AL-Opinion Savvy/DDHQ: Moore +5

[Ebsy]

Moore: 50
Jones: 45

https://s3.amazonaws.com/ddhqpolls/DDHQ_AL_Senate_Poll_9.29.17.pdf

[Ebsy]

Crosstabs suggest we might have a race.

[The Other Castro]

36.1% of whites? Color me skeptical.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Crosstabs suggest we might have a race.

Ordinarily, a Dem who can get 36% of the white vote in Alabama would win. If this is really close to accurate (I doubt it but hey) Jones has a shot. I seriously doubt Roy Moore is actually getting 24% of the Black vote.

[Jeppe]

36.1% of whites? Color me skeptical.

25% of African-American is even more doubtful. Should be more like 5%.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

36.1% of whites? Color me skeptical.

Also Moore winning 24.8% of African American voters. Definitely unrealistic cross tabs.

[KingSweden]

These cross tabs are absurd. Junk, junk, junk.

[windjammer]

These cross tabs are absurd. Junk, junk, junk.

^^^^^^

Moore should win this by 10 in the end.

[Gass3268]

Get hype

[Hydera]

Remember, Moore only won the Chief justice race by 4% in a Presidential election year because non-evangelical republicans were sick of him.

[Adam Griffin]

I know it's not viable campaign strategy, but in situations like this (especially in the Deep South), I wish there was some effective way to basically campaign/message (in part) on a message of:

"Hey, I know you might not be a Democrat, but this is a special election and there'll be another election for this seat soon - if you put Moore in there solely out of party loyalty, you're going to be stuck with him for as long as he wants it; if you put the Democrat in there, you'll have another chance real soon for vote for a Republican you actually like - and win all the same".

[Tender Branson]

The R winning margin won't be as high as they usually are for Alabama, but Moore should still win the GE by between 10-15 points ...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can bet my life that Moore will not even come close to 25% of the black vote, bs poll.

[Holmes]

What's more inelastic in Alabama, the white vote or the black vote?

[Alabama_Indy10]

36.1% of whites? Color me skeptical.

25% of African-American is even more doubtful. Should be more like 5%.

Moore has a decent amount of African American support. Probably not 25% but probably more than 5%.

[Skill and Chance]

Folks, this is going to be a single digit race.  While I would only give Jones about a 20% chance of winning, this is not going to follow normal partisan patterns in Alabama.

[bilaps]

For once I agree with Dems that this will be closer than a blowout election. However, I still think 5pts is not realistic. More likely to be 10. But would not be surprised with let's say 8pt win for Moore.

[mvd10]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/doug_jones_alabama_democratic.html

nope

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

36.1% of whites? Color me skeptical.

25% of African-American is even more doubtful. Should be more like 5%.

Moore has a decent amount of African American support. Probably not 25% but probably more than 5%.

ABSOLUTE maximum is 13%, most probably is around 7-8%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah... this poll seems like total junk to me. No way a state with 53% republicans is this close, and the AA support for Moore / White support for Jones seems way off.

Moore may be a nut, but he seems like Alabama's nut. Jones is making some weird campaign choices that would fit better in a state less super red. While Moore has had some really close races in the past, I feel as if they were just an anomaly.

I'm still going with my prediction of Moore +12. Considering changing it to +14 because I think Jones campaign is making poor choices ill-suited for Alabama, but I'll reconsider if there are a bunch of other polls showing Jones doing well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It baffles me that people actually believe this nut job is deserving of a senate seat...

[Adam Griffin]

If Jones got 36% of the white vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 53% of the vote.

If Moore got 25% of the black vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 65% of the vote.

That's a huge difference and shows why the crosstabs - and potentially this poll as a whole - are garbage.

What's more inelastic in Alabama, the white vote or the black vote?

In any non-Moore race, I'd say whites are less elastic. Here, I honestly don't know (but whites are going to be more elastic than usual) - probably not a huge difference.

[Alabama_Indy10]

If Jones got 36% of the white vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 53% of the vote.

If Moore got 25% of the black vote but everything else mirrored recent voting trends, he'd get 65% of the vote.

That's a huge difference and shows why the crosstabs - and potentially this poll as a whole - are garbage.

What's more inelastic in Alabama, the white vote or the black vote?

In any non-Moore race, I'd say whites are less elastic. Here, I honestly don't know (but whites are going to be more elastic than usual) - probably not a huge difference.

No. I believe blacks are always more inelastic. They always vote 90%+ Democrat

[Young Conservative]

Moore does have more African America support than the average republican, but definitely not 25%. Probably around 10-15.

[AtorBoltox]

Moore does have more African America support than the average republican, but definitely not 25%. Probably around 10-15.

Why is this?