Democrats' path to victory in the House?

[Figueira]

Basically, list the top 24 Republican-held districts in order of likeliness to flip.

Here's my rough opinion right now:

Florida 27
California 49
Texas 23
Virginia 10
Washington 8
California 10
Michigan 11
Kansas 3
Florida 26
Colorado 6
New Jersey 3
California 21
California 25
Minnesota 3
California 39
Iowa 1
California 48
Pennsylvania 15
Arizona 2
Nebraska 2
Iowa 3
Kansas 2
New York 1
Texas 7

A lot of these districts I don't know that much about though.

[PoliticalShelter]

No Maine 02?

[Figueira]

No Maine 02?

Ehhhh I'm kind of skeptical on that one. It's definitely up there, but I'm not sure if it belongs in the path to victory.

I kind of regret not putting CA-45 in there though.

[Young Conservative]

I think Comstock can hold onto her seat. She can tough a vote against the ACHA and every repeal attempt.

[_]

I agree with this path, and approve that no IL or NY R seats are on it, I can't see any of them flipping in 2018, they'll be closer than 2016 ofc, but won't flip.  (Though I'd have TX-23 lower personally, as I believe Hurd is a strong incumbent.)

[Orser67]

Will flip:
1)FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen, retiring)

Probably flips if Democrats take the House:
2)WA-8 (Dave Reichert, retiring)
3)MN-2 (Jason Lewis)
4)FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)
5)TX-23 (Will Hurd)
6)CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
7)CA-25 (Steve Knight)
8)VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)
9)NY-19 (John Faso)
10)AZ-2 (Martha McSally)
11)CA-48 (Dana Rohrabacher)
12)CA-10 (Jeff Denham)
13)NE-2 (Don Bacon)
14)IA-1 (Rod Blum)
15)CA-39 (Ed Royce)
16)MI-11 (Dave Trott, retiring)
17)CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
18)MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
19)PA-15 (Charlie Dent, retiring)

Some of these will flip if Dems take House:
17)IA-3 (David Young)
18)PA-8 (Mike Fitzpatrick)
19)PA-6 (Ryan Costello)
20)KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
21)GA-6 (Karen Handel)
22)CA-45 (Mimi Walters)
23)ME-2 (Bruce Poliquin)
24)CA-21 (David Valadao)
NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
PA-7 (Pat Meehan)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
NJ-3 (Tom MacArthur)
IL-12 (Mike Bost)
MI-8 (Mike Bishop)
PA-16 (Lloyd Smucker)
VA-2 (Scott Taylor)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-24 (John Katko)
IL-13 (Rodney Davis)
MT-AL (Greg Gianforte)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
KY-6 (Andy Barr)

[smoltchanov]

Well, to win 24 seats you need approximately 24x2=48 district list..... So far i don't have so long list of Republican vilnerable seats. As a result - my present forecast os more modest. But - i agree with "general direction" of lists above - jusy not as optimistic as someone are...

[Figueira]

Well, to win 24 seats you need approximately 24x2=48 district list..... So far i don't have so long list of Republican vilnerable seats. As a result - my present forecast os more modest. But - i agree with "general direction" of lists above - jusy not as optimistic as someone are...

The point of this is to predict which seats Democrats will win if they eke out a narrow majority, not to speculate hon how likely that is.

[PragmaticPopulist]

FL-27
WA-08
MI-11
CA-49
VA-10
CA-10
TX-23
CA-25
MN-02
FL-26
CO-06
MN-03
CA-48
NE-02
AZ-02
ME-02
IA-01
NY-19
CA-39
IA-03
PA-15
NY-22
NJ-11
PA-07
KS-03 (tipping point)

After that, there's probably gonna be a few surprises.

Rs will likely gain MN-01, unless if Waltz is the nominee for governor, his coattails may be enough to drag the D nominees in MN-01 across the finish line.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How in the world are TX-7, TX-32, PA-16 and KY-6 (!!!) on this list?  Those are all Safe R.

[TheSaint250]

How in the world are TX-7, TX-32, PA-16 and KY-6 (!!!) on this list?  Those are all Safe R.

As is FL-25

[Brittain33]

I think Comstock can hold onto her seat. She can tough a vote against the ACHA and every repeal attempt.

She's the Connie Morella of 2018

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How in the world are TX-7, TX-32, PA-16 and KY-6 (!!!) on this list?  Those are all Safe R.

- TX-7 is lean-R (closer to tossup tilt-R than likely R).  Several of the Democrats are looking like very strong recruits (IIRC, two have already out-raised Culberson in the last fundraising report, but either way a few raised a ton of money).  Plus, this is the sort of area where you'd see a strong anti-Trump backlash among even many Republicans.  Given that 2018 is gonna probably be a pretty big Democratic wave, I could definitely see this flipping (especially if Democrats are already taking the House).  That said, Culberson doesn't strike me as a weak incumbent and will get as much money as he needs, so he's favored (at least for now, this strikes me as the type race that could shift heavily toward the Democratic nominee in September/October '18). 

- TX-32 is likely R (closer to safe than lean R).  I think Democrats could've won if they'd managed to recruit Mike Rawlings (although even then it'd be a tough race), but he was basically our best shot here.  An open seat would be one thing, but Sessions is gonna have a ton of money if he needs it and I don't see him losing.  That said, Democrats should start regularly running strong candidates here and it's a great place for wave insurance (something I actually thing the DCCC hasn't been very good about so far this cycle).  The current Democratic field is respectable given the circumstances and will do better against Sessions than most expect (he may even have to waste some of the RCCC's money here), but Sessions should win by high single-digits/low double-digits at worst. 

PA-16 is another likely R race with a strong incumbent where it still makes sense to run wave/retirement insurance.  I'd prefer a stronger Democrat than Hartman, but at the very least the margin will likely be much closer than 2016 and the RCCC will likely have to waste some money here.  It'd take a really big wave for Hartman to unseat Smucker, but stranger things have happened in wave years.

KY-6 is smack in the middle of lean R.  I've never been impressed with Andy Barr and have said ever since he got elected that he was the sort of "meh," anonymous backbencher who can easily surprise folks by getting swept out in a wave if he faces a strong opponent despite being in pretty solid shape on paper.  The Democrats managed to recruit an excellent candidate here who has already run what I'm pretty sure will turn out to be two of the best political ads of the cycle (easily the best house campaign ads I've seen since John Barrow's gun ad).  Barr is a weak incumbent and this district isn't nearly as rough for Democrats as most of KY.  Even Jim Gray – the openly gay Mayor of Lexington – won this district when he ran for Senate in 2016 IIRC. 

This reminds me a little bit of MN-1 in 2006: An anonymous Republican incumbent in a Democratic wave cycle facing a strong Democratic challenger with no political experience in a district many in both parties have written off (even in October 2006, I don't think anyone expected Walz to win or even necessarily come all that close)...only for the Democrats to score an unexpected pickup.  The difference is that Barr is weaker than Gutknecht and McGrath is stronger than Walz.  These are the sorts of districts people are talking about when they say Democrats need to focus on expanding the playing field. 

On a different note, I think it's way too early to say what the path to victory is since there are a number of competitive seats where we don't yet know who the Democrats are running (ex: NY-1, PA-8, MI-11, OH-1, CA-21, VA-2, etc, etc, etc) and others that could easily become quite competitive with a strong recruit the way NC-2 recently did (ex: NJ-2, OH-16, AR-2, WI-7, GA-6, IL-13, NY-11, etc, etc, etc).  I know "we don't know and won't know until February/March at the earliest" isn't as exciting an answer, but it is the real answer to the OP's question.

[Nyvin]

How in the world are TX-7, TX-32, PA-16 and KY-6 (!!!) on this list?  Those are all Safe R.

As is FL-25

Tx-7 and FL-25 are definitely not safe R.  I wouldn't quite call them toss ups but they are vulnerable.