Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[JG]

NPDQ: 68%
PLQ: 67%
PVQ: 65%
QS: 61%
PQ: 57%
CAQ: 48%
PCQ: 35%

Unfortunately, there might not be a candidate running in my riding for the NPDQ. I did give my signature for her to make it on the ballot, but I haven't heard anything about her since, so I'll probably end up voting for the PLQ. Anyway, it's not like it will matter much since my riding is safe CAQ.

[mileslunn]

PCQ 61%
PLQ 60%
CAQ 52%
PVQ 46%
NPD 42%
PQ 34%
QS 32%

Surprised I was PCQ first, but of the main parties that are competitive, I am closest to the PLQ and that is whom I would likely vote for if I lived in Quebec.  I feel Philippe Couillard has done a good job in turning Quebec around and deserves another term.

[MAINEiac4434]

PVQ: 78%
QS: 75%
NPDQ: 74%
PLQ: 62%
PQ: 56%
CAQ: 46%
PCQ: 28%

[Velasco]

My vote compass:

NPD 79%
PVQ 76%
QS 74%
PQ 63%
PLQ 62%
CAQ 48%
PCQ 27%

Where is Québec 51?

[DC Al Fine]

My vote compass:

NPD 79%
PVQ 76%
QS 74%
PQ 63%
PLQ 62%
CAQ 48%
PCQ 27%

Where is Québec 51?

They're the fringe of the fringe and most people cant even vote for them.

[VPH]

Went to the Westmount St-Louis debate last night. It was predictably a hot mess, because this is a 70%+ PLQ seat so the candidates from other parties are eccentric.
-The Green candidate is an anarchist and military veteran and said that the PLQ would win, leading everybody else to freak out. He also voted Parti Nul last election.

-The CAQ candidate got asked a question by a student journalist about whether she would support separating families, and she kept flubbing it and the student kept pushing. Afterwards, the candidate's mom, who was in the audience, went after the reporter asking why there was an external media person (despite the fact that he is a McGill student). Not a good debate for her. Not a great candidate.

-The PCQ candidate was funny and kept drawing his tax plans on the chalkboard despite the moderators continuously telling him "no props". Other candidates were laughing and rolling their eyes, and the CAQ candidate suggested he be kicked out.

-PLQ candidate was the only serious one.

[JG]

New Crop-Cogeco Poll

PLQ - 37%
CAQ - 30%
PQ  - 16%
QS - 14%

The guy from Qc125, however, brings up that Crop has a strong house effect for PLQ and a mild one in favor of the CAQ. If adjusted for last year's house effect, the numbers look like:

PLQ - 33%
CAQ - 28%
PQ  - 19,5%
QS - 15%

[Hatman 🍁]

Would be lovely if the QS passed the PQ. #Massémentum!

[Jeppe]

What seats would the QS pick up if they shot ahead of the PQ and ended up with say, 20% of the vote?

[lilTommy]

What seats would the QS pick up if they shot ahead of the PQ and ended up with say, 20% of the vote?

Let's try! - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/simulateur-pour-le-quebec.html

not perfect, but... use the polling about PLQ 33, CAQ 28 QS 20 PQ 15

Bourget, Maurice-Richard, Rosemont, Taschereau; outside of the 6 or so they are expected to win. Grain-of-salt though.

[JG]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

What did he do?

[JG]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

What did he do?

At last night's debate, while he was having a face off with Massé about healthcare, he went on a bizarre rant about how Massé wasn't the real leader of QS (and that neither was Nadeau-Dubois) and implied she shouldn't be there because it's a leaders' debate. He also seemed to imply that QS was led by a shadowy figure (Of course, his fans ate it up by ranting on facebook about the politburo's true leader). He ignored repeatedly the moderator asking him to stay on topic while pushing that point again and again in a really weirdly agressive and slightly unhinged way. And times and times again during the debate, he had to be called back to order. He was very agressive and he went off topic once again in a face off with Legault and would just not let it go. Now, reading the covering, it seems news are more focusing on the Couillard-Legault face off since they're the front runnings, so my political suicide comment was a bit an over statement, but it was still an awful debate performance, especially compared to the ones he had on monday and last thursday. Social medias were buzzing about how he looked like someone who wanted to lose his election and how he killed any momentum and goodwill he could have been gaining in the past few days.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

What did he do?

At last night's debate, while he was having a face off with Massé about healthcare, he went on a bizarre rant about how Massé wasn't the real leader of QS (and that neither was Nadeau-Dubois) and implied she shouldn't be there because it's a leaders' debate. He also seemed to imply that QS was led by a shadowy figure (Of course, his fans ate it up by ranting on facebook about the politburo's true leader). He ignored repeatedly the moderator asking him to stay on topic while pushing that point again and again in a really weirdly agressive and slightly unhinged way. And times and times again during the debate, he had to be called back to order. He was very agressive and he went off topic once again in a face off with Legault and would just not let it go. Now, reading the covering, it seems news are more focusing on the Couillard-Legault face off since they're the front runnings, so my political suicide comment was a bit an over statement, but it was still an awful debate performance, especially compared to the ones he had on monday and last thursday. Social medias were buzzing about how he looked like someone who wanted to lose his election and how he killed any momentum and goodwill he could have been gaining in the past few days.

Yeah that was weird. I have no idea why he and/or his handlers thought that was a good idea.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does he feel he might lose his own seat to QS?

[DC Al Fine]

Does he feel he might lose his own seat to QS?

He probably does. Most models seem to have Rosemont "on the bubble".

[politicallefty]

I did the Vote Compass:

PLQ: 64%
NPD: 64%
PVQ: 61%
QS: 56%
CAQ: 50%
PQ: 50%
PCQ: 33%

If the NPDQ were strongly competitive, I'd consider voting for them if I were in Quebec. Of the major parties, I'd probably go QS. Quebec sovereignty appears dead for the time being, so I would consider them if I were a Quebec voter (despite being a left-wing federalist).

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1043526541764890625

[Poirot]

Things were going relatively well for Lisée, maybe he didn't receive the most media coverage but analysts were saying he ran a good campaign, his voting intentions were trending up and over 20%, 10% points behind CAQ in francophone vote so can be competitive and save seats, Forum had his favorability up (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2870/quebec-wave-2-2018 , Léger had him catch up Legault and Couillard has best Premier so it could be a minority government. That is not a bad result considering the situation a few weeks ago. Maybe it wasn't enough and winning the most votes was the only goal so decided to try something that would get attention. Why gamble weks of work with the stargey of being off topic and agressive. It's hard to look good doing that. Instead of being the guy who save the party you are the giuy who killed the party with one week to go before the election.

[DC Al Fine]

Paging Earl

[adma]

Lisee's "I know that math is difficult" moment?  (cf Jim Prentice)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1043652260444741633

[RogueBeaver]

Evergreen. https://twitter.com/kick1972/status/1043667255530278914

[RogueBeaver]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

[JG]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.