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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-Monmouth: Northam +5
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5  (Read 1261 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 26, 2017, 12:08:56 pm »
« edited: September 26, 2017, 12:17:15 pm by Gass3268 »

Northam 49 (+5)
Gillespie 44 (-/+)

Source

NoVA: 56-39 Northam
East: 49-40 Northam
Central: 49-48 Northam
West: 50-43 Gillespie

The 4% that are undecided only have a 30% approval rating of Trump.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2017, 12:22:40 pm »

I'm not sure what polls from 2013 had for AAs (it could be the same I guess), but it seems like these are anticipating a return to pre/early Obama African American turnout, which was around 16% in 2009. That would make sense given last year, except in Virginia '16 exit polls showed blacks turning out at almost the same numbers as 2012, maybe even a little more. There is no appreciable off-year drop in black turnout as well, if you go by 2013, which had 20% turnout.

Also seems to be a bit light on 18-29 year olds.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2017, 01:43:24 pm »

Bummed they didn't ask about the state house races.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2017, 03:26:51 pm »

I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2017, 11:58:24 pm »

I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia.

I hope they didn't blow their collective loads and not have enough money to poll the race in the last two weeks. This is pretty much what happened in 2016, which was part of the reason certain states were neglected by certain campaigns.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2017, 11:51:25 am »

I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia.

I hope they didn't blow their collective loads and not have enough money to poll the race in the last two weeks. This is pretty much what happened in 2016, which was part of the reason certain states were neglected by certain campaigns.

My guess is there will be one more round of polls right before the election at the end of October or early November.
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Smilin Jim
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2017, 07:07:29 pm »

One would think that liberals would learn from last year and stop trusting their fake polls, but apparently that's not the case.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2017, 06:15:06 pm »

Gillespie should direct his money to the east and west heavily. Reduce Northam West margins or win it and increase his margin in the west. That is the only way he wins. NOVA is lost.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2017, 07:02:01 pm »

One would think that liberals would learn from last year and stop trusting their fake polls, but apparently that's not the case.

I don't follow. Polls in Virginia in 2016 were remarkably accurate.
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2017, 07:37:13 pm »
« Edited: October 08, 2017, 07:38:50 pm by Frodo »

Gillespie should direct his money to the east and west heavily.

By 'east', I'm assuming you mean Tidewater and the Eastern Shore?

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Huh

In English, please?
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