Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (October 12th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 54% (-3)

The media blaming a rape scandal on the Democrats?

It's more along the lines of don't read too much into daily movements.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gallup (October 12th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 54% (-3)

The media blaming a rape scandal on the Democrats?

The Harvey Weinstein scandal will not hurt the Democrats.

[American2020]

Trump Is Far Less Popular Than The Economy Suggests He Should Be



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-far-less-popular-than-the-economy-suggests-he-should-be/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 10/13

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Yesterday's bump was apparently noise.

[Yank2133]

Trump Is Far Less Popular Than The Economy Suggests He Should Be



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-far-less-popular-than-the-economy-suggests-he-should-be/

It is still remarkable how incompetent Trump truly is.

If he had any self discipline, his approval numbers would be 50+. This doesn't mean Trump is doing a good job, it just that he inherited a good situation from President Obama.

All he had to do was sign some popular EOs and shut up and most Americans would think he is doing just fine.

[Sorenroy]

Decided to try my hand at the Morning Consult poll. I have seen it said on the Atlas before that you can add seven or so percent to the approval numbers and get a good idea of how the election might look (in a two way race). For the national popular vote (no MoE given) this would show Trump tying a Democratic challenger 50% to 50%, which is already better than Trump did in 2016. If you apply this state by state, it looks like Trump is in a pretty good spot:

Donald Trump — 279
Dem. Challenger — 259

While the national poll does not have a MoE, the state by state numbers do. As such, if we look at the low end for Trump (approval-MoE+7%) we find this...

Dem. Challenger — 314
Donald Trump — 224

...and if we look at the high end for Trump (approval+MoE+7%) we find this:

Donald Trump — 333
Dem. Challenger — 205

On a side note, who in the world orders their states alphabetically by abbreviation? Apparently Morning Consult, that's who.

[Blackacre]

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late october 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

My most recent map of approval and disapproval. The most recent changers involve Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania.  

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

There's a real opportunity for McMullin to run again as an Indy in 2020 and win Utah, if Trump's approval there doesn't improve between now and then.

[Inmate Trump]

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late october 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

I agree that adding +7% is waaaay too generous, but I'm not so sure about going with face value on his approvals either.  I'd say it'd be fair (and cautious) to add 2-3%.

[pbrower2a]

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late October 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

The model is by Nate Silver, and it refers to approvals early in the year. Electoral results in November will usually be very close to approval ratings in October.

Average incumbent facing an average challenger. Silver's list of incumbent Governors and Senators included George Allen, Jr. (2006), who began with an approval rating of 51% in the spring but still lost. He hitched his star to Dubya in 2006, which would prove a mistake. He ran an execrable campaign, culminating in an ethnic slur and in an incident in which his staffers beat up a critic. He also faced a challenger of extreme effectiveness. The usual advantages of incumbency and being connected to an incumbent President who did not yet have execrable approval numbers vanished. The usual challenger to an incumbent Senator or Governor is usually a weaker candidate, the incumbent usually showing why he won the last time.   

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From October, 2-3% is the usual gain for an incumbent President from approval levels if a politician is still actively campaigning until Election Day. There was a difference between the campaigns of Dubya in 2004 and Obama in 2012: Obama practically shut down his campaigning because of Hurricane Sandy. He was going to win anyway. Dubya campaigned until the last hour because he had to, and there was nothing to stop him.

But we can't predict hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes,  or volcanic eruptions eight months earlier, can we?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 10/14

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

[Sorenroy]

It looks like you messed up the quote a little bit here. It should look like this:

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late October 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

The model is by Nate Silver, and it refers to approvals early in the year. Electoral results in November will usually be very close to approval ratings in October.

Average incumbent facing an average challenger. Silver's list of incumbent Governors and Senators included George Allen, Jr. (2006), who began with an approval rating of 51% in the spring but still lost. He hitched his star to Dubya in 2006, which would prove a mistake. He ran an execrable campaign, culminating in an ethnic slur and in an incident in which his staffers beat up a critic. He also faced a challenger of extreme effectiveness. The usual advantages of incumbency and being connected to an incumbent President who did not yet have execrable approval numbers vanished. The usual challenger to an incumbent Senator or Governor is usually a weaker candidate, the incumbent usually showing why he won the last time.   

I agree that adding +7% is waaaay too generous, but I'm not so sure about going with face value on his approvals either.  I'd say it'd be fair (and cautious) to add 2-3%.

From October, 2-3% is the usual gain for an incumbent President from approval levels if a politician is still actively campaigning until Election Day. There was a difference between the campaigns of Dubya in 2004 and Obama in 2012: Obama practically shut down his campaigning because of Hurricane Sandy. He was going to win anyway. Dubya campaigned until the last hour because he had to, and there was nothing to stop him.

But we can't predict hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes,  or volcanic eruptions eight months earlier, can we?

Also, yeah. I can't find the original 538 article, but that number (+6 or +7) has been thrown around enough that I figured I'd at least try and make a map out of it. Plus I find that sort of thing fun. Really, it's a win-win all around.

[pbrower2a]

At this stage  I am tempted to use 100-DIS as the ceiling for Trump support. Thus if Trump has a disapproval of 57% in Michigan, he cannot get more than 43% of the vote -- roughly -- in Michigan in a re-election bid.

One might be tempted to adjust that number upward to adjust for Trump supporters being more likely to go to the polls... but it is too early to do that. At this stage, disapproval is far more difficult  to dislodge than is approval.  I hear very few people defending him even in a rural area in which he won about  65-35. I noticed that at a harvest festival in town the Republicans had a booth -- and no Trump material. It was as if the Republicans had some question of who would be their standard-bearer.  Maybe they were afraid of people giving stiff-arm salutes or shouting "Heil Trump!" in mockery. I think they are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump was a mistake.   

[Daniel909012]

At this stage  I am tempted to use 100-DIS as the ceiling for Trump support. Thus if Trump has a disapproval of 57% in Michigan, he cannot get more than 43% of the vote -- roughly -- in Michigan in a re-election bid.

One might be tempted to adjust that number upward to adjust for Trump supporters being more likely to go to the polls... but it is too early to do that. At this stage, disapproval is far more difficult  to dislodge than is approval.  I hear very few people defending him even in a rural area in which he won about  65-35. I noticed that at a harvest festival in town the Republicans had a booth -- and no Trump material. It was as if the Republicans had some question of who would be their standard-bearer.  Maybe they were afraid of people giving stiff-arm salutes or shouting "Heil Trump!" in mockery. I think they are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump was a mistake.   

You always vomit hate, you and pittsburgh steel do not even see the reality

[Kamala]

At this stage  I am tempted to use 100-DIS as the ceiling for Trump support. Thus if Trump has a disapproval of 57% in Michigan, he cannot get more than 43% of the vote -- roughly -- in Michigan in a re-election bid.

One might be tempted to adjust that number upward to adjust for Trump supporters being more likely to go to the polls... but it is too early to do that. At this stage, disapproval is far more difficult  to dislodge than is approval.  I hear very few people defending him even in a rural area in which he won about  65-35. I noticed that at a harvest festival in town the Republicans had a booth -- and no Trump material. It was as if the Republicans had some question of who would be their standard-bearer.  Maybe they were afraid of people giving stiff-arm salutes or shouting "Heil Trump!" in mockery. I think they are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump was a mistake.   

You always vomit hate, you and pittsburgh steel do not even see the reality

NOT! AN! ARGUMENT!!1!1!!!

[pbrower2a]

At this stage  I am tempted to use 100-DIS as the ceiling for Trump support. Thus if Trump has a disapproval of 57% in Michigan, he cannot get more than 43% of the vote -- roughly -- in Michigan in a re-election bid.

One might be tempted to adjust that number upward to adjust for Trump supporters being more likely to go to the polls... but it is too early to do that. At this stage, disapproval is far more difficult  to dislodge than is approval.  I hear very few people defending him even in a rural area in which he won about  65-35. I noticed that at a harvest festival in town the Republicans had a booth -- and no Trump material. It was as if the Republicans had some question of who would be their standard-bearer.  Maybe they were afraid of people giving stiff-arm salutes or shouting "Heil Trump!" in mockery. I think they are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump was a mistake.   

You always vomit hate, you and pittsburgh steel do not even see the reality

Uh, where is the hate?

Sure, I have much contempt for the President... but that is not to say that he does not merit such contempt. Does grabbing women by the crotch sound like admirable behavior? Stiffing subcontractors? Effusive self-praise for a job not yet done? Baiting an mentally-unstable leader in possession of WMDs? Unilaterally renouncing agreements of the previous President?

This President is dangerous. Ideology has nothing to do with it.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gallup (10/15/2017)

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

[Yank2133]

Gallup (10/15/2017)

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Who knew screwing with people's healthcare wasn't popular...

[Gass3268]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (10/15/2017)

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Who knew screwing with people's healthcare wasn't popular...

Eh, don't read too much into daily tracker fluctuations.  If it stays down at that level for a few days, then you're probably right.

[IceSpear]

Gallup (10/15/2017)

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Who knew screwing with people's healthcare wasn't popular...

Eh, don't read too much into daily tracker fluctuations.  If it stays down at that level for a few days, then you're probably right.

Yeah, paying attention to daily or even weekly swings here is totally pointless. The big picture is that his approval/disapproval score is staying in a very narrow range, which isn't surprising due to how polarized the country is. I doubt he'd fall below 35% after eating babies on live TV, or rise above 50% after curing cancer. There's always the possibility of a black swan event though. God help us if Trump sees he's losing in the polls and nukes North Korea a few weeks before the 2020 election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump's approval ratings when it comes to disaster management plunged faster than a rock in a lake.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/355752-poll-trump-approval-on-hurricane-response-down-20-points-since

CNN Poll

Approve: 44% (-20)
Disapprove: 47% (+22)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN, Oct 12-15 (change from Sep 26-28)

Approve 37 (nc) Strongly 25
Disapprove 57 (+1) Strongly 47

Generic Congressional Ballot: 51D, 37R (among RV: 54D, 38R)

[pbrower2a]

CNN, Oct 12-15 (change from Sep 26-28)

Approve 37 (nc) Strongly 25
Disapprove 57 (+1) Strongly 47

Generic Congressional Ballot: 51D, 37R (among RV: 54D, 38R)

The "strongly disapprove" category is near a majority. This is higher than approval of any form -- by  a full ten percent. Statewide polls would be interesting. At this point, I figure that if the election were in November (obviously contrafactual), the President would lose in a landslide.

The Congressional ballot is not definitive, but the ballot is close to a loss of the House (if not the Senate) for the GOP. Gerrymandering as it is, Democrats need at least about a 54-46 split in the overall popular vote to break even in the House.

The Senate: Democrats in a normal election would have a potential loss of six seats this year if the President were at all successful in convincing people of the rectitude and desirability of his agenda. There are only two reasonable chances for Democratic gains in the Senate (Nevada, with a Republican in a Democratic state and Arizona, which seems to  be going Democratic due to demographic change). But with the retirement of Bob Corker (TN) and the likely demise of John McCain (AZ -- I saw him speak on TV, and he sounded like death warmed over... and I liked the content of his speech), there might be more Democratic chances. 

Rifts in the Republican party are severe. The President is inflicting pain without any coherent idea of how the harsh medicine can make things better for most people. He is riding a bull market not of his making that could implode any day. His diplomatic efforts are crass failures so far. His regional base is the areas of America least like his home of New York City.

   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 10/16

Approve 37 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-1)