Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 36% (+-0)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

[henster]

Poll of active duty troops, 44/40 favorable/unfavorable, big divide between enlisted and officers.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2017/10/23/military-times-poll-what-you-really-think-about-trump/#.We617FI69Mt.twitter

[pbrower2a]

Poll of active duty troops, 44/40 favorable/unfavorable, big divide between enlisted and officers.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2017/10/23/military-times-poll-what-you-really-think-about-trump/#.We617FI69Mt.twitter

Among officers: 31% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

It is nearly impossible to become a commissioned officer without having a college degree. That itself is a huge cultural difference reflected in polls in America as a whole.

[Gustaf]

Given how the army is disproportionately white, male and non-educated this is pretty bad isn't it?

[Brittain33]

Given how the army is disproportionately white

Is it?

[Gustaf]

Given how the army is disproportionately white

Is it?

Isn't it? At least this poll certainly was, but maybe it isn't representative.

[pbrower2a]

Given how the army is disproportionately white

Is it?

The Armed Services are close to a cross section of American life, except for the economic elites and the mentally and physically disabled, in ethnicity and class origin. They offer about as genuine equal opportunity as any government agency, let alone private business. Base communities are close to the nationwide ethnic mix as any others. Enlisted personnel might be drawn heavily from poorer, less-well-educated people, but consider that the Armed Services offer vocational training and formal education to people who might otherwise not get them. Getting a four-year degree before enlisting practically ensured that once one gets through basic training, one need not spend much time in the lower ranks -- and most people who already have a degree get military commissions anyway.  On the other side, the military insists upon people having the high-school diploma; high-school dropouts have shown themselves as the overwhelming majority of disciplinary problems.  

[Virginiá]

Gallup (October 24th)

Approve 36% (nc)
Disapprove 59% (+1)

[Tintrlvr]

Given how the army is disproportionately white

Is it?

Isn't it? At least this poll certainly was, but maybe it isn't representative.

I think unrepresentative, although maybe it's an issue of having a large enough sample-size at the officer level, which certainly is disproportionately white. The Army is disproportionately minority. Not wildly so, but enough to be noticeable.

http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2015-Demographics-Report.pdf (PDF)

See page 57/223. Doesn't break it down by race, but the Army is 33% "racial minorities" (which does not include Hispanic/Latino persons), less than the Navy (39%) but more than the Air Force (28%) or the Marine Corps (20%) and more than the nation as a whole (26%). Generally speaking, blacks are substantially overrepresented in the Army and the Navy in particular, although Hispanics and Asians (and other groups that are heavily recent immigrants) are somewhat underrepresented.

[pbrower2a]

The Morning Consult polls might be a bit too favorable for Trump. That will work itself out.

[Brittain33]

Fox News (vs. Sept.)

Approve: 38 (-4)
Disapprove: 57 (+4).

Strongly Disapprove is 49%.
"Some of the drop comes from white men without a college degree, as 56 percent approve of the president, down from 68 percent last month.  Working-class white men were a key voting bloc for him in the election (71 percent backed Trump according to the Fox News Exit Poll)."

Headline blames nature LOL.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/25/fox-news-poll-storms-erode-trumps-ratings.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News (vs. Sept.)

Approve: 38 (-4)
Disapprove: 57 (+4).

Strongly Disapprove is 49%.
"Some of the drop comes from white men without a college degree, as 56 percent approve of the president, down from 68 percent last month.  Working-class white men were a key voting bloc for him in the election (71 percent backed Trump according to the Fox News Exit Poll)."

Headline blames nature LOL.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/25/fox-news-poll-storms-erode-trumps-ratings.html

Katrina hurt Bush.

Sandy helped Obama.

This year's hurricanes hurt Trump.

Apparently God prefers Democratic presidents.

[Yank2133]

Fox News (vs. Sept.)

Approve: 38 (-4)
Disapprove: 57 (+4).

Strongly Disapprove is 49%.
"Some of the drop comes from white men without a college degree, as 56 percent approve of the president, down from 68 percent last month.  Working-class white men were a key voting bloc for him in the election (71 percent backed Trump according to the Fox News Exit Poll)."

Headline blames nature LOL.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/25/fox-news-poll-storms-erode-trumps-ratings.html

Katrina hurt Bush.

Sandy helped Obama.

This year's hurricanes hurt Trump.

Apparently God prefers Democratic presidents.

God prefers presidents who don't  up hurricane responses.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News (vs. Sept.)

Approve: 38 (-4)
Disapprove: 57 (+4).

Strongly Disapprove is 49%.
"Some of the drop comes from white men without a college degree, as 56 percent approve of the president, down from 68 percent last month.  Working-class white men were a key voting bloc for him in the election (71 percent backed Trump according to the Fox News Exit Poll)."

Headline blames nature LOL.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/25/fox-news-poll-storms-erode-trumps-ratings.html

Just look at the hideous number for "Strongly Disapprove". Just under half!

Blaming the weather? Obama did well in meeting tornadoes for which there is no preparation other than general readiness.

[Gass3268]

Trump underwater in Indiana:

Old National Bank/Ball State University 2017 Hoosier Survey

41% Approve
45% Disapprove

Source

[pbrower2a]

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)

How is it that Trump is not underwater in Florida? The reverse of the Cuban Thaw?

Update:

Bill Nelson: 37
Rick Scott:  36
Other: 7
Don't know: 20

Poll taken Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct. 17, with 838 completed surveys from Florida registered voters. In February, the same group had Nelson 44/Scott 38.

http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wjct/files/201710/ScottTrumpSurveyResults.docx_.pdf

Approval ratings:
Trump: 37/59
Rubio: 42/37
Nelson: 35/15
Scott: 59/28 (was 46/40 in February, so clearly a big hurricane bump)

Also polled: confederate statutes, legal immigration support, government influence in healthcare.

(focus is on the Senate race).

This is unusually bad for Donald Trump, too, which may reflect the bungled relief effort to the hurricane in Puerto Rico. No way should Florida ordinarily be close to Illinois or Virginia in disapproval of the President.  Otherwise this is an outlier. But should this not be an outlier, then the prospect for a Trump victory is DOA.

INDIANA (11 electoral votes)

Trump underwater in Indiana:

Old National Bank/Ball State University 2017 Hoosier Survey (adults)

41% Approve
45% Disapprove

Source

Because of the high number of undecided, I am going to mute the color for approval and disapproval.

Republican nominees for President can usually win Indiana handily. But they do not win nationally unless they are winning the Hoosier state by double digits.

NEW JERSEY (14 electoral votes)

New Jersey likely voters disapprove 65 - 33 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 80 - 19 percent and white voters with no college degree are divided, as 47 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove. Every other party, gender, education and racial group disapproves by wide margins.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2494
 
This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[henster]

Looking at the crosstabs of the Morning Consult poll that had Trump at 42/53 and there are some weird results. His JA with 18-29 is 39/54 but 30-44 age group view him even worse at 37/57 and 55-64 is 39/56, 65+ 48/49, so millennialls are his 2nd most favorable age group? 21%(!) of people who identify as 'Liberal' approve of Trump compared to 76% who disapprove. Trump is at 19/73 with blacks and 32/62 with Hispanics far better than what I've seen in any polls. Even more odd results but you can look at it yourself. MC has consistently been one of Trump's best and static pollsters, his approval is always in the 42-43 range and disapproval 52-53.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-5068-d7a5-a5df-d16cf7580001

[Adam Griffin]

Given how the army is disproportionately white, male and non-educated this is pretty bad isn't it?

The total military force of the Armed Services (active duty & reserves; enlisted & officer) is 71% white including Hispanic/Latino servicemembers.

12% of the service is Hispanic/Latino; assuming 3 in 4 fall into the white category, around 62% of the Armed Services is White Non-Hispanic, which is almost identical to the national population as a whole.

However, the military is blacker than the nation as a whole (17%) and so this would explain at least in part why Trump's approval rating wouldn't be higher.

Compared to the 71% figure above, active duty enlisted members are 67% white. They don't collect information on "Hispanic/Latino" except in the situation of total military force, so we could only guess that among active duty enlisteds, White Non-Hispanics are probably in the high-50s.

[henster]

For Obama it was 36/52 at the end of his term, of course it is usually a conservative leaning group so not a surprise. Also speaks to Trump's weakness as well.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/01/08/the-obama-era-is-over-here-s-how-the-military-rates-his-legacy/

[pbrower2a]

Looking at the crosstabs of the Morning Consult poll that had Trump at 42/53 and there are some weird results. His JA with 18-29 is 39/54 but 30-44 age group view him even worse at 37/57 and 55-64 is 39/56, 65+ 48/49, so millennialls are his 2nd most favorable age group? 21%(!) of people who identify as 'Liberal' approve of Trump compared to 76% who disapprove. Trump is at 19/73 with blacks and 32/62 with Hispanics far better than what I've seen in any polls. Even more odd results but you can look at it yourself. MC has consistently been one of Trump's best and static pollsters, his approval is always in the 42-43 range and disapproval 52-53.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-5068-d7a5-a5df-d16cf7580001

,,,and this is what I had before the statewide data from Morning Consult.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher     45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44% 
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less
[/quote]

This is consistent with President Trump having an approval rating around 37%.

It is my practice at this stage to accept practically any poll that does not come from a combination of a suspect interest and a suspect pollster. I had some polls for an advocacy group for Obamacare, but those came through the well-respected Public Policy Polling. I might accept a poll from a chamber of commerce if it came through a respected pollster, but I have yet to see that unlikely conjunction.

Subsequent statewide polls from Florida, New Jersey, and Virginia are much less flattering for President Trump  than the data from Morning Consult which those polls supplant.   

[Gustaf]

Thanks for the army info everyone! I just went by the poll which was about 80% white and assumed it was roughly representative. So the point in regards to the poll should still stand, I think.

[Gass3268]

PPP-WI Trump Approval:

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

Source

[Doimper]

PPP-WI Trump Approval:

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

Source

Higher than I would've thought. Huh.

[windjammer]

PPP-WI Trump Approval:

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

Source

Higher than I would've thought. Huh.

PPP always gives better popularity ratings for politicians.

[pbrower2a]

WISCONSIN, 10 electoral votes

(I need do nothing with the type size  because the standard type here is 10 points)

PPP. Note that most of the focus is on state issues.

Approval: President Donald Trump 40-52
Governor Scott Walker 43-49
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) 35-51

2018 election for Governor: Walker 43, Democratic opponent 48

Lots of issues.


Have roads and highways gotten better or worse under Walker?

Better 20 Worse 38 Much the same 36

Schools

Better 17 Worse 48 Much the same 17

Incentives to Foxconn (big Walker effort)

Support 34 Oppose 41

Motivation of Foxconn deal

Good for Wisconsin 38  Political advantage 49

Will the Foxconn deal be good for Wisconsin -- do you have concerns that the concessions will hurt schools and the public universities, public health, and transportation?

Yes 55 No 24

Environmental concessions on behalf of Foxconn: Concerned or not

Yes 57 No 24

Pushes legal concerns for Foxconn concessions to the Wisconsin Supreme Court instead of to more local judges

Yes 54 No 26

Expansion of Medicaid (opposing Governor Walker)

Support 59 Oppose 21

Support or oppose a law allowing people with student loans to refinance their  loans?

Support 79  Oppose 9

Believe that Scott Walker is excessively supportive of President Trump?

Too supportive 44 Not enough 13 About Right 35

Should Congressional districts be determined by

Legislature and Governor 16

Independent non-partisan commission 63

My conclusion: Wisconsin voters are going to be tired of Governor Walker and his policies. Wisconsin is going to be one of the sharpest battlegrounds in 2018. Democrats will be wise to keep the focus on Governor Walker and his policies, and not on President Trump. Statewide issues, on which Governor Walker and Republican legislators will be vulnerable, will be far more important than national issues in Wisconsin.

Note also: it will be far easier for Wisconsin voters to vote against President Trump if Wisconsin has a Democratic governor who will not do dirty work for the President. Wisconsin will be a laboratory for undoing the damage that a governor similar to President Trump in ideology can do to a state ordinarily split nearly 50-50 in partisan identity.

Paul Ryan will probably be re-elected, assuming that his district is decidedly more R than the US or Wisconsin on the whole.  

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower