Rank the Obama states Trump flipped,on how likely they are to stay in his column
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Author Topic: Rank the Obama states Trump flipped,on how likely they are to stay in his column  (Read 1908 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: September 18, 2017, 05:50:37 PM »
in 2020


This is how I rank it


Most Likely


Ohio
Iowa
Florida
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan

Least Likely
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2017, 05:53:02 PM »
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan

Least Likely

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 05:56:02 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on September 18, 2017, 05:53:02 PM
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan

Least Likely




I disagree on Iowa being more Republican than Ohio , as in my opinion the GOP's share of the vote was much more maxed out in Iowa than Ohio.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2017, 05:58:45 PM »
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan

Least Likely
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 06:00:33 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on September 18, 2017, 05:56:02 PM
Quote from: TDAS04 on September 18, 2017, 05:53:02 PM
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan

Least Likely




I disagree on Iowa being more Republican than Ohio , as in my opinion the GOP's share of the vote was much more maxed out in Iowa than Ohio.




I doubt that either state will swing right (at least that's how it looks now, things could change).  If 2020 is more Republican than 2016, you'd probably be right, but if the Democrat wins, Ohio is more likely to flip.
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Da2017
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2017, 06:18:18 PM »
Most to least likely
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Michigan is the easiet to flip. Dems only need to increase Wayne County turn out. Iowa and Ohio are going to be an uphill climb.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 06:29:04 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 18, 2017, 05:58:45 PM
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan

Least Likely
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60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED
ahugecat
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 06:33:18 PM »
(From most to least):

1. Iowa
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Pennsylvania
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan

Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are obvious as they are perennial swing states. Trump's margins in Iowa and Ohio were pretty big and he got 51%+ of the vote in both of them. Florida his total votes was absolutely gargantuan and Rubio proves there's still some more to get.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will all be won by him in 2020 but PA will be the easiest. For one, it's the state Trump won by pure brute force. Clinton did everything right in that state (like in Florida) - held her convention there, did tons of rallies, ran ads, etc. etc. Trump still beat her with phenomenal turnout. Wisconsin on the other hand Trump had a very unique path to victory - Clinton lost due to turnout. So the question is can Trump get all his voters back in Wisconsin but also do as well as Romney or Bush in the suburbs? If he cans he wins easily in 2020.

Michigan on the other hand was tough. Clinton really had terrible turnout - only 2.2 million votes while Obama got 2.6 million. Trump only got 2.3 million and he really won because of her poor turnout. So to win in 2020 he will need to do what he needs to do in Wisconsin (get back the suburban Bush/Romney voters) but also try and steal a few more Democratic votes assuming the nominee won't have poor turnout like Clinton.

My predictions for 2020:

1. Iowa - Trump 54, D 44
2. Ohio - Trump 53, D 45
3. Florida - Trump 51, D 48
4. Pennsylvania - Trump 51, D 47
5. Wisconsin - Trump 50, D 48
6. Michigan - Trump 50, D 49
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 06:57:45 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2017, 07:00:07 PM by Solid4096 »
Most likely:

Indiana
<size-able gap>
Ohio
<size-able gap>
North Carolina
Florida
<size-able gap>
Iowa (I still believe that 2016 was a fluke in Iowa, and Iowa is still a lean Democrat state at its core)
Pennsylvania
Michigan
<size-able gap>
Wisconsin

: Least Likely

I decided to include the states Obama won in 2008 and lost in 2012.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 07:05:14 PM »
Most to least flippable:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Florida
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Ohio
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2017, 07:08:26 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 18, 2017, 05:58:45 PM
Most Likely

Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan

Least Likely
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BidenDuckworth2020
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2017, 11:22:31 PM »
Most Likely
Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Florida
Pennsylvania
Michigan

Least Likely
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2017, 11:24:47 PM »
Most likely
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Least Likely
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TML
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 12:51:02 AM »
While I'm at it, I'll include northern Maine:

Least Likely

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Northern Maine*
Ohio
Iowa

Most Likely

*Although Trump won northern Maine by 10%, its PVI is just R+2 compared to eastern Nebraska's R+4 (which he won by just 2%), so I think northern Maine will go back to D before eastern Nebraska does.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 01:04:25 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 18, 2017, 11:24:47 PM
Most likely
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Least Likely
Agreed.
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cvparty
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2017, 11:38:23 AM »
1. Ohio
2. Iowa
3. Florida
4. Pennsylvania
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
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Pericles
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2017, 04:41:13 PM »
1.Iowa
2. ME-02
3. Ohio
4. Florida
5. Pennsylvania
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2017, 11:24:47 PM »
Most

ME-2
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Least
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Cynthia
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2017, 07:08:56 PM »
Most likely

Indiana
Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Ohio
Iowa
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
North Carolina
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Least Likely
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cvparty
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2017, 09:38:34 PM »
Quote from: Cynthia on September 20, 2017, 07:08:56 PM
Most likely

Indiana
Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Ohio
Iowa
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
North Carolina
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Least Likely

Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska CD-2 were flipped by Romney not Trump
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2017, 09:41:45 PM »
Quote from: cvparty on September 19, 2017, 11:38:23 AM
1. Ohio
2. Iowa
3. Florida
4. Pennsylvania
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
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