Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[forgotten manatee]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

[Dr. Arch]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

I think they were more Anti-Hillary than anything, and I can see why. She did little to appeal to them directly.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

Both Clinton and Trump were terrible fits for Iowa. Bernie probably would of carried Iowa by a fair margin.

[forgotten manatee]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

I think they were more Anti-Hillary than anything, and I can see why. She did little to appeal to them directly.

Iowans definitely don't like Hillary, but it is disgusting to think that they preferred Trump given how un-Iowan he is. Old wounds I suppose, but 2016 has been a hard demon to exorcise.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

Both Clinton and Trump were terrible fits for Iowa. Bernie probably would of carried Iowa by a fair margin.

On this I agree with you. Sanders would have done much better than Clinton in mostly white states like Iowa and Wisconsin, but would've done worse in more diverse states.

[Devout Centrist]

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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/12/14/iowa-poll-60-percent-iowans-disapprove-donald-trumps-job-performance/945229001/

Holy Moly

[pbrower2a]

Trump refuses to believe his low poll numbers:



2018 is gonna be so good

The only opinion Trump really cares about is his own, therefore he has 100% approval.

What could be more definitive than an exit poll? To not be in deep political trouble, a Republican President needs to have an approval rating near 60% in this, a state that has been "Safe R" since 2000.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/12/14/iowa-poll-60-percent-iowans-disapprove-donald-trumps-job-performance/945229001/

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

B-but I was told Iowa is now as red as Vermont in the 1930s???

Disapproval of the President has typically been in the low 50s, which has not been good for the President. Republicans can be glad that neither of their Senators is up for re-election in the toxic environment of 2018. Iowa has gone for the Democratic nominee for President in five of the last seven Presidential elections, and this suggests that Iowa is almost as hostile to Trump as California or Massachusetts. Iowa is usually a swing state; it was the tipping point state in the near-landslide of Obama in 2008.

Don't complain about the pollster; it's Selzer for the Des Moines Register. Selzer is one of the best-recognized pollsters in America.

Two states that could hardly be more different in their politics  suggest a collapse for Trump support. 

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[Sumner 1868]

What is the source for the above map? If his disapproval rating in Iowa is this high, then I doubt he has net approval in Alaska and Montana. I also would imagine he would have higher disapproval in Maine by now.

[Pericles]

Trump's approval has been falling in the 538 tracker, he was at 37.8% a week ago, now he's 1.1% less than that at 36.6%. In RCP he lost 1.5% over the last week from 38.5% to 37.0%. What is causing this change?

[Adam Griffin]

Trump's approval has been falling in the 538 tracker, he was at 37.8% a week ago, now he's 1.1% less than that at 36.6%. In RCP he lost 1.5% over the last week from 38.5% to 37.0%. What is causing this change?

Looks like he's at 36.7% approval in 538's model presently, which is only 0.1 point off of his worst day ever.

[BlueSwan]

Trump's approval has been falling in the 538 tracker, he was at 37.8% a week ago, now he's 1.1% less than that at 36.6%. In RCP he lost 1.5% over the last week from 38.5% to 37.0%. What is causing this change?

Looks like he's at 36.7% approval in 538's model presently, which is only 0.1 point off of his worst day ever.

Hoping for a new record low tomorrow!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looking at the 538 tracker Trump hasn't been above 40% since the aftermath of the Comey firing (was at 42/52 on 8th May and dipped to 39/55 by the 19th), his best being 39.7% on the 25th September following the good coverage from Hurricane Irma. I suspect those voters might be unreachable now barring some gamechanging foreign policy crisis. How could Trump realistically win them back next year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is favorability, not approval, but it's still interesting.

Suffolk, Dec 5-9, 1000 RV (change from Oct)

Favorable 34 (nc)
Unfavorable 58 (+1)

The one that jumps out to me is Trump's favorability among Fox viewers:

June 90/5 
Oct 74/23
Dec 58/37

[Gass3268]

Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

[Gass3268]

Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

Damn it why didn't they release Senate head-to-heads

Doesn't look like they tested that.

[pbrower2a]

What is the source for the above map? If his disapproval rating in Iowa is this high, then I doubt he has net approval in Alaska and Montana. I also would imagine he would have higher disapproval in Maine by now.

This is a map of the most recent credible approval ratings of the President in the states. Because of recent gubernatorial and senatorial elections in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia we have seen plenty of polls for those states (although I expect that to slow down greatly). The oldest polling data is from collections of polling data from states as applied to tracking polls over perhaps three months or so. If those polls are from July to September I assign them to mid-August and maintain polls from mid-August or later.

Credibility of a pollster is rarely an issue. There are push polls intended to change an interviewee's mind, and there are polls commissioned by special interests such as trade associations, labor unions, and political parties.

If disapproval for the President is now at 60%  in Iowa and at 48% in Alabama, then mass sentiment in both states is definitely not where it was a year ago. But we need not be stupid. There are states (Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and South Carolina) with similar economics and political cultures. Iowa's demographics are similar to those of Minnesota and Wisconsin, so I would expect polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin to move in tandem with Iowa. I would expect Wisconsin to show a disapproval of the President around 60% and Minnesota above 60%. To this I can discuss Michigan, which has one of the largest percentages of black people north of the Mason-Dixon line, but is otherwise like Iowa.    

I expect changes in any polling of Ohio and Pennsylvania, should we get any new polling. Ohio usually travels politically with, of all states, Florida... see the '59' on Florida?

My map does not show polling data as I predict it to appear in this series of maps. The best that I could do as a prediction would be to contrast recent polling against Cook PVI values (based upon the assumption of a 50-50 split in voting, which is sort of OK for 2008 but good for all other elections beginning in 2000,  and extrapolate such to states for which I have no recent data.  

Ooh... I have talked myself into a project.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Cmon using the 48% disapproval figure for Alabama is silly. We all know that was because democrats turned out far better than republicans on election day because of unique factors (Roy Moore being very toxic to other would-be Republican).

(Also please don't use that 47% disapproval from that Tennessee poll... that is a very big outlier. A recent Tennessee poll that polled Bredsen vs Blackburn had 52% approval 41% disapproval for Trump.)

[Holmes]

Cmon using the 48% disapproval figure for Alabama is silly. We all know that was because democrats turned out far better than republicans on election day because of unique factors (Roy Moore being very toxic to other would-be Republican).

(Also please don't use that 47% disapproval from that Tennessee poll... that is a very big outlier. A recent Tennessee poll that polled Bredsen vs Blackburn had 52% approval 41% disapproval for Trump.)

I kind of agree, but at the same time, we want to know how his approvals among voters affect the results, and that 48-48 figure was literally his approval rating among the voters that showed up 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/13

Approve 36 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

[Gass3268]

Cmon using the 48% disapproval figure for Alabama is silly. We all know that was because democrats turned out far better than republicans on election day because of unique factors (Roy Moore being very toxic to other would-be Republican).

(Also please don't use that 47% disapproval from that Tennessee poll... that is a very big outlier. A recent Tennessee poll that polled Bredsen vs Blackburn had 52% approval 41% disapproval for Trump.)

I'd average the two together. Even Though I imagine Vanderbilt is a better pollster than Gravis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

Strongly 21/47, same as last week.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I can show how states now diverge from Cook PVI. For example, Trump would probably lose Minnesota 51-49 in a 50-50 election in 2020. But the polling map above suggests that he would lose Minnesota by a margin of 54-46.  That suggests that Minnesota alone would indicate a 53-47 national election. Trump would lose what he lost to Hillary Clinton, but also lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and ME-02. Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio would be iffy, capable of going either way as effective ties.

But that is one of the milder results. Neighboring Iowa is about R+3, and Trump would lose it 60-40.  That is a 13-point swing, one of the largest.  In such a scenario you would see the Democrat picking up what I have in the 'Minnesota as telling swing' scenario... obviously Iowa, but also

North Carolina
Ohio
Arizona
Georgia
South Carolina
Texas
Indiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Louisiana
Montana

...and Kansas would be on the brink of flipping.

Alabama is a shift of 12 -- a big one.

I am in no position to say which state shift best marks how America will go in 2020. State characteristics may decide how individual states go.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why are you cherrypicking the worst Tennessee poll for Trump? He had 52% approval 41% disapproval in the Gravis poll that was just done today.

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/

I think you should take the average of the two for Tennessee.

I'm getting on your case about this because I'd rather a more complete and consistent list rather than just the latest poll (or in Tennesee's case, least favorable towards Trump).

[pbrower2a]

Even 52% approval for Trump in Tennessee indicates big trouble for him.

[Badger]

I'm sure Democrats will blow this somehow.

The typical pants-s**tters have been saying this about every election since Georgia and they've been wrong every time.

We haven't had a race not in a Democratic area until yesterday's freak accident election.

I'm sure Democrats will blow this somehow.

Jesus, I thought you people would disappear for a while after last night.

Barely defeating a child molester is no victory.

lmao, one of the best parts of last night is seeing all the whiners (the ones that were preparing to post screeds about how Jones lost because he wasn't progressive enough) not be able to enjoy the smug indignity that a Moore victory would've brought them

I didn't think Jones would lose because of not being progressive. I thought he would lose because this is extreme right Alabama. The mud was just enough for him to sneak through.

"Mud", as in "mudslinging", implies the mud is fake or dishonest smears.....