Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[HisGrace]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

[junior chįmp]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

Trump and the GOP are done!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Trump and the GOP are done!

It looks bad for them in the long term, but in the meantime, how long do we have to put up with their madness? They're like the dinosaur in the movies that gets their head cut off but continues to stumble around and break things.

[junior chįmp]

Trump and the GOP are done!

It looks bad for them in the long term, but in the meantime, how long do we have to put up with their madness? They're like the dinosaur in the movies that gets their head cut off but continues to stumble around and break things.

I used to say on here many months ago that the GOP is heading for a crackup the way Democrats did during Carter. Except that the GOP's hubris is even more over the top. My guess is that they know theyre finished and are trying to legislate their donors wish lists before they get thrown out of office

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump and the GOP are done!

It looks bad for them in the long term, but in the meantime, how long do we have to put up with their madness? They're like the dinosaur in the movies that gets their head cut off but continues to stumble around and break things.

I used to say on here many months ago that the GOP is heading for a crackup the way Democrats did during Carter. Except that the GOP's hubris is even more over the top. My guess is that they know theyre finished and are trying to legislate their donors wish lists before they get thrown out of office

True about the Congressional Republicans being tossed out by the voters, but Trump will get dragged out of office in handcuffs by the FBI.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump and the GOP are done!

It looks bad for them in the long term, but in the meantime, how long do we have to put up with their madness? They're like the dinosaur in the movies that gets their head cut off but continues to stumble around and break things.

I used to say on here many months ago that the GOP is heading for a crackup the way Democrats did during Carter. Except that the GOP's hubris is even more over the top. My guess is that they know theyre finished and are trying to legislate their donors wish lists before they get thrown out of office

True about the Congressional Republicans being tossed out by the voters, but Trump will get dragged out of office in handcuffs by the FBI.

That would never happen even if he were indicted.  Mueller has too much class for something like that.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

Trump and the GOP are done!

Barring electoral fraud on a scale or manner characteristic of most of eastern Europe between 1945 and 1989, Donald Trump cannot get re-elected. Gerrymandering of House seats gives Republicans an edge that would help them in a near-even election, but could hurt them badly in a wave election.

About a day from now (12/12/2017, approaching midnight) we could have one of the strongest possible indicators of a wave against the GOP (Doug Jones winning a Senate seat in Alabama?)  We could also have nothing at all.  

But let's not forget: the GOP is consummately ruthless and unprincipled.  

...If you are thinking that the current situation could lead to the electoral demise of the GOP, then wait at least twelve years unless the Party folds or splinters. Republicans took an electoral beating every electoral year from 1930 to 1944, only to win a House majority in 1948 and the Presidency in 1952. I might want to show how similar the electoral maps of 1928 and 1952 (or 1956) were.    

[Bandit3 the Worker]

...If you are thinking that the current situation could lead to the electoral demise of the GOP, then wait at least twelve years unless the Party folds or splinters. Republicans took an electoral beating every electoral year from 1930 to 1944, only to win a House majority in 1948 and the Presidency in 1952. I might want to show how similar the electoral maps of 1928 and 1952 (or 1956) were.    

Eisenhower wasn't totally off his rocker though. Parties die when they get too extreme. Who wants to associate themselves with today's GOP? This creates sort of a death spiral for the party.

[Badger]

Great poll for Trump. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/colorado-political-landscape/

Only -20 in approval in Colorado, a state with a disproportionate amount of Latinos and college educated whites, not to mention that he lost it by 5 points. He should be down by much more, but this suggests his national approval rating is only about -13 or so, and rising.

So what part of Russia do you live in? Is it nice?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Great poll for Trump. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/colorado-political-landscape/

Only -20 in approval in Colorado, a state with a disproportionate amount of Latinos and college educated whites, not to mention that he lost it by 5 points. He should be down by much more, but this suggests his national approval rating is only about -13 or so, and rising.

So what part of Russia do you live in? Is it nice?

He can't say. His basement has no windows.

[American2020]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

Trump and the GOP are done!

I'd also add this quote from David Brooks.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/07/opinion/the-gop-is-rotting.html?_r=1

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

At this point, approval and favorability can't be far off from each other.

Colorado, Keating Research. 35-64 favorable.unfavorable.  The unfavorable figure was 55% in March.

Others: Senators Bennett (D) 57%, Gardner (R)
44% favorability.

California, Public Policy Institute
Nov 10-19 (Last poll Sept. 27)

All adults
Trump approval: 28% (+1)
Trump disapproval: 68% (-1)
Undecided: 5% (+1)

Likely voters
Trump approval: 34% (+3)
Trump disapproval: 63% (-3)
Undecided: 3%

P.S. -- I have been polled in Michigan. It is a favorability poll, but it is hard to distinguish the meaning between favorability and approval at this point.

Using "likely voters" for California...  

An update on Colorado. I would rather would rather see an approval poll for some other state, but here I have an approval poll of Colorado that supplants a favorability poll.  PPP, which does a great quantity of statewide  polling and of a wider variety of states than anyone else, has the President's approval at 36% and disapproval at 56%. I prefer approval or some other measure of achievement as opposed to liking and disliking.  The difference between apples and oranges, that is between unfavorability by one pollster and disapproval by another is huge, and the 64% unfavorable rating of the older poll could have been an exaggeration. Between favorability and approval the difference is really slight.

55% disapproval is utterly awful in what has usually been understood as a swing state since the 1990s. Maybe Colorado isn't a swing state anymore. Or is it? This isn't far from some national tracking polls. Colorado may not be the problem for Donald Trump.     

Colorado, PPP: approval 36%, disapproval 56%

 
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ColoradoPoll121117.pdf

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

Wait, why is he so popular in Louisiana?

[junior chįmp]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

Trump and the GOP are done!

I'd also add this quote from David Brooks.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/07/opinion/the-gop-is-rotting.html?_r=1

I've spent a good deal of my time reading demographics. Brooks knows the GOP is finished. Theyre not coming back from this for a generation....if ever. 2018 is the beginning of the descent and while the GOP may on occasion regain control of Congress, the narrative will have shifted so far to the left that their going to be too boxed in to legislation the far right garbage legislation they've been dishing out this year. Good riddance to the such a lousy political party

[Virginiá]

Gallup (December 11th)

Approve 35% (nc)
Disapprove 60% (nc)

[Virginiá]

I've spent a good deal of my time reading demographics. Brooks knows the GOP is finished. Theyre not coming back from this for a generation....if ever. 2018 is the beginning of the descent and while the GOP may on occasion regain control of Congress, the narrative will have shifted so far to the left that their going to be too boxed in to legislation the far right garbage legislation they've been dishing out this year. Good riddance to the such a lousy political party

If history is any guide, the party will just end up moving back to the center after a prolonged period in the wilderness. After losing 3 or 4 presidential elections and not being able to claw back a Congressional majority despite a Democratic midterm would put massive pressure on the party to conform to the new majority consensus.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/11

No change from yesterday (35/60).

[American2020]

Marist (December 4th - December 7th, 2017)


National Registered Voters
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure: 6%

Region
Northeast: 28% 64% 8%
Midwest: 42% 48% 10%
South: 45% 49% 7%
West: 29% 67% 4%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3

[American2020]

3 reasons Trump's approval ratings are so bad

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/3-reasons-trumps-approval-ratings-are-so-bad/article/2643245

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Marist (December 4th - December 7th, 2017)


National Registered Voters
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure: 6%

Region
Northeast: 28% 64% 8%
Midwest: 42% 48% 10%
South: 45% 49% 7%
West: 29% 67% 4%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3

That is brutal...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist (December 4th - December 7th, 2017)


National Registered Voters
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure: 6%

Region
Northeast: 28% 64% 8%
Midwest: 42% 48% 10%
South: 45% 49% 7%
West: 29% 67% 4%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3

Interestingly, the RV approval stayed the same from last month at 39/55.  But approval among all adults dropped from 39/53 to 37/36.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Dec 6-11, 1211 RV

Approve 37 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 49 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

...If you are thinking that the current situation could lead to the electoral demise of the GOP, then wait at least twelve years unless the Party folds or splinters. Republicans took an electoral beating every electoral year from 1930 to 1944, only to win a House majority in 1948 and the Presidency in 1952. I might want to show how similar the electoral maps of 1928 and 1952 (or 1956) were.    

Eisenhower wasn't totally off his rocker though. Parties die when they get too extreme. Who wants to associate themselves with today's GOP? This creates sort of a death spiral for the party.

The Parties have so changed in their orientations since the 1950s that by 2012, Obama did not win a single state that Eisenhower lost. Hawaii and DC did not vote in the Presidential elections of 1952 or 1956. Three states that Ike won both years (Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island) have since been difficult states for Republicans to win. Minnesota was the worst state (and only loss) for Reagan in 1984; Massachusetts was Reagan's second-worst state that year. The opposite was true in 1972, when Nixon lost Massachusetts  but won even his second-weakest state (Minnesota). Not since 1924 had any Republican won all three states and not since 1956 has any Republican won all three states together in any Presidential election.

Eisenhower and Obama must have had similarities of behavior and temperament that fit the Northeast and the Far West very well. I might retrieve the map, but I am about to start on another project.

[pbrower2a]

Marist (December 4th - December 7th, 2017)


National Registered Voters
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure: 6%

Region
Northeast: 28% 64% 8%
Midwest: 42% 48% 10%
South: 45% 49% 7%
West: 29% 67% 4%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3

Guessing what the regions are:

[forgotten manatee]

3 reasons Trump's approval ratings are so bad

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There's also the fact that he is a corrupt, idiotic pig who is completely unfit for office and never should've been nominated let alone elected. He's also a farter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, Dec 10-12, 806 adults (change from Sept)

Approve 32 (-8)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

Record (by far) low approval and high disapproval for this poll.

Generic Congressional ballot: 51 D, 36 R