AL-Opinion Savvy/DDHQ: Moore +5

[Jeppe]

Yeah, Thad Cochran is praised for receiving incredibly high black support and even he only musters like 15% at most.

[Maxwell]

lel cross-tabs.

[Anna Komnene]

I'd be interested to know what Moore's favorables among Strange voters is with all the negative advertising... but it's hard to take these cross-tabs seriously either way.

[Xing]

If Jones can get 45%, that means he's having an incredible night.

[Adam Griffin]

If Jones got 36% of the white vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 53% of the vote.

If Moore got 25% of the black vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 65% of the vote.

That's a huge difference and shows why the crosstabs - and potentially this poll as a whole - are garbage.

What's more inelastic in Alabama, the white vote or the black vote?

In any non-Moore race, I'd say whites are less elastic. Here, I honestly don't know (but whites are going to be more elastic than usual) - probably not a huge difference.

No. I believe blacks are always more inelastic. They always vote 90%+ Democrat

We don't necessarily have the data for many recent top-ticket AL races, but using Governor, Senator & President exit polling for the past five cycles in GA:

Republicans have received anywhere from 2-18% of the black vote.

Democrats have received anywhere from 20-26% of the white vote.

[Pericles]

Reverse Scott Brown-fingers crossed!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Moore does have more African America support than the average republican, but definitely not 25%. Probably around 10-15.

I'm pretty sure that's not true and if anything, Moore's likely to do especially badly with African-Americans (even for an Alabama Republican) given his long history of doing things like opposing a constitutional amendment to remove the poll tax from AL's state constitution, promoting pro-Confederate revisionist civil war history, supporting the birther conspiracy theories, etc. 

[Gustaf]

If Jones got 36% of the white vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 53% of the vote.

If Moore got 25% of the black vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 65% of the vote.

That's a huge difference and shows why the crosstabs - and potentially this poll as a whole - are garbage.

What's more inelastic in Alabama, the white vote or the black vote?

In any non-Moore race, I'd say whites are less elastic. Here, I honestly don't know (but whites are going to be more elastic than usual) - probably not a huge difference.

Split the difference and Moore is up by 12?