Arizona will be dem in 2020- here is why

[Bidenworth2020]

Arizona will be dem in 2020. Before you chuckle, look at the facts

1-Maricopa County

I like to call Maricopa County, PVI county for how close it is to the PVI of Arizona. Clinton was a good fit here, and only lost it by 3 points.  Dems will most likely do better across the board, so I envision this as a 1-2 point dem win

2-Native Areas-

these are another section of Arizona political geography. Turnout will most likely be down a lot, so dems lose around 5,000 votes

Border Counties-

these include the counties along the border. Pinal is the big one of course, and turnout will probably be in the dems favor, with DACA and all that


OVERALL-

48-47 dem win!

discuss

[Pericles]

I agree-Arizona is trending D and it is foolish to think that because Trump won it by a few points he will do so again in 2020.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

At first I thought the reason Trump did so poorly (compared to the previous 3 GOP nominees) was because of the Latino vote.

Trump actually did a little better than Romney with the Latino vote - it was the white vote that hurt him.

If Arizona's voter demographics are 72%+ white (they were about 75% in 2016) and Trump is able to get at least 50% of the whites that left back, he wins easily.

My prediction: 52-46 (give or take 0.5 points). Called between 11:30PM and 12:30AM (around the time he is declared the overall winner).

[Dr. Arch]

I mean, for all intents and purposes, this is very possible. President Obama won Indiana by 1 in 2008 and then lost it by 9 in 2012. The potential for states like GA and AZ to flip is there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Arizona is ready to become a blue state.

[Kamala]

Really I think the turning point was Penzone defeating Arpaio - especially by such a large margin. Maricopa is getting ready to vote for a Democrat for President.

Of course, Democrats should focus on winning back MI, PA, WI, and IA first, but there's no reason why they shouldn't plant the seeds in Arizona they can sow fairly quickly.

[Pericles]

Exit polls are not reliable(and it's especially hypocritical for the people who attack more reliable normal polls to rely on exit polls). Hispanics probably went against Trump by more than in the exit polling.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Really I think the turning point was Penzone defeating Arpaio - especially by such a large margin. Maricopa is getting ready to vote for a Democrat for President.

Of course, Democrats should focus on winning back MI, PA, WI, and IA first, but there's no reason why they shouldn't plant the seeds in Arizona they can sow fairly quickly.

Arpaio was getting attacked and his name dragged through the mud. So it's not a surprise.

McCain won with 54% of the vote, just a little over Romney in 2012.

Arizona won't go blue til around 2028 or 2032.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Exit polls are not reliable(and it's especially hypocritical for the people who attack more reliable normal polls to rely on exit polls). Hispanics probably went against Trump by more than in the exit polling.

Well these weren't initial exit polls and I did the math and they were accurate.

Trump won whites 54% and non-whites with 32%. 54 x 75 + 32 x 75 = 48.5 and Trump won just a little over 48%.

So I predict in 2020 we get 60 x 72 + 33 x 28 = around 52ish. Thus, 52-46 give or take 0.5 points.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Also Trump performed weaker in Arizona because he lost a lot of votes due to third parties.

Clinton didn't do any better in term  of percentages than Obama did.

[dw93]

Arizona could flip in 2020, but it's far from a certainty.  I think Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and even North Carolina will flip before Arizona does though.

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah, there does seem to be a Virginiafication going on.

Hillary probably would've won if she had put her resources that were in NC over here instead, and even with the last minute run, it probably would've been closer than Wisconsin if not for Obamacare's hikes.

But yeah, if this state is locked down, only Florida will be needed to reach 270. Though I do think Wisconsin [via heightened Dane Co. and the Milwaukee burbs] would flip back first under that strategy.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Georgia is going to trend democrat faster than Arizona, especially if democrats go the progressive strategy.

Arizona has a high number of independents and Romney-Clinton voters. It was one of the only swing states to have negative approval rating for Obama (Obama had better approvals in even Georgia and Ohio than Arizona). Arizona actually had a high number of people who disapproved of Obama who voted for Hillary -- whereas states like Ohio had a high number of people who approved of Obama then voted Trump. This is an issue because Obama-Trump voters are far more likely to switch back to democrat than... people who have never voted democrat. Democrats have an inherent structural disadvantage here because there are less democrats than republicans in Arizona.

Democrats also have less to gain among the white voters here, because they already do fairly well. I don't think the youth are trending democrat much either.

Georgia is the fastest trending D swing state. I keep repeating this but there's a reason why -- the age gap is MASSIVE. Young voters over overwhelmingly voted Hillary. In addition, the rural areas are declining whereas the urban areas are growing in population. Looking at the youth vote is an excellent way of determining trends -- check at polls in West Virginia and Kentucky in 2000 for instance. Al Gore did fairly well among older West Virginians and people from Kentucky, but he got absolutely eviscerated by the youngins. Look at how those states ended up voting 10 years later (massive shifts towards the republicans).

AZ doesn't seem to be the greatest fit for a progressive strategy, but it's a good fit for the suburban strategy. I'd imagine democrats go the progressive strategy to try and win back WI/PA/MI.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Important to note: no Republican has won the presidency without AZ since it became a state. Now the past isn't always a good indicator of the future, but who knows? If Trump is losing AZ, I'd also think he'd be losing FL, since they have similar demographics and voting behaviors.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean, for all intents and purposes, this is very possible. President Obama won Indiana by 1 in 2008 and then lost it by 9 in 2012. The potential for states like GA and AZ to flip is there.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Important to note: no Republican has won the presidency without AZ since it became a state. Now the past isn't always a good indicator of the future, but who knows? If Trump is losing AZ, I'd also think he'd be losing FL, since they have similar demographics and voting behaviors.

If Trump loses Arizona he is done.

And even if he did win somehow, that would mean Texas is in play so the GOP candidate (and party probably) is done in 2024.

A Republican wouldn't win without Vermont until 2000, but Vermont is only 3 electoral votes and the demographics don't spell the end.

[Xing]

It could go Democratic in 2020, but I doubt it will be the tipping point state. Maricopa is the kind of place where I could see Trump improving on his 2016 numbers, at least relative to his national numbers. I still maintain that MI/PA/WI and probably FL will flip before AZ.

[AtorBoltox]

It could go Democratic in 2020, but I doubt it will be the tipping point state. Maricopa is the kind of place where I could see Trump improving on his 2016 numbers, at least relative to his national numbers. I still maintain that MI/PA/WI and probably FL will flip before AZ.

Well, obviously. Of course that states that were decided by one point are more likely to flip than the state Trump won by 3. Arizona is still extremely likely to go dem though

[libertpaulian]

I think Trump will manage to hold onto Arizona in 2020, but if 2024 is a blue typhoon like many predict, Arizona will be among the states that flip that year.

AZ 2020= NV/CO 2004.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I have a feeling that 2020 will be one last hurrah for the GOP in Arizona, kind of like New Mexico in 2004. Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

[PoliticalShelter]

Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

This sounds like a very 2013-esque comment to make about the GOP.

[super6646]

But the reason Trump did so poor in the state was because his white share of the vote declined. He did better with minorities, and if he can get a fraction of the white vote lost back, it'll be a 6-7 point victory.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I have a feeling that 2020 will be one last hurrah for the GOP in Arizona, kind of like New Mexico in 2004. Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

In Arizona 2012 AND 2016, 75% of voters were white. Also, Trump did better among Arizona latinos than in other states aside from Florida.

Arizona will likely have 65%+ voters be white til the 30s, so if Arizona flips it will due to young whites.

Everyone keeps bringing up Trump falling down in AZ, but Clinton didn't go up. She did as well as Obama did in 2008 and 2012. It's like saying Trump can win Oregon in 2020 because Clinton only got 50.1% there.

The GOP ceiling there is still 54%. He will be fine in 2020 and his GOP successor will be fine in 2024.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I have a feeling that 2020 will be one last hurrah for the GOP in Arizona, kind of like New Mexico in 2004. Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

In Arizona 2012 AND 2016, 75% of voters were white. Also, Trump did better among Arizona latinos than in other states aside from Florida.

Arizona will likely have 65%+ voters be white til the 30s, so if Arizona flips it will due to young whites.

Everyone keeps bringing up Trump falling down in AZ, but Clinton didn't go up. She did as well as Obama did in 2008 and 2012. It's like saying Trump can win Oregon in 2020 because Clinton only got 50.1% there.

The GOP ceiling there is still 54%. He will be fine in 2020 and his GOP successor will be fine in 2024.

It's impossible for Clinton to win Florida in 1996. He only got .5% more than Dukakis.
Pretending all third party voters will automatically return home is stupid.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I have a feeling that 2020 will be one last hurrah for the GOP in Arizona, kind of like New Mexico in 2004. Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

In Arizona 2012 AND 2016, 75% of voters were white. Also, Trump did better among Arizona latinos than in other states aside from Florida.

Arizona will likely have 65%+ voters be white til the 30s, so if Arizona flips it will due to young whites.

Everyone keeps bringing up Trump falling down in AZ, but Clinton didn't go up. She did as well as Obama did in 2008 and 2012. It's like saying Trump can win Oregon in 2020 because Clinton only got 50.1% there.

The GOP ceiling there is still 54%. He will be fine in 2020 and his GOP successor will be fine in 2024.

It's impossible for Clinton to win Florida in 1996. He only got .5% more than Dukakis.
Pretending all third party voters will automatically return home is stupid.

Trump will be fine.

Not all of them will come home, I know, which is why I say he will win Arizona with something like 52-46.