Oregon Secretary of State
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Canis
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« on: September 17, 2017, 12:59:33 PM »


So a Republican won a state wide race in Oregon Last year how?
Richardson destroyed Avakin will he go for Governor again? or Will he try to take down Merkley or Wyden? I mean he almost beat the governor before kate brown? Also will he win reelection? it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2017, 01:15:35 PM »

it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state

It shouldn't be too shocking, politicians have overperformed the top of the ticket by much more in other states. In Oregon specifically, Democrats always seem to underperform presidential results at least in regards to gubernatorial races. Over the past generation, only in 1998 did a Democrat win in a blowout.
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Canis
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2017, 01:20:36 PM »

it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state

It shouldn't be too shocking, politicians have overperformed the top of the ticket by much more in other states. In Oregon specifically, Democrats always seem to underperform presidential results at least in regards to gubernatorial races. Over the past generation, only in 1998 did a Democrat win in a blowout.
A republican hasn't won a statewide race in oregon since 2002!
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2017, 01:30:33 PM »

It probably doesn't mean anything but taking a glance at Clackmas since 2004 in the Oregon SoS races it has swung GOP every time, completely ignoring the national swing.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2017, 01:47:20 PM »

Avakian had a controversial platform I think.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2017, 01:48:14 PM »


So a Republican won a state wide race in Oregon Last year how?
Richardson destroyed Avakin will he go for Governor again? or Will he try to take down Merkley or Wyden? I mean he almost beat the governor before kate brown? Also will he win reelection? it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state
He won clatsop county as well which hasn't gone republican for governor since at least 1990 or republican for president since 1956 although it was the closest county in 1984 and razor thin in 1972.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2017, 01:59:20 PM »


So a Republican won a state wide race in Oregon Last year how?
Richardson destroyed Avakin will he go for Governor again? or Will he try to take down Merkley or Wyden? I mean he almost beat the governor before kate brown? Also will he win reelection? it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state
He won clatsop county as well which hasn't gone republican for governor since at least 1990 or republican for president since 1956 although it was the closest county in 1984 and razor thin in 1972.
I have family in Clapstop I visited their July its main population center is a port city called astoria where sailors often stop on trips from seattle to stock up on supplies its a port city is their something Avakin had in his platform that would negatively impact them?
Yeah I know Astoria is really cool but I really honestly don't why Richardson won clatsop heck how did he win state wide even.

Novagreen make a series about the SOS race last year.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2017, 02:01:08 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2017, 02:04:02 PM by Southern Speaker TimTurner »

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/oregon_secretary_of_state_race.html
http://www.wweek.com/news/2016/04/20/labor-commissioner-brad-avakian-wants-to-re-define-the-secretary-of-states-job/
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Canis
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2017, 02:08:44 PM »

Hmm so a combination of Avakin running a terrible campaign and being a bad candidate (best known for lesbian cakes) and Richardson being a great candidate and running a great campaign. Also are Oregon republicans Socially conservative and Economically moderate?
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Spamage
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2017, 02:09:34 PM »


Indeed. I did not vote for Avakian, despite voting almost entirely Democratic everywhere else. What he wanted to do really was not a part of the traditional role of the Oregon SoS.

Richardson was also probably vindicated a bit after his loss in '14 to Kitzhaber.
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Canis
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2017, 02:12:43 PM »


Indeed. I did not vote for Avakian, despite voting almost entirely Democratic everywhere else. What he wanted to do really was not a part of the traditional role of the Oregon SoS.

Richardson was also probably vindicated a bit after his loss in '14 to Kitzhaber.
Did you vote vote for Richardson or third party?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2017, 02:17:21 PM »

Hmm so a combination of Avakin running a terrible campaign and being a bad candidate (best known for lesbian cakes) and Richardson being a great candidate and running a great campaign. Also are Oregon republicans Socially conservative and Economically moderate?
It appears as though the biggest problem for Avakian was his campaign to redefine the office (losing Dɛm support) and simultaneously Republicans not giving him much crossover support as well. However NovaGreen would likely answer your questions more satisfactorily.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2017, 02:23:42 PM »


Indeed. I did not vote for Avakian, despite voting almost entirely Democratic everywhere else. What he wanted to do really was not a part of the traditional role of the Oregon SoS.

Richardson was also probably vindicated a bit after his loss in '14 to Kitzhaber.
I guess it's telling it took someone like Avakian for the GOP to actually win something in Oregon.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2017, 02:36:52 PM »

I stand corrected clatsop voted for Richardson in 2014 as well.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2017, 02:56:52 PM »

Kate Brown said Richardson wouldn't run for Governor in 2018, but who knows if he changes his mind. He won because he was running against a bad candidate who was viewed as being too ambitious and just wanted to use the position of SOS as a springboard to a higher position.

I doubt Richardson will run for governor, because if he does after only 2 years of being in the SoS position, he'd look overly ambitious himself.
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Canis
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2017, 03:00:30 PM »

Kate Brown said Richardson wouldn't run for Governor in 2018, but who knows if he changes his mind. He won because he was running against a bad candidate who was viewed as being too ambitious and just wanted to use the position of SOS as a springboard to a higher position.

I doubt Richardson will run for governor, because if he does after only 2 years of being in the SoS position, he'd look overly ambitious himself.
What about challenging Merkley in 2020?
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2017, 03:16:25 PM »

Kate Brown said Richardson wouldn't run for Governor in 2018, but who knows if he changes his mind. He won because he was running against a bad candidate who was viewed as being too ambitious and just wanted to use the position of SOS as a springboard to a higher position.

I doubt Richardson will run for governor, because if he does after only 2 years of being in the SoS position, he'd look overly ambitious himself.
What about challenging Merkley in 2020?
The only way he runs for senate is if one oregon is a swingstate in 2020 which would mean trump has like 60% approval ratings also on top of that Jeff merkley retires to run for president.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2017, 04:16:16 PM »

Kate Brown said Richardson wouldn't run for Governor in 2018, but who knows if he changes his mind. He won because he was running against a bad candidate who was viewed as being too ambitious and just wanted to use the position of SOS as a springboard to a higher position.

I doubt Richardson will run for governor, because if he does after only 2 years of being in the SoS position, he'd look overly ambitious himself.
What about challenging Merkley in 2020?

He'd get killed and might not even crack 40%, tbh.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2017, 08:17:07 PM »


So a Republican won a state wide race in Oregon Last year how?
Richardson destroyed Avakin will he go for Governor again? or Will he try to take down Merkley or Wyden? I mean he almost beat the governor before kate brown? Also will he win reelection? it shocks me that Richardson was able to do this during a year where trump lost by 11 points in the state

http://www.wweek.com/news/2017/08/23/secretary-of-state-dennis-richardson-i-will-not-run-for-governor-in-2018/

Also - Richardson is going to be 71 years old when his term expires, I don't think he'll be making another statewide run most likely.   He got lucky going against Avakin more than anything.   He's not a "great candidate".
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2017, 11:35:35 PM »

Hmm so a combination of Avakin running a terrible campaign and being a bad candidate (best known for lesbian cakes) and Richardson being a great candidate and running a great campaign. Also are Oregon republicans Socially conservative and Economically moderate?
My dad voted straight D except for Richardson, specifically because of the cake shop.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2017, 04:41:18 PM »

Avakian was a dumpster fire of a candidate, even beyond the cake shop stuff (Bob Ferguson here in WA had a similar case - flower shop - that didn't hurt him at all)
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