AL-Emerson: Moore +10 in primary, Jones trails by 22/13 against Moore/Strange

[The Other Castro]

Moore - 50%
Strange - 40%

Moore - 52%
Jones - 30%

Strange - 49%
Jones - 36%

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/ECPS_AL%209.25%20Press%20Release.pdf

[Matty]

This is a safe R election.

[Fudotei]

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

[Ebsy]

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

Emerson is a notably terrible pollster.

[kyc0705]

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

Emerson is a notably terrible pollster.

Atlas is a notably terrible forum.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

Emerson is a notably terrible pollster.

Moore is much more popular than Strange in Alabama.

[krazen1211]

Dominating!

[Young Conservative]

It has been funny to watch NY/DC Ivy League commentators and "analysts" predict Jones would upset Moore. He would win more easily than Strange. These people are so out of touch...

[Vosem]

Emerson's previous poll, interestingly enough, had Moore+4/Strange+3; I'd be interested to know what caused the swing. Unless we can all agree that Emerson is just a bad poster and the best way to figure out where this race is is to look at other Southern special elections and extrapolate from differences in demographics and Trump's approval rate. I would think this comes out to a high-single-digit win for Republicans; 5-7 points stronger than SC-5 based on Alabama being whiter and Trump being at around the same point, but I freely admit this is an eyeballing estimate.

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

Emerson is a notably terrible pollster.

Moore is much more popular than Strange in Alabama.

This would reflect very poorly on Strange, since Moore only won his last statewide race 52/48 and that was in a rather better environment for the GOP than the current one. Still, I'd imagine a state Supreme Court race would have much less partisan voting than a U.S. Senate race would.

[Maxwell]

Moore does better against Jones than Strange does.

This is obvious; Moore has better approval ratings than Strange does.

Atlas is a joke.

Indeed.

[heatcharger]

Lmfao Wulfric speaks for most/all of Atlas in IndyRep's mind. Explains a lot.

[krazen1211]

Great poll!

[Holmes]

Did kraken short circuit momentarily there? Returning 6 hours later to comment on the poll again.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Congratulations to Emerson College on being tied with Optimus for the most accurate runoff poll! Let's hope that their general numbers are terrible though, Jones has to win this.

[Mr. Smith]

Why do I have a feeling these numbers are gonna be generous to Jones?

[Xing]

#NewGoldStandard

[Pollster]

Looks like the sample for general election voters here included all registered voters including respondents who ID'd as unlikely to vote. That probably shifts the results a few points, though it's tough to surmise in which direction. Emerson has surprisingly started publishing their raw data with their results so I may run my own analysis of it at some point.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

They gave all sorts of weird questions about the Republican primary runoff(regardless of partisan affiliation) done before the "who would you vote for in the general election"(which is literally the last question on the poll). This is not a good poll.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

They gave all sorts of weird questions about the Republican primary runoff(regardless of partisan affiliation) done before the "who would you vote for in the general election"(which is literally the last question on the poll). This is not a good poll.

Also, how do we know there wasn't herding? I saw like five AL primary polls at exactly 10 or 11. Thats not enough noise.

[GlobeSoc]

Tinfoil hat time, what if the russians are coordinating with emerson. I dont seriously think this is true but its something to think about.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Atlas is a notably terrible forum.

if that is what you think, then you should leave.
there is no point in staying active on a forum you dislike.

[JA]

As should be expected, Moore is set for an easy victory over Jones in Alabama.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Atlas is a notably terrible forum.

if that is what you think, then you should leave.
there is no point in staying active on a forum you dislike.

Just as people should leave this country if they dislike it.

[Blackacre]

Atlas is a notably terrible forum.

if that is what you think, then you should leave.
there is no point in staying active on a forum you dislike.

Just as people should leave this country if they dislike it.

Leaving the forum isnt prohibitively expensive tho

[Alabama_Indy10]

Atlas is a notably terrible forum.

if that is what you think, then you should leave.
there is no point in staying active on a forum you dislike.

Just as people should leave this country if they dislike it.

Leaving the forum isnt prohibitively expensive tho

It's the principle that I'm talking about.