2018 New Brunswick election

[Tintrlvr]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

[mileslunn]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

Will Ekos publicly post anything for New Brunswick and will like federally and Ontario, we get a seat projection?

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

Will Ekos publicly post anything for New Brunswick and will like federally and Ontario, we get a seat projection?

All depends on the client (probably not), but I can do a projection for everyone here on election day, though. I won't put anything on the EKOS website because it would be weird if we did New Brunswick and not Quebec (we're not doing any polling in Quebec this time).

[Hatman 🍁]

There's a political compass for New Brunswick too:

I got:
Liberal 68%
Green 67%
NDP 61%
PANB 59%
PC 59%

And they put me as centre-right socially? lol These quizzes are dumb.

[ON Progressive]

On the political compass I got:

NDP 84%
Green 79%
Liberal 62%
PA 51%
PC 50%

I don't know how I'm over 50 for the People's Alliance, or at 50 for the PCs.

[MAINEiac4434]

Link?

[mileslunn]

Mine are:


PC 75%
PA 62%
LIB 55%
GRN 40%
NDP 35%


Not a real surprise, I was a member of the Progressive Conservatives prior to the merger so in Atlantic Canada they are still kind of like the PCs pre-merger so makes sense I would align with them.  In Alberta pre-merger I was also closest to the PCs as opposed to Wildrose.  I would probably vote PC if I lived in New Brunswick as Blaine Higgs seems to be trying something different and Gallant's policies are similar to Wynne and Trudeau which is a just bigger government which I don't believe is the solution.  Also Higgs is not an ideologue like Ford or Kenney, but moderately centre-right.

[Hatman 🍁]

Link?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/vote-compass-used-in-nb-1.4789522

[JoeyOCanada]

PC - 64%
PA - 60%
Liberal - 56%
Green - 48%
NDP - 43%

Actually surprised that the People's Alliance is that high for me lol

[Njall]

PC 72%
LIB 67%
PANB 52%
GRN 49%
NDP 38%

[MAINEiac4434]

NDP 87
GRN 82
LIB 62
PA 61(!)
PC 52

[the506]

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, the final installment of the riding profiles.

Northern New Brunswick

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
In the US, this riding could be considered a gerrymander. The very anglo, very rural Southwest Miramichi valley, including villages like Boiestown, Doaktown and Blackville; is lumped in with the very Acadian area around Bay du Vin and Baie-Sainte-Anne on the eastern coast. Southwest Miramichi was a COR seat back in the day, and the current PC MLA Jake Stewart is very much in that mold.

Stewart is running for his 3rd term in the legislature. The Liberal candidate is former CUPE local president Andy Hardy, who’s had his fair share of conflicts with the Gallant government over the past 4 years. This was also one of the People’s Alliance’s best seats in both 2010 and 2014, and they’re running Doaktown councllor Art O’Donnell. Given the demographics of this riding, he may have a chance.
Likely PC

Miramichi
This riding includes the bulk of the City of Miramichi, one of those amalgamated supercities that were all the rage in Canada in the 90s. The two main population centres inside city limits, Newcastle and Chatham, are about 10 km apart on opposite sides of the Miramichi River. It wasn’t until 2014 that they were joined in the same riding. Chatham (“Canada’s Irish Capital”) is historically Catholic and Liberal, and was Frank McKenna’s seat back in the day. Newcastle was historically more Conservative and Protestant, but more recently elected a string of Liberal MLAs in the 1990s and 2000s.

The current MLA is transportation minister Bill Fraser, who defeated Alward cabinet minister Robert Trevors in a Newcastle vs Chatham battle 4 years ago. Fraser has ties to the now-defunct Liberal-friendly construction firm Atcon, who received millions of dollars in government subsidies in the Graham years before quickly folding. As transportation minister, he’s still given contracts to ex-Atcon employees’ new firms, which has dogged him during the campaign.

The PC candidate is former city councillor Peggy McLean. The People’s Alliance is running Michelle Conroy, a hospital administrative assistant.

Fraser’s scandals could sink him, but the PA looks surprisingly strong and may split the vote. My guess is whoever wins the province will win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Another essentially bilingual (if not trilingual) riding, Miramichi Bay-Neguac includes the pre-amalgamation village of Douglastown, the other anglo rural areas to the north and west of Miramichi; as well as the Neguac area which is culturally part of the Acadian peninsula but still in Miramichi’s Northumberland County. It also includes three large Mi’kmaq nations at Red Bank, Eel Ground and Burnt Church.

Liberal MLA Lisa Harris is seeking her 2nd term, having won her first by knocking off incumbent Tory Serge Robichaud by 11 points. She’s now the minister responsible for seniors’ issues, in an area with a lot of retirees, and one of her big promises is renos to local seniors’ homes. The PC candidate time is Debi Tozer, an executive of a construction firm. I’d give the People’s Alliance candidate Terry Collette a slight chance - if he didn’t have a degree on “holistic nutrition” and post 9/11 conspiracy theories on Facebook.

It should be a closer race than last time, but my guess is the Acadian and First Nations vote will keep Harris in the legislature.
Leaning Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila
This riding is at the southern end of the Acadian Peninsula and is based around, of course, the town of Tracadie.

It’s currently represented by Attorney General Serge Rousselle, a former Université de Moncton dean of law who trounced PC incumbent Claude Landry in a landslide in 2014. But after just one term, Rousselle bowed out of politics in order to seek “a more balanced life”.

Rousselle’s executive assistant Keith Chiasson is taking up the Liberal mantle this time, while Landry is back to carry the PC banner. The math favours the Liberals on the north shore, but it’s not a lock.
Likely Liberal

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Located at the far northeast corner of the province, this riding includes the town of Shippagan, Lameque and Miscou Islands (including the town of Lamèque), and a string of smaller fishing villages.

It may be the most Conservative francophone riding in the province, with the possible exception of the Edmundston area. It started with the late Jean Gauvin, a former Hatfield cabinet minister once known as “vroom vroom” for his, um, flashy official car choices all on the taxpayer’s dime. His constituents still loved him, and he was one of only 3 PCs to win in 1991. It continued with Paul Robichaud, who served from 1999 to 2014 (and served as Alward’s deputy premier) before he lost by only 44 votes to Liberal Wilfrid Roussel.

This year, Roussel is matched up with Jean Gauvin’s son Robert, who’s spent the last 17 years as an actor and comedian, including bit roles on shows like Smallville. With Jeannot Volpé’s penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth (see below), this may be the Tories’ best chance at a Francophone seat.
PC-Liberal tossup

Caraquet
The town of Caraquet, despite having a population of only 4200, calls itself “la Capitale de l’Acadie”, and has an outsized influence on the Acadian arts and culture scene. The province’s only francophone newspaper L’Acadie Nouvelle is based there, and it has the largest celebration of the Acadians’ national day of August 15. The riding includes the town and several surrounding villages.

The biggest political issue in the area has been the new shipyard in the village of Bas-Caraquet, which was a municipal make-work project that started in 2014 and had to be bailed out by the province in 2016, but is now on its feet.  

Hédard Albert, Caraquet’s Liberal MLA since 2003, has stepped down for health reasons. Juno-nominated musician and entrepreneur Isabelle Theriault is running for the Liberals this time.

Her PC opponent is Caraquet mayor Kevin Haché. Blaine Higgs thought he had a star candidate in Haché, and used his nomination meeting as a photo op to “introduce” himself to the Acadian community with his first-ever speech entirely in French. (The news that he wouldn’t take part in a French debate broke the next day, so out went that narrative.) It should have been a close race on paper, but Higgs’ failings in the francophone community leads me to give this one to Theriault.
Leaning Liberal

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint Isidore
The boundaries commission, in its infinite wisdom, decided to split the city of Bathurst into two “rurban” ridings. This one merges the mostly Anglophone downtown and east end of the city with the Francophone communities around Allardville and Saint-Isidore.

Incumbent Liberal MLA Denis Landry has been in and out of the legislature several times since he was first elected in the old Centre-Péninsule riding in 1995. Former Bathurst councillor Michelle Branch has the PC nomination; she was one of the incumbents on council that was replaced with 100% new faces in 2016. Jean-Maurice Landry (no relation) has an active campaign for the NDP.

Urban-rural divide? Maybe. My guess? Probably not. The fact that the franco vote is more heavily Liberal than the anglo vote is PC should keep Landry in office.
Likely Liberal

Bathurst West-Beresford
This is the more francophone of the two Bathurst ridings, it also includes the suburban town of Beresford.

Liberal Brian Kenny has been in the legislature since 2003, first when all of Bathurst was in one riding and now in this one. He’s served various posts in both the Graham and Gallant cabinets, most recently as Minister of Education.

I can’t find any sort of biographical info about PC candidate Yvon Landry, which probably isn’t a good sign.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche-Chaleur
This riding includes a string of mostly Acadian fishing villages between Bathurst and Dalhousie. There’s also a seaport and coal-fired power plant in Belledune, which emission targets will force to close by 2030.

It’s a heavily Liberal seat, the NDP even finished 2nd in 2014. Daniel Guitard won his first term 4 years ago, succeeding longtime MLA Roland Haché. With weak PC and NDP candidates this time, Guitard should be easily re-elected.
Safe Liberal

Campbellton-Dalhousie
This riding includes the two largest urban centres in the Restigouche region. Campbellton is the larger of the two and is (slightly) better off economically, but Dalhousie has lost almost all of its large industries over the last 10 years. Campbellton was also the centre of the “free the beer” court case, which surprisingly hasn’t come up as much as I thought in this election.

Donald Arseneault, a Liberal MLA since 2003, quit to become a lobbyist last year. (He also briefly tried to serve as MLA at the same time, which as you can imagine is a big no-no). The Liberal nomination battle this year was probably more exciting than the election will be, with former MP Guy Arseneault winning out over both the mayors of Campbellton and Dalhousie.

Campbellton councillor Diane Cyr is running for the PCs, CUPE rep Therese Tremblay is running for the NDP.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche West
Historically this was one of the most interesting ridings in the province every election. It was made up of two towns of roughly equal size. Kedgwick always voted Liberal, Saint-Quentin always voted PC. The towns were demographically exactly the same, mostly francophone, mostly based on forestry. They voted differently for no other reason but lame regional rivalry. Even during the McKenna sweep in 1987, the margin of victory was only 17 votes. These days, thanks to boundary changes adding the more bilingual towns of Atholville, Tide Head and Balmoral, that effect is diluted, but you can still see it in poll-by-poll results.

(As an aside, and this has nothing to do with the election, just a comment on the ridiculousness of government in this province: along the side of highway 17 in this riding, there is a small monument commemorating the site of New Brunswick’s first provincial park. There’s no park there anymore - it was closed during budget cutbacks in the 90s - but there’s sure a nice monument.)
Liberal incumbent Gilles LePage is seeking his second term in the legislature. Former Saint-Quentin mayor David Moreau is carrying the PC banner and seems to have one of the more active campaigns for them in the north. Documentary filmmaker and Green candidate Charles Theriault won 18% of the vote in 2014 as an independent.
Likely Liberal

Victoria-La Vallée
This riding is centred on the town of Grand Falls, at the northern end of the province’s potato belt. Other towns include the farming community of Drummond and the forestry centre of Saint-Leonard. It’s mostly francophone but with a significant anglo minority.

The race this year is a rematch between one-term incumbent Liberal Chuck Chiasson, and his immediate predecessor, one-term PC Danny Soucy. I’m giving Chiasson the upper hand just based on the Liberals’ province-wide francophone strength.
Likely Liberal

Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Like Bathurst, the boundary commission divided Edmundston into two “rurban” seats for the 2014 election. In this riding, the eastern end of the city is lumped in with the suburb of Saint-Basile and the rural villages of Sainte-Anne and Rivière-Verte.

Edmundston is one of the few places in northern New Brunswick where the economy is doing fine, in fact a CBC report earlier this week mentioned some businesses had the opposite problem – a lack of skilled workers in the area. But Trump’s tariffs may hit the city hard soon, as the city’s largest employer is in a weird position: the Twin Rivers pulp mill is connected by underground pipes to a paper mill right across the river in Madawaska, Maine.

Bernard Valcourt established a beachhead for the PCs in the Madawaska region when he was leader in 1995. Now-Senator Percy Mockler represented the rural part of this riding for several years, and Mado Dubé, who represented the city after Valcourt left provincial politics, served in the cabinets of both Lord and Alward.

Dubé, the last of the francophone class of 1999 for the PCs, is not running this time. The odds-on favourite is now former Liberal MP Jean-Claude d’Amours. Lawyer Gerard Levesque is running for the Tories. If there’s one Liberal pickup from the PCs in the province, this should be it.
Likely Liberal

Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston
Finally, in the far northwest corner of the province, is this riding, made up of the part of Edmundston west of the Madawaska River, the suburbs of Saint-Jacques and Verret, and a string of farming communities along the Saint John River and CN mainline to the west. A large chicken processing plant is located in Clair.

Economic development minister Francine Landry is seeking her second term for the Liberals, but Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is also seeking a return to politics. He publicly criticized Blaine Higgs when Higgs was finance minister for not keeping the deficit under control (to be fair, he was kind of hamstrung by Alward on that), but has kept his mouth shut about him so far on the campaign.

He has not kept his mouth shut about women though….in a radio interview last week, Volpé talked about how he had 3 boys, but would like a girl as a “dish washer”. Landry has taken that quote and plastered it all over social media. It’s getting nasty up there.
PC-Liberal tossup

[Hatman 🍁]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

[the506]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

Welcome to the tribal world of east coast politics.

[DC Al Fine]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

Welcome to the tribal world of east coast politics.

This.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at how Saint-Quentin votes federally, and yup, in typical Atlantic Canadian fashion, when they decide they don't want to vote Conservative, they vote NDP.

[JoeyOCanada]

So I could only get through about 25 minutes of that leaders' roundtable because I've had enough of Brian Gallant talking about Blaine Higgs' time as finance minister and constantly hearing the word "cuts" but I guess that's NB politics baby

[the506]

Both Higgs and Gallant were punchier. I think Coon won by default.

[DC Al Fine]

Looking at how Saint-Quentin votes federally, and yup, in typical Atlantic Canadian fashion, when they decide they don't want to vote Conservative, they vote NDP.

Aren't are politics glorious

[the506]

Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Another telephone survey showing the Liberals with a larger lead than the IVR polling. Looking forward to Mainstreet's numbers.

[mileslunn]

Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

If PA + PC get more votes than Liberals and vote splitting costs the PCs the election, I think you will start to see the federal Tories be more concerned about Maxime Bernier's People's Party as in some ways this is a proxy for what might come federally with PCs being equivalent to the Tories and PA equivalent to the People's Party.

[the506]

This back's up Earl's assertion that the Greens are in the mix in more seats than we first thought. They've released an internal poll showing them in 2nd in Memramcook-Tantramar.
https://twitter.com/matchism/status/1043157434875834368

Just from my view of the lay of the land, I now also wouldn't be surprised if Fredericton North had a weird result too....PC, LIB, GRN and PA could all get 20+%.

As for the People's Alliance....watch out for old COR-country seats like Southwest Miramichi, Albert and Carleton-York. They may now be within spitting distance of the PCs. Not to mention others (Oromocto-Lincoln and several around Saint John) where they may have risen enough to get Liberals elected on a vote split.

[adma]

Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

If PA + PC get more votes than Liberals and vote splitting costs the PCs the election, I think you will start to see the federal Tories be more concerned about Maxime Bernier's People's Party as in some ways this is a proxy for what might come federally with PCs being equivalent to the Tories and PA equivalent to the People's Party.

At least when it comes to New Brunswick--thanks to the CoR tradition, it's probably the next likeliest spot for the People's Party to be competitive after Beauce; but that could also turn out to be the "electable" limits of its reach...