VA-PSRA/UofMW: Northam +5

[Ebsy]

http://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2017_Third-Topline-0920.pdf

GOV:

Northam: 44
Gillespie: 39
Hyra (Libertarian): 3

Lt GOV:

Vogel (GOP): 40
Fairfax (DEM): 45

Atty Gen:

Adams (GOP): 40
Herring (DEM): 47

House of Delegates generic ballot:

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 43

Trump approval (among LVs):

Approve: 40
Disapprove: 55

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Northam leads narrowly. News at 11.

[Virginiá]

House of Delegates generic ballot:

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 43

I'm very curious how much Democrats need to win the HoD popular vote by to win a slim majority in the chamber. Six points is quite a bit, and I've generic polls go even higher over the past couple months.

[heatcharger]

I already posted this btw.

House of Delegates generic ballot:

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 43

I'm very curious how much Democrats need to win the HoD popular vote by to win a slim majority in the chamber. Seven points is quite a bit, and I've generic polls go even higher over the past couple months.

Regional cross tabs would be nice for figuring that out, but NoVA is often too loosely defined anyway.

[Ebsy]

Sorry, mods feel free to combine the threads!

[Matty]

Seems like this will be very similar to the 2016 general election in VA.

Is it likely that Northam is outperforming hillary in rural virginia, but gillespie doing better than donald in northern va?

[Devout Centrist]

Northam leads narrowly. News at 11.

Oh my god

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Northam leads narrowly. News at 11.

Oh my god

?

[BudgieForce]

Northam leads narrowly. News at 11.

Oh my god

?

5 points isn't narrow.

[MT Treasurer]

Looking forward to all the "Republicans are doomed forever!" threads when the race is called for Northam.

Still think Democrats could sweep everything in 2017, including AL-SEN and making big gains in the VA/NJ legislatures.

[The Other Castro]

Looking forward to all the "Republicans are doomed forever!" threads when the race is called for Northam.

Still think Democrats could sweep everything in 2017, including AL-SEN and making big gains in the VA/NJ legislatures.

Well first we'll get the Democrats are doomed routine when the initial results in VA show Gillespie leading by a lot, so by the end of the night it'll all balance out.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking forward to all the "Republicans are doomed forever!" threads when the race is called for Northam.

Still think Democrats could sweep everything in 2017, including AL-SEN and making big gains in the VA/NJ legislatures.

Well first we'll get the Democrats are doomed routine when the initial results in VA show Gillespie leading by a lot, so by the end of the night it'll all balance out.

Oh god, yeah. People forget that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts always report first. How many times have we been through this already, lol?

Well, various media outlets are honestly to blame here. Every election we get told that this is the year when republicans fall off a cliff in Non-Northern Virginia and lose statewide by over 10%, then we get the media fantasizing about a "Cinderella Story" for Rs in VA during the early count, then the "Will Fairfax do it?" dilemma happens, and then we get to the end of the count with the same result as we always get - Dems win by single digits, and never by more than 6% (Aside from Northam v. Jackson). I don't expect this to change in the foreseeable future.

[Xing]

Seems like we have a good idea where this race stands right now. Lean D.

[windjammer]

Looking forward to all the "Republicans are doomed forever!" threads when the race is called for Northam.

Still think Democrats could sweep everything in 2017, including AL-SEN and making big gains in the VA/NJ legislatures.

AL-SEN is highly unlikely, even with these 2 "great" candidates lol

[Mr. Smith]

T-Mac was further ahead at this point against someone with even less cred.

[Gass3268]

T-Mac was further ahead at this point against someone with even less cred.

Why do people keep forgetting the Government Shutdown?

[Mr. Smith]

T-Mac was further ahead at this point against someone with even less cred.

Why do people keep forgetting the Government Shutdown?

You mean the one people blamed the GOP for, in a state run by the GOP at that point, by one of the most corrupt Governors no less?

[Smilin Jim]

Last year showed us that we shouldn't trust rigged democrat polls.

[Kamala]

Last year showed us that we shouldn't trust rigged democrat polls.

I can already tell you'll be a fantastic poster .

[Dr. Arch]

Last year showed us that we shouldn't trust rigged democrat polls.

I can already tell you'll be a fantastic poster .

I don't think we've had a good R-IA poster yet.

[Gass3268]

Should note that the Virginia polls were essentially on the money last year (Hillary actually over performed by 0.4%).

[windjammer]

House of Delegates generic ballot:

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 43

I'm very curious how much Democrats need to win the HoD popular vote by to win a slim majority in the chamber. Six points is quite a bit, and I've generic polls go even higher over the past couple months.

Considering that Hillary won the majority of seats with a 5 point margin. Something like 8 points margin should be enough?

[KingSweden]

Last year showed us that we shouldn't trust rigged democrat polls.

I can already tell you'll be a fantastic poster .

I don't think we've had a good R-IA poster yet.

The best R posters are from Illinois and Florida, for some reason