"Pro-life" Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA-18) urged mistress to get an abortion

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BREAKING: He's resigning on October 21.

That's my birthday

[BuckeyeNut]

The state house guy, Neuman should definitely run, then. Nothing to lose running in a special. I like Fetterman a lot, but he can't afford another loss on his record.

[Heisenberg]

The state house guy, Neuman should definitely run, then. Nothing to lose running in a special. I like Fetterman a lot, but he can't afford another loss on his record.

He lives in PA-14 (I know you only have to live in the state, not necessarily the district to run, but living outside the district can be a major liability).
https://ziplook.house.gov/htbin/findrep?ZIP=15104&Submit=FIND+YOUR+REP+BY+ZIP

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The state house guy, Neuman should definitely run, then. Nothing to lose running in a special. I like Fetterman a lot, but he can't afford another loss on his record.

He lives in PA-14 (I know you only have to live in the state, not necessarily the district to run, but living outside the district can be a major liability).
https://ziplook.house.gov/htbin/findrep?ZIP=15104&Submit=FIND+YOUR+REP+BY+ZIP

Even so, I think he could win.  Matt Smith might also be good.

[Cactus Jack]

As much as I'd far prefer Fetterman from a purely political standpoint, I'll absolutely endorse Neuman on the grounds of pragmatism. Progressives need to save Fetterman for a bigger office.

[Kingpoleon]

John Fetterman is looking into running for this seat. https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/915944625759768577

Fetterman is my man but Braddock is in the 14th and he generally seems more interested in another Senate run in 2022.

One does not preclude the other. Fetterman would be a massive recruiting coup, and I suspect one of the few Dems who could win this seat

I think it's more likely for Fetterman to primary Wolf or Casey.

[Cactus Jack]

John Fetterman is looking into running for this seat. https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/915944625759768577

Fetterman is my man but Braddock is in the 14th and he generally seems more interested in another Senate run in 2022.

One does not preclude the other. Fetterman would be a massive recruiting coup, and I suspect one of the few Dems who could win this seat

I think it's more likely for Fetterman to primary Wolf or Casey.

I highly doubt he would do either of those things, not least because he would flat-out lose against either of them. He needs a seat to open up.

[kyc0705]

BREAKING: He's resigning on October 21.



https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/916031197167312896

At the risk of repeating myself:

[The Other Castro]

According to PA law, Gov. Wolf has 10 days from Murphy's exit to schedule a special election after at least 60 days. Also, the candidates for both parties will be selected by local party delegates instead of primaries. The special election could be as early as late December.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/5/1704470/-Anti-abortion-Rep-Tim-Murphy-resigning-from-Congress-after-urging-mistress-to-have-an-abortion

[KingSweden]

I guess he aborted his career by not carrying his term to term

(I'll see myself out)

[Illiniwek]

I am very glad the filthy hypocrite is retiring. This usually doesn't happen when "family values" people get caught these days.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am happy he is resigning, but I wonder why the leadership didn't handle DesJarlais the same way.  Maybe it is a Boehner/Ryan thing and would seem to bizarre to retroactively punish him now.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The sad part of this is that Murphy was one of the less bad House Republicans. Somewhat moderate on labor issues, very much leading on issues of mental health.

And the likelihood is that if a Republican wins the special, they will face a Bannonite primary challenger. The former could very well be far more pro-chamber of commerce.

[Doimper]

The sad part of this is that Murphy was one of the less bad House Republicans.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4065727-CoS-Email.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess he aborted his career by not carrying his term to term

(I'll see myself out)

He failed to deliver.

(Hold the door for me)

[publicunofficial]

John Fetterman is looking into running for this seat. https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/915944625759768577

Fetterman is my man but Braddock is in the 14th and he generally seems more interested in another Senate run in 2022.

One does not preclude the other. Fetterman would be a massive recruiting coup, and I suspect one of the few Dems who could win this seat

I think it's more likely for Fetterman to primary Wolf or Casey.

You think wrong, as you often do.

[Holmes]

I think the special might be interesting if Democrats run a strong candidate.

[Brittain33]

What's Mike Pence's opinion of this? LOL

Blah blah, look I'm not going to speculate about blah blah the kind of broad-shouldered leadership America needs blah blah

[McGovernForPrez]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

Don't count on it.  Trump's job approval is up to 10 points higher with likely voters than the public as a whole, and Congressional Democrats are even more unpopular in the same polls.  Not to mention that they couldn't win the Georgia seat.

[McGovernForPrez]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

Don't count on it.  Trump's job approval is up to 10 points higher with likely voters than the public as a whole, and Congressional Democrats are even more unpopular in the same polls.  Not to mention that they couldn't win the Georgia seat.

I mean election fundamentals generally claim that the party in control of the white house typically does worse during special elections and midterms. Nothing about the 2017 midterms has contradicted this reality. Democrats lost the Georgia seat but they massively overperformed in almost every other race. This is because the party outside the white house typically has a more energized voting base. The congressional generic ballot currently gives the Democrats an 8 point edge, which seems somewhat consistent with previous special election results. Democrats lost the Georgia seat because the seat had massive turnout as a result of media saturation about the race. The Georgia seat had the highest turnout of any special election ever, and also saw the most money spent on a congressional race ever.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: PA-18 goes from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The sad part of this is that Murphy was one of the less bad House Republicans.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4065727-CoS-Email.html

If you had not sliced and diced my post, it was obvious I was talking in terms of policy positions and engagement on critical issues from a basis of needing to address problems when then sticking their head in the sand, pretending it is 1985 and pontificating about taking two tax cuts and call me in the morning.

Yes he is a horrible person and a hypocrit in terms of how he deals with people, but in terms of policy I said he was "less bad". Which implies he was still bad I would note.

[Blackacre]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

Don't count on it.  Trump's job approval is up to 10 points higher with likely voters than the public as a whole, and Congressional Democrats are even more unpopular in the same polls.  Not to mention that they couldn't win the Georgia seat.

I'm sorry, what?

Using the most generous estimates (likely voters vs all adults) 538's approval ratings average has his approvals around 3 points higher among likely voters than among all adults.

In addition, The popularity of the out of power party literally does not matter in midterms and specials.  Obama and the Dems were more popular in 2010 than the GOP, and the GOP still got a massive wave that year.

[UncleSam]

Damn lol Murphy sounds like Kevin Spacey in Horrible Bosses in that memo