More likely to flip OK or KS?

[PoliticalShelter]

When people ask what safe republican state a democrat can win the governorship, these two states are generally regarded as the two most likely to flip. But which do you think is more likely to flip?

Personally I initially thought it would be Kansas as Brownback has developed a infamous reputation as one of the worst governors in America. However looking at some of the recent special elections in Oklahoma and the fact that Brownback is going to leave pretty soon, I'm no longer really sure anymore.

 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ks, on all levels.

[Greedo punched first]

Kansas. Brownback is unpopular. The KS GOP primary will be competitive.

[Maxwell]

Kansas for sure.

[Cactus Jack]

Kansas by a country mile. It's been driven into the dust by its state GOP and Kris Kobach is an electoral disaster in the making.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas is more likely to flip, but if Democrats couldn't flip the seat in 2014 with Brownback on the ballot, I find it hard to believe they'll win in 2018.

[smoltchanov]

Kansas is more likely to flip, but if Democrats couldn't flip the seat in 2014 with Brownback on the ballot, I find it hard to believe they'll win in 2018.

Sure. But 2014 was Obama's midterm (second), and 2018 will be Trump's (first)

[Skunk]

Kansas, though if OK flips and KS doesn't I wouldn't be terribly surprised.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Kansas is more likely to flip, but if Democrats couldn't flip the seat in 2014 with Brownback on the ballot, I find it hard to believe they'll win in 2018.

Sure. But 2014 was Obama's midterm (second), and 2018 will be Trump's (first)

Not to mention 2018 may be an open seat race (depends on whether or not Brownback resigns, but Colyer may face a competitive primary anyway if he does).

[MAINEiac4434]

Both Fallin and Brownback are unpopular, but I think Kansas is more elastic than Oklahoma, and the KSDems have a deeper bench.

[Virginiá]

I'm not sure how much Colyer's short time as Governor would matter, incumbency-wise. He'll have had little public exposure as Governor at that point, and will never have been elected Governor before in his own right. I think there is much more to the incumbent effect than just their position at the time of the election.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

From historical perspective it's hard to think of a state so generically Republican as Kansas, but Oklahoma got so deep, deep red the answer is Kansas by default.

Also, party affilation aside, Kansas is more moderate politically. In fact, it's been frequently said Kansas is a three-party state: Democrats, Moderate Republicans and Conservative Republicans.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kansas. It's less overwhelmingly Republican than Oklahoma, Brownback is more unpopular than Fallin, and Kobach has the whole Voter Commission baggage on him.

[Adam Griffin]

Conditions are increasingly becoming similar in both states, but KS has demonstrated a willingness to elect Democrats statewide more recently and is 10-20 points less Republican (margin-wise) than Oklahoma.

[KingSweden]

Kansas. It's less overwhelmingly Republican than Oklahoma, Brownback is more unpopular than Fallin, and Kobach has the whole Voter Commission baggage on him.

[Figueira]

The only thing with Kansas is that the Republicans could be running an incumbent.

[JoeR]

I realise that you really can't over extrapolate from a presidential election,  but the total absence of blue counties just deprives the Dems of any sort of springboard to base a campaign on. When no-ones interested in your message where do you start?

Where's the Douglas and Wyendotte counties in OK?

[TheLeftwardTide]

I realise that you really can't over extrapolate from a presidential election,  but the total absence of blue counties just deprives the Dems of any sort of springboard to base a campaign on. When no-ones interested in your message where do you start?

Where's the Douglas and Wyendotte counties in OK?

Little Dixie, or Southeastern Oklahoma, used to be a Democratic stronghold. In a sense, it still kind of is on the local level, electing a few Democrats to the State House.