Japan Oct 22 2017

[Zuza]

running through three PMs in as many years

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.

[Zuza]

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

Well for her to be PM she will have to be a MP either in the Upper or Lower House.  So in the unlikely event HP plus a bunch of parties including KP and/or some LDP splinter, for Koike to become PM she has to run in a by-election to get in.  Worse, even if a HP MP resigns for Koike to get elected the delay between a MP resigning and by-election might be months leaving politics in a limbo.

I'm curious how many Koike supporters are aware of this and how this affects their voting intentions...

[jaichind]

In 5 districts it will be de facto LDP vs LDP followed by the rule "if you win you are LDP"

In 茨城(Ibaraki) 7th district. A long time LDP rebel has held the seat beating back the official LDP candidate every time.  In 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture politics this LDP rebel is the leader of one of the LDP factions in the prefecture assembly.   This time around this LDP rebel has asked to re-join the LDP.  The LDP decision is still to run its own official candidate with the understanding that if this LDP rebel  wins he will be allowed to join the LDP caucus and accepted as an official member of LDP.

In 埼玉(Saitama) 11th. A long time LDP has held the seat beating back the official LDP candidate every time.  This time this LDP rebel wants to run as LDP.  The LDP decision was for this LDP rebel and the official LDP candidate to both run as independents and the winner will be retroactively nominated by the LDP and be able to join the LDP caucus.

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th district the existing pro-opposition independent who used to be in both DPJ and YP and beat the LDP in 2014 as the common opposition candidate has decided to join LDP and wanted to run as the LDP candidate.  The local LDP branch came up with their own official candidate.  The national LDP decision was to allow the incumbent independent MP to run and if he wins he will be accepted into the LDP caucus.  This one is not as cut and dry as both CDP and HP are in the fray but it seems that the winner will most likely be the official LDP candidate or the now LDP rebel.   
   
In 山梨(Yamanashi) 2nd district the incumbent is an old time LDP rebel that repeatedly beat back the official LDP candidate.  This time the rebel wishes to be re-join LDP.  The LDP decision is for both the official LDP candidate and the incumbent LDP rebel to run as independents and the winner is retroactively nominated by the LDP.   

In 岡山(Okayama) 3rd distinct the long time LDP incumbent is retiring in this LDP stronghold.  His son wants to run to replace his father but a rival faction wants to nominate their own candidate.  The LDP decided for both to run as independents and the winner retroactively nominated by the LDP.

This is why on election day you might see LDP win X seats but the next morning LDP is claimed to have won up to 5+X seats.  That is because up to 5 pro-LDP independents (and at least 3) are going to win and be retroactively nominated by LDP that same night so next morning the LDP seat count goes up.   

[Tintrlvr]

running through three PMs in as many years

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.

It was a real problem from the LDP in 2006-2009 how quickly they were burning through PMs, also, and definitely contributed to their defeat in 2009. Clearly the LDP has performed better during the Koizumi and Abe II years than either party did when PMs were dropping like flies.

But the bar was always higher for the DPJ than it would have been for the LDP because opposition supporters want something better than the LDP while LDP supporters are content to settle for the LDP. Also, the DPJ needed to prove their suitability to govern because they had never governed before; the LDP doesn't have to prove their suitability to govern because they are the party of government; as a result, they get to mess up a lot more and the sort of voters who are willing to settle for the LDP (see above) will stick with the LDP.

[jaichind]

Jiji poll  



Abe approval/disapproval 37.1(-4.7)/48.8(+5.1)

PR vote

LDP  30.7
KP     5.9
JRP    3.1
HP   11.8
CDP   4.4
SDP   1.2
JCP   4.5

[jaichind]

茨城(Ibaraki) PR poll.  茨城(Ibaraki) has a strong LDP lean, especially for a prefecture in the North.  The LDP-KP PR vote is usually 5% above national average
 


LDP     34.5
KP        5.8
JRP       1.7
HP      13.4
CDP     8.4
SDP     0.7
JCP      4.6

[Lachi]

I fell as if pollster make NO attempt to get a response out of most people that isn't 'no party'. I think pollsters should push a bit harder for actual responses.

[jaichind]

With polls indicating that a HP breakthrough seems unlikely this election there is now already talk of the re-creation of DP.  Namely, a lot of the pro-HP, anti-LDP independents, and even some HP winners after the elections that were all from the DP might all just re-join DP.  The idea that even those ex-DP candidates that ran on HP and won really own nothing to Koike since its was DP that funded their campaign.   Some HP winners will not have DP background or joined HP before DP being disbanded.  They will most likely stay with HP.  Another outstanding question would be would this recreated DP then merge with CDP or not.  Most likely not but CDP will have to make a call about weather is future iw with JCP or DP.  So post election we will see the Center-Right opposition of rump HP-JRP-TCJ, Centrist opposition of DP, and Left opposition of CDP-SDP-JCP.

 

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll seems like more bad news for Abe/LDP yet at the same time projections has LDP-KP with a solid win.

Abe Approval/Disapproval 31/53 (way under water)

Party support (not PR)
LDP    32
KP       3
JRP      1
HP     12
DP       2
LP       1
CDP     6
SDP     1
JCP      6



68% certain to vote vs 60% back in 2014.  If turnout rises from 52% to say 60% this time then that is bad news for KP JCP and also LDP.

[Lachi]

So... there will essentially be no point in all of the defections and splits that have happened over the last few weeks?

I never knew there could be such a hopeless, and divided opposition anywhere...

[jaichind]

So... there will essentially be no point in all of the defections and splits that have happened over the last few weeks?

I never knew there could be such a hopeless, and divided opposition anywhere...

Yeah.  At the core of it comes down to should DP seek to ally with Third Pole parties to defeat LDP or ally with JCP to defeat LDP.  In the end we might end up with a 3 way split of a merged HP as a Third Pole force, DP which could go either way depending on the election/district, and CDP that will be allied with JCP.  It gives everyone what they want but leaves LDP with easy wins.

[Cape Verde]

Any chance that conservative former DP-MPs would use HP as a stepping stone to cross over to LDP after the election?

[jaichind]

Any chance that conservative former DP-MPs would use HP as a stepping stone to cross over to LDP after the election?

Unlikely. It is actually pretty hard to defect into LDP.  Only way is if you win your seat and having you join LDP would not cause rebellions within the local LDP branch in said district as to make the ROI to taking you in not worth it.  But MPs which are able to win their seats by a large margin will have no great incentive to join LDP.  There have been a couple cases of this every election cycle but not on a mass basis.  Of course if said MP used to be part of LDP then that might be a different story.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll has Abe approval/disapproval at 43/41 which is better news for Abe.

They did a poll on PR vote but without disclosing the headline result they disclosed some breakdowns.



For those  that approve of Abe (43%) the PR vote is LDP 68 KP 10 HP 10 JRP 5 JCP 2 CDP 5
For those that disapprove of Abe (41) the PR vote is LDP 18 KP 7 HP 26 JRP 4 JCP 14 CDP 27 SDP 1




For those that does not support any party the PR vote is

LDP 32 KP 7 HP 25 JRP 6 JCP 8 CDP 20 SDP 1

LDP-KP doing better than 2012 but worse than 2014 in this group.

All seems to point to LDP-KP winning around 42%-45% of the PR vote given that LDP-KP won in 2012 39.45% and in 2014 46.82%

[jaichind]

New Asahi projections which dialed back the LDP a bit



Taking their medium case

             District      PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          217         69      286             35.5%
KP               8         21        29             12.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              3           9       12               6.5%
HP             24         32        56             18.0%
CDP           11         30       41              17.0%
SDP             1           0         1               1.5%
JCP              1         14       15               8.5%
Ind            24           0       24    most likely something like 4-5 pro-LDP and rest anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

These results seems to imply a surge in turnout that hurts KP JCP but actually helps LDP and CDP.  This assumes that a lot of CDP voters comes out to vote against LDP and a lot of LDP voters comes out to vote against CDP-JCP with KP and JCP getting hurt in the process.

[jaichind]

Abe approval ratings curve still under water and getting slightly worse



Cuve on PR voting intentions since mid Sept show HP getting the DP vote but then lost it to back to CDP which is almost up to where DP was.  LDP stable the whole time

[jaichind]

My current best guess on results. 

LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%). 

I broke the various Center-Left Independents into 4 blocs.
Ind(LP) - 2 of them are ex-LP members, one of them is Ozawa
Ind(HP) - ex-DP members that are running with a JCP against them but no HP candidate.  We can view these candidates as pro-HP
Ind(OPPN) - ex-DP members that are joint opposition candidates with no HP CDP or JCP candidates running against them
Ind(CDP) - ex-DP members that have a HP (or HP backed) candidate running against them so we can see them as pro-CDP


              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          190         63      253             31.9%
KP               9         23        32             12.8%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7         10       17                6.8%
HP             35         37        72              20.9%
CDP           16         25        41              15.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.7%
JCP              1         16       17                9.6%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)      10           0       10     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  12           0       12      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Most media projections have LDP-KP at 305 to 325.  I have them at 285.

In 2013 I got the LDP-KP PR vote share correct whereas the media outfits got it wrong.  But I overestimated DPJ and underestimated JRP, YP, and JCP in the district seats whereas the media outfits got that balance right.

In 2014, I got the LDP-KP PR vote share more correct (underestimate of 1%) than media outfits (overestimate of 3%-4%) but I overestimated DPJ JIP and JCP anti-LDP tactical voting  whereas the media outfits were closer to the mark on that.

In 2016 I got the LDP-KP PR vote share more wrong (underestimate of 4%) than media outfit (underestimate of 1%).  But both underestimated anti-LDP tactical voting which made my district projections more accurate (two wrongs make a right.)

In 2017 It seems for the first time my and the media outfits mostly agree on the LDP-KP PR vote share (I am around 45% and they cluster around 46%) but I estimate greater level of anti-LDP tactical voting than these media outfits.

What this election will come down to now is
1) How will the CDP voter vote in a district where it is LDP vs HP vs JCP?  If they mostly vote for the former ex-DP HP candidate then that would be in-line with my projection.  If some of them go with JCP then it would be inline with the media projections
2) How will the HP voters (most of them until recently are really DP and LP voters) vote in a district where it is LDP vs CDP (or joint opposition candidate)? If they mostly vote for the CDP or joint opposition candidate then that would be in-line with my projection.  If some of them go with LDP them it would be inline with media projections.

The only way the LDP is beaten in district seats are mostly based on some joint opposition efforts.

Out of the 12 pro-HP ex-DP independents, I project 10 of them will win since the will only face LDP with JCP. 
Out of the 21 Joint opposition candidates, I project 12 of them will win since they will take on LDP 1-in-1.   
Same is true for both ex-LP candidates
But out of 8 ex-DP candidates that are running as independents but with a HP candidate running, none of them will win.
Out of 15 CDP candidates running without a HP candidate in the fray, 6 will win according to my projection. 
But out of 48 CDP candidates running with a HP backed candidate in the fray, only 10 will win and 8 of them it is only because the HP candidate is a political novice with no name recognition. 
Out of the 35 HP winners out of 198 candidates according to my projections, only 1 won with a CDP or ex-DP independent in the fray.  All other 34 were won with only a JCP or SDP candidate in the fray where I project the CDP voter will go with HP to stop LDP.

[jaichind]

Jiji projection:  LDP-KP to get around 310 seats.

LDP 150 district easy wins, 55 district ahead, around 68 PR seats.  Total of around 280 seats.
KP 6 district seat easy wins, 3 neck-to-neck, will lose PR seats from 26 it got in 2014
JRP around 14 seats overall.
HP Ahead in 5 district seat, competitive in 50 seats, could be reduced to 2 seats in Tokyo, around 35 PR seats.
CDP Strong in Hokkaido, around 30 PR seats
JCP Will lose seats for sure
SDP gets 2 seats
NPD could get 1 PR seat

We can do guess of what the Jiji PR seats look like along with implied vote share

         Seats   Implied PR vote share
LDP      68               34.5%
KP        22               12.5%
NDP       1                 0.5%
JRP        7                 6.0%
HP       35               20.5%
CDP     30               16.5%
SDP      1                 1.5%
JCP     12                 8.0%

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) poll of PR vote. 

LDP     25.2
KP        4.2
HP        6.4
CDP      9.6
SDP      0.6
JCP       7.2

長野(Nagano) has a historical LDP minus 3-4 lean.  Third pole parties tend to do poorly here and JCP tends to be strong.  In that sense this result makes sense.  Still this seems to imply that HP support is falling.

[jaichind]

Latest Mainichi projection

LDP over 300 by itself
HP at most 54 seats, at most 23 district seats of which 10 are quite competitive
CDP around 40 seats
KP will not keep 35 seats from 2014 for sure, will win 9 district seats
JRP hard to keep 14 seats today, LDP ahead in 8 Osaka seats (out of 19 Osaka seats 4 will go to KP, 1 will most likely go to CDP, 1 will go to pro-CDP independent, so if 8 are LDP so that leaves 5 for JRP)
JCP lose seats from 21 from 2014
SDP most likely 1 seat

[jaichind]

Something funny happen along the way to Koike's HP clean sweep of Tokyo.  First her mostly candidate list of nobodies did not seem to attract LDP-KP voter support unlike in the Tokyo Prefecture elections back in July.  A key part is not getting the KP alliance.  Then there was an unexpected surge of CDP which with the support of JCP in several old DPJ strong areas made them the real alternative to LDP in several seats.  As a result HP is now looking at 2-3 seats while CDP is looking at 2-5 seats with LDP-KP winning the rest.  HP could very well end up third place in Tokyo.    It was Koike hubris that led to this.  If she worked to induct some DP candidates instead of letting them join CDP  she worked to make the HP the sole alternative to LDP.  As it was getting the JRP alliance was worth less than it seems and now she is going to face a humiliating result in Tokyo. 

Likewise in Osaka, HP support seems not to be what it claims as CDP and various pro-CDP independents are emerging as an alternative to LDP and JRP and draw enough anti-LDP votes away from JRP to keep LDP position in Osaka pretty strong. 

If this is the case then looking at the likely HP lineup after the election the entire HP caucus other than perhaps 5-6 MPs will be made up entire of ex-DP candidates that joined after DP dissolved itself.  If these MPs see that it was them and the old DP machine that got them elected and not Koike many might decamp after the election to re-join DP or even CDP or even another new centrist outfit.

[Cape Verde]

Right now, I don't see HP winning more than 4 seats (3rd, 10th, 15th, and 21st) in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

Right now, I don't see HP winning more than 4 seats (3rd, 10th, 15th, and 21st) in Tokyo.

Agreed.  In fact I think Tokyo 3rd is increasing out of reach for HP.  My current projection has HP winning 3 seats in Tokyo (10th 15th and 21st).  Many media projections has LDP winning 15th district leaving HP with 2 seats.

[jaichind]

Election for mayor of 鶴岡市(Tsuruoka) today.




It is a proxy battle for 山形(Yamagata) 3rd district which is dominated by this city.  



Last couple of cycles this district is between two rival LDP factions.  The official LDP is for 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) whose father dominated this district until he was defeated by LDP rebel 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) in 2012.  加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) defeated  阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) in 2014 regaining the seat for her LDP faction.

In 2012 it was

LDP rebel 36.0%
LDP         35.2%
JRP          12.7%
SDP         11.5%
JCP           4.6%

and in 2014 it was

LDP         42.9%
LDP rebel 42.1%
DPJ           8.6%
JCP           5.8%

The incumbent mayor of 鶴岡市(Tsuruoka) is aligned with the 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) LDP faction who won in 2009 and was re-elected in 2013 unopposed.  His opponent this time is aligned with 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) and is seen as an early proxy fight for the battle for 山形(Yamagata) 3rd district.  The result is a very high turnout election (68.3%) and a crushing victory for the opposition candidate aligned with 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) .

pro 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) incumbent     42.6%
pro 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) opposition       57.6%  (backed by DP SDP and JCP)

This time 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) joined HP and will face off with 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) along with the JCP candidate.  All media outfits called this seat an clear win by  加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) but I had this seat down for 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi)  on the premise that most CDP voters will vote tactically for 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi)  to defeat LDP versus going over to the JCP.

This mayor election results seems to indicate that my position has some legs and that 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) is a in a strong position if this proxy election carries over to the election next week.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll

Do you want Abe to be re-elected to be PM.  Yes/No  37/47



Among the 47 that do no want Abe to be re-elected PM the PR vote is

CDP   26
HP     20
LDP   12
JCP    11
KP       5
JRP     5

Overall party support (not PR) are

LDP        29
KP           5
JRP          3
HP           9
CDP       10
SDP         1
JCP          4
No Party 28
 
Among the No Party bloc PR vote are LDP 16 CDP 15 HP 11

It is just interesting that Abe is opposed 37/47 but will cruise to victory if not a landslide.  Party support numbers shows that HP is in trouble.