MD-Mason-Dixon: Hogan leads all opponents
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  MD-Mason-Dixon: Hogan leads all opponents
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Author Topic: MD-Mason-Dixon: Hogan leads all opponents  (Read 2106 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: October 04, 2017, 01:13:39 PM »

https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/c605399a-45e7-4419-a45b-796c7289ab0c/downloads/1brjlvpme_166802.pdf

Vs. Baker: 46 Hogan - 39 Baker
Vs. Kamenetz: 48 Hogan - 35 Kamenetz
Vs. Jealous: 49 Hogan - 33 Jealous
Vs. Madaleno: 49 Hogan - 30 Madaleno

All Democratic opponents don't have much name recognition yet, though Hogan has a 61-26 approval rating, so while these numbers are good for Hogan, they aren't stellar. A lot of voters who approve of Hogan appear to be supporting someone else.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2017, 01:38:44 PM »

If Hogan can't get 50% with 61% approvals that doesn't bode well. All the Dems have to do is connect him to Trump and it's over.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2017, 02:28:27 PM »

I really want to see Hogan lose big.

I wish he could lose by Obama 2012 margins (I would rather him slightly outperform Trump though).
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2017, 03:44:38 PM »

People are seriously overestimating how much Hogan can be tied to Trump, and also how effective that’ll actually be. He’s not a lightweight like other Republicans who’ve been washed away by Dem waves.

Also, Democratic primary numbers:

Baker 28%
Kamenetz 11%
Jealous 10%

Baker has the nomination in the bag.
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TheLeftwardTide
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2017, 07:08:36 PM »

Also, Democratic primary numbers:

Baker 28%
Kamenetz 11%
Jealous 10%

Baker has the nomination in the bag.

8 months before the primary? lol k

Great #centrist analysis
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2017, 08:02:52 PM »

lean d
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2017, 08:26:28 PM »

If Hogan can't get 50% with 61% approvals that doesn't bode well. All the Dems have to do is connect him to Trump and it's over.
Dems can try this all they want but it won't work. Voters are smart enough to know not all Republicans are = to Trump especially a #Nevertrump Governor.  

Edit: He can still loose but it won't be because of Trump.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2017, 08:45:40 PM »

If Hogan can't get 50% with 61% approvals that doesn't bode well. All the Dems have to do is connect him to Trump and it's over.
Dems can try this all they want but it won't work. Voters are smart enough to know not all Republicans are = to Trump especially a #Nevertrump Governor.  

Edit: He can still loose but it won't be because of Trump.

He can lose because of Trump but not necessarily because he was tied to Trump.
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Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2017, 08:52:34 PM »

If Hogan can't get 50% with 61% approvals that doesn't bode well. All the Dems have to do is connect him to Trump and it's over.
Dems can try this all they want but it won't work. Voters are smart enough to know not all Republicans are = to Trump especially a #Nevertrump Governor.  

Edit: He can still loose but it won't be because of Trump.
Exactly. Governor's races often have little to do with the Incumbent President, and a lot more to do with local factors. It's why Mike Beebe won every county in 2010 even as Blanche Lincoln lost in a landslide, and why the Democrats have a much better chance of winning the Kansas governorship next year then the Massachusetts governorship.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2017, 09:27:03 PM »

Democrats linking Trump to Hogan would push Hogan to disavow Trump and make Trump supporters angry, possibly enough to stay at home. That aside, anger at Trump is going to be taken out on lots of Republicans by voters. Ehrlich didn't have negative approval in 2006, yet he still lost because of the negative environment for Republican then.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2017, 09:29:35 PM »

It's starting.

Hogan's popularity was built largely because of his battle with cancer and not doing anything too crazy. All the Dems have to do is nationalize this race, though, and they should squeak it. If he's not polling at 50% against anyone at this point, he's in trouble.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2017, 05:04:51 PM »

People are seriously overestimating how much Hogan can be tied to Trump, and also how effective that’ll actually be. He’s not a lightweight like other Republicans who’ve been washed away by Dem waves.

Also, Democratic primary numbers:

Baker 28%
Kamenetz 11%
Jealous 10%

Baker has the nomination in the bag.

I mean, I don't doubt that Baker has the most name recognition, but as someone else said, many months out and 28% in first place is not that impressive.

And I mean I wouldn't consider Ehrlich to be a lightweight, all things said.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2017, 10:09:18 PM »

Hogan distanced himself from Trump in the 2016 election, but he has basically tied himself to all his policies throughout his presidency.  Clinton won Maryland with more than 60% of the vote, so Hogan needs a lot of Clinton voters to vote for him if he is to win.  He has clearly failed to distance himself from Trump in a substantial enough way to actually accomplish this task.

Likely D
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