German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It seems all seats are counted.  For second vote it seems to be

CDU/CSU    33.0  32.9
SPD            20.5
Linke           9.2
Greens        8.9
FDP           10.7
AfD            12.6

AfD under-performed exit polls.

DONNIE IS RIGHT; THE UNION ONLY GOT 32.9%. IT'S A ROUNDING ERROR THAT THE MEDIA COPY FROM EACH OTHER. SCHWEINEREI!!! 😡😡😡

[Tender Branson]

Did you listen to Gauland (AfD) and his victory speech ?

He said "Wir werden Merkel jagen ..." (we are going to chase Merkel).

Reminds me of Khan in "Star Trek: The Wrath of Khan.", when he said about Kirk: "I'll chase him round the moons of Nibia and round the Antares maelstrom and round perdition's flames before I give him up!"

[IceAgeComing]

There will be 709 seats in the Bundestag.

709

That means 111 overhang and balance seats.

111 is insane, that has to be a record, right?

What's the maximum possible number of overhang/balance seats? Like is there even a legal limit? If not, what is the largest theoretically possible size the bundestag can get?

Before the Constitutional Court made them change the system the maximum overhang was 298 or however many constituency seats there are - un some impossible situation where independents won every direct swat or something silly.  With the new rules that mandate national balancing seats to make sure that the Bundestag is proportional, the theoretical number is a lot higher.  Unlikely for that to happen though although the more parties elected increases the chance of an overhang as the CDU and SPD will likely always collectively have the vast vast majority of constituency seats.

They could put a maximum in but then you have to work out what seats to take away - list seats would be the only option (since then some districts would randomly be deprived representation of no fault of their own) and then the smaller parties would challenge it for the same reasons that they challenged the old system.  That is also the issue with all of the solutions - the old one that allowed parties to keep overhangs without balancing seats was thrown out for being unproportional, which would be an issue if you didn't want to grow the size of the Bundestag at all (that would basically allow parties to retain overhangs whilst the number of list members elected would be reduced to keep the Bundestag at the right size - that's kind of what we do here and it advantages the big parties a lot); and the other option (removing the overhang by taking those overhang seats away) would force the question of what seats to take away from a party that effectively has very few list members, and which would deny some districts representation.  It's complex and there's no easy solution, the current one is probably the least worst if you value proportionality and local representation.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Year	Chancellor candidate	CSU top candidate	Union (PV)	Union (%)	CSU (PV)	CSU (% fed.)	CSU (% Bav.)	CSU share
1949	Konrad Adenauer	Hanns Seidel	7,359,084	31.0%	1,380,448	5.8%	29.2%	18.8%
1953	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	12,443,981	45.2%	2,427,387	8.9%	47.8%	19.5%
19571)	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	15,008,399	50.2%	3,133,060	10.5%	57.2%	20.9%
1961	Konrad Adenauer	Franz J. Strauß	14,298,372	45.3%	3,014,471	9.6%	54.9%	21.1%
1965	Ludwig Erhard	Franz J. Strauß	15,524,068	47.6%	3,136,506	9.6%	55.6%	20.2%
1969	Kurt G. Kiesinger	Franz J. Strauß	15,195,187	46.1%	3,115,652	9.5%	54.4%	20.5%
19722)	Rainer Barzel	Franz J. Strauß	16,806,020	44.9%	3,615,183	9.7%	55.1%	21.5%
1976	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,394,801	48.6%	4,027,499	10.6%	60.0%	21.9%
1980	Franz J. Strauß	Franz J. Strauß	16,897,659	44.5%	3,908,459	10.3%	57.6%	23.1%
1983	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,998,545	48.8%	4,140,865	10.6%	59.5%	21.8%
1987	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	16,761,572	44.3%	3,715,827	9.8%	55.1%	22.2%
19903)	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	20,358,096	43.8%	3,302,980	7.1%	51.9%	16.2%
1994	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	19,517,156	41.4%	3,427,196	7.3%	51.2%	17.6%
1998	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	17,329,388	35.1%	3,324,480	6.7%	47.7%	19.2%
2002	Edmund Stoiber	Edmund Stoiber	18,482,641	38.5%	4,315,080	9.0%	58.6%	23.3%
2005	Angela Merkel	Edmund Stoiber	16,631,049	35.2%	3,494,309	7.4%	49.2%	21.0%
2009	Angela Merkel	Peter Ramsauer	14,658,515	33.8%	2,830,238	6.5%	42.5%	19.3%
2013	Angela Merkel	Gerda Hasselfeldt	18,165,446	41.5%	3,243,569	7.4%	49.3%	17.9%
2017	Angela Merkel	Joachim Herrmann	15,315,576	32.9%	2,869,744	6.2%	38.8%	18.7%

1) First election after the Saarland's reunification with West Germany. Only time the CSU also competed outside of Bavaria; the federal CSU result includes the Saarland votes.
2) The voting age had been lowered from 21 to 18, hence the marked increase in votes.
3) First election after Reunification, hence the large increase in votes.


Even though the CSU received one of its worst results ever, its share in Union votes has risen significantly.

[jaichind]

Even though the CSU received one of its worst results ever, its share in Union votes has risen significantly.

Is this because of higher turnout in Bavaria?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Even though the CSU received one of its worst results ever, its share in Union votes has risen significantly.

Is this because of higher turnout in Bavaria?

Ho, I think it's because the decline in CDU votes is much steeper than the decline in CSU votes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Did you listen to Gauland (AfD) and his victory speech ?

He said "Wir werden Merkel jagen ..." (we are going to chase Merkel).

Reminds me of Khan in "Star Trek: The Wrath of Khan.", when he said about Kirk: "I'll chase him round the moons of Nibia and round the Antares maelstrom and round perdition's flames before I give him up!"

Die PARTEI - who won its best national election result ever - was quick to announce that they're now going to chase Gauland (and rerect the Wall, of course).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Tagesschau, the biggest and most important newscast of Germany, just announced the wrong Union results again. I want my money back! 😡😡😡

[Sozialliberal]

Free voters have become the eighth-biggest party with 1.0%, narrowly leading Die PARTEI by 10,000 votes.

The Free Voters also gained about 39,000 party list votes in this election. Hip hip hooray!

I don't worry too much about the AfD. We''ll see a lot of infighting from them in the next years. We already saw that in the state parliaments. I think Petry's announcement that she doesn't want to sit with AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag is just the beginning.

[DavidB.]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

[Hydera]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

[jaichind]

[Helsinkian]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

[DavidB.]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

Well, that's obviously what she says, but I'm wondering about the real reason. Petry herself had made AfD much more extreme and thereby completely uncoalitionable already.

[jaichind]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Well for a fair apples-to-apples comparison then you have to add in the German Bundesrat to the number of German MPs.

[palandio]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

Well, that's obviously what she says, but I'm wondering about the real reason. Petry herself had made AfD much more extreme and thereby completely uncoalitionable already.

The reasons why Petry leaves the AfD caucus are highly debateable. I personally am amazed how so many non-Afd-sympathizers were ready to buy into her story from the moment she lost the power struggle against Gauland, Meuthen and Co. I mean, she was leading a far-right putsch in an alreading right-leaning party and suddenly people believe her just because it fits into their narrative.
Petry, instigated by her husband Pretzell, wanted to transform the AfD into a leader-centered party like many right-wing populist parties in Europe are. This concept doesn't work for the AfD and she should have known her own party better. She also was at odds with the rest of the leadership (some of them historically more "moderate" than her like Meuthen) for mainly personal reasons.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I'm happy with the performance of Die Linke and the Greens, but unhappy that the FDP will be in the next government and will most likely get the finance ministry.
I hope the SPD re-considers its stance, but I understand why they want nothing to do with the pathetic CDU.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Rhineland-Palatinate is the only "Americanized" Land in terms of election. It has been an SPD stronghold in statewide elections since 1993, but countrywide it overwhelmingly votes CDU; only in 1998 a narrow plurality voted SPD.

And what I said applied to Rhineland-Palatinate more than ever.
The CDU obtained its best nationwide result in that Land with 35.9%.

PS: I don't wanna boast, but ...

My prediction for 2017:

5.) CDU: Rhineland-Palatinate/ Berlin

[rob in cal]

So whats the deal with the SPD winning those clusters of directmandat seats in rural parts of Niedersachsen and Hesse?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So whats the deal with the SPD winning those clusters of directmandat seats in rural parts of Niedersachsen and Hesse?

The red area in Southern Lower Saxony is where VW and Audi are located. Furthermore, Sigmar Gabriel's and Thomas Oppermann's constituencies lie in that area.

Northern Hesse is a bit strange. It's like Alaska or New Hampshire, where the more densely-populated areas are more conservative. Maybe it's because in Northern Hesse is more Protestant and the South is more Catholic.

[Sozialliberal]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

Well, that's obviously what she says, but I'm wondering about the real reason. Petry herself had made AfD much more extreme and thereby completely uncoalitionable already.

The reasons why Petry leaves the AfD caucus are highly debateable. I personally am amazed how so many non-Afd-sympathizers were ready to buy into her story from the moment she lost the power struggle against Gauland, Meuthen and Co. I mean, she was leading a far-right putsch in an alreading right-leaning party and suddenly people believe her just because it fits into their narrative.
Petry, instigated by her husband Pretzell, wanted to transform the AfD into a leader-centered party like many right-wing populist parties in Europe are. This concept doesn't work for the AfD and she should have known her own party better. She also was at odds with the rest of the leadership (some of them historically more "moderate" than her like Meuthen) for mainly personal reasons.

Maybe Petry wants to attract voters as a wolf in sheep's clothing (Norbert Hofer style): Moderate on the outside (public image), radical on the inside (actual policies).

[palandio]

So whats the deal with the SPD winning those clusters of directmandat seats in rural parts of Niedersachsen and Hesse?

The red area in Southern Lower Saxony is where VW and Audi are located. Furthermore, Sigmar Gabriel's and Thomas Oppermann's constituencies lie in that area.

Audi? Seriously?! VW (Wolfsburg) is located to the north-eastern end of the mentioned area. The SPD strength in most of Southern Lower Saxony has nothing to do with it. Gabriel and particularly Oppermann are just two SPD politicians with few effect outside their own constituencies.
(Sorry if that sounds rude but I've read so much hot take analysis on the atlas that sometimes I can get impatient.)

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Yes, protestantism (or rather the absence [except for Hildesheim and a small part of the Eichsfeld] of historically SPD-impeding catholicism) plays a role in Northern Hesse, Southern Lower Saxony and neighboring parts of Westfalia and Lippe. One might of course ask why the areas north of Hannover are slightly less SPD-friendly. Well, they're flatter, traditionally less industrial and former strongholds of the (conservative) Guelf loyalists.
(And not everything needs to be compared to the USA. I our case the comparison is also inappropriate because Hannover, Braunschweig, Kassel and Salzgitter are even less conservative than the surrounding.)

[Former President tack50]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Then again it's worth noting that Germany will have a parliament only barely smaller than that of the entire European Union (751 MEPs). Sure, Germany is a large country but 711 MPs is too many IMO.

They should probably cap their number of MPs to 598 (the number of direct mandates*2), and elect the list MPs from a single at-large list. Not sure how that would affect the results though. Maybe a tiny bit less proportional but probably not enough to worry.

Then again according to the cube root rule Germany should only have like 435 seats so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[jaichind]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Then again it's worth noting that Germany will have a parliament only barely smaller than that of the entire European Union (751 MEPs). Sure, Germany is a large country but 711 MPs is too many IMO.

They should probably cap their number of MPs to 598 (the number of direct mandates*2), and elect the list MPs from a single at-large list. Not sure how that would affect the results though. Maybe a tiny bit less proportional but probably not enough to worry.

Then again according to the cube root rule Germany should only have like 435 seats so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But if you did that you lose the pure proportionality rule.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

We now have a German equivalent for the term blue dog.

Judge Jens Maier, a newly-elected AfD member of parliament and a fierce opponent of Frauke Petry, who is often referred to as "Lil' Höcke", was asked how Petry won her direct seat if she is really as despised in her party as he claims.
He answered that her constituency is so friendly towards the AfD taht even a "blue broom" would have been elected there.
That reminds me so much of the etymology of the term blue dog.