Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,892
Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91
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« on: September 26, 2017, 12:22:40 PM » |
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I'm not sure what polls from 2013 had for AAs (it could be the same I guess), but it seems like these are anticipating a return to pre/early Obama African American turnout, which was around 16% in 2009. That would make sense given last year, except in Virginia '16 exit polls showed blacks turning out at almost the same numbers as 2012, maybe even a little more. There is no appreciable off-year drop in black turnout as well, if you go by 2013, which had 20% turnout.
Also seems to be a bit light on 18-29 year olds.
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