold:he will be re-elected!

But -- if he is substandard at what a President does, then his approval ratings sink even more, and no campaign can rescue his re-election bid. At this point he would clearly lose Virginia and be agonizingly close in Florida and North Carolina.  He would of course struggle in Texas.

... and this is before I see any disapproval ratings which may be even more definitive. I have some ugly numbers of Trump disapproval in Florida and North Carolina.

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

lol

[junior chįmp]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

Biggest bump Trump has gotten since he caught da genital warts

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

Obviously not a daily fluctuation... something we have seen happen MANY times.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Just because the don't like the job he's doing doesn't mean they won't vote for him again, because they think he's better than the woman, the guy with brown skin, or just because he'll piss of the educated, intelligence, empathic segment of society.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

The tax reform bump is real. Trump only being at 57% disapproval is going to be yuge for midterms.

[Holmes]

50-43 approval in KY.

http://m.wave3.com/wave/db_336805/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=fFRTaxUV

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/23

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

[LimoLiberal]

He's getting a legimate, huge, TAX REFORM BUMP on Gallup. Up 8 net points in the last three days.

[BudgieForce]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

[LimoLiberal]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

Horrible Heitkamp Careless Claire and the Job-killer Joes should be quaking their boots right now.

[BudgieForce]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

Theres a science about not polling over holiday weekends. Regardless of the results, your right that we should wait till mid January to see if the Tax Bill has actually caused any approval improvement. We probably wont get any decent polling until then anyway so it wont be hard.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

Horrible Heitkamp Careless Claire and the Job-killer Joes should be quaking their boots right now.

You're a rightwing troll. Change your avatar and be honest with people.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

Horrible Heitkamp Careless Claire and the Job-killer Joes should be quaking their boots right now.

You're a rightwing troll. Change your avatar and be honest with people.

The pot and the kettle, much?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

Horrible Heitkamp Careless Claire and the Job-killer Joes should be quaking their boots right now.

You're a rightwing troll. Change your avatar and be honest with people.

The pot and the kettle, much?

I'm a republican and not a troll. I would have voted for Kim Guadagno back in November if I was still registered in New Jersey. I also voted for Johnny Isakson and Drew Ferguson (both R's) in 2016.

Just cuz I don't support a fat orange doofus or a clearly incompetent GOP congress right now doesn't mean I'm not republican. I don't have to support garbage just because they're in the same party as me.