Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Joint campaign appearance between HP leader and Tokyo Governor Koike, JRP leader and Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) and TCJ (Aichi right wing libertarian DPJ splinter) leader and Nagoya mayor 河村 たかし.

[Famous Mortimer]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

[Lachi]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

Both of the LP diet members left and are running as independents.

[jaichind]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

Both of the LP diet members left and are running as independents.

Correct.  LP pretty much will merge into HP after the election.  It is for the better. Ozawa is always better as a backroom strategist than a front-line leader. 

[jaichind]

National party leader debate.




Seating arrangement similar to the GOP debate format.  Parties that poll higher sits in the middle (in this case it would be LDP HP KP JCP) followed by the rest (JRP CDP SDP PJK)

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like Nariaki Nakayama representing the PJK there. So the PJK merger with Party of Hope is totally off?

[jaichind]

Looks like Nariaki Nakayama representing the PJK there. So the PJK merger with Party of Hope is totally off?

It seems it was never really on.  I thought when PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) defected to HP that it meant that PJK would disband or join HP.  It seems that it will go on alone.  It has no government funding so it must have wealthy donations  that keep it afloat. 

[Famous Mortimer]

When is the final filing deadline?

[jaichind]

When is the final filing deadline?

10/10

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

[Lachi]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

[jaichind]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

Yeah, as a rule one does not want to put too much stock in a poll that is being announced with a cartoon picture with spaceships.

[Famous Mortimer]

There a new Space Battleship Yamato out?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

Yeah, as a rule one does not want to put too much stock in a poll that is being announced with a cartoon picture with spaceships.

On the contrary, I hope it become standard practice in all countries.

[jaichind]

Out of the 289 seats CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP members have consolidated into 1 candidate in 241 of them.  In around 55 of those 241 seats HP is not running either so they become de facto joint opposition candidates to LDP.  In 5 seats this Left bloc are not running and in de facto terms back the HP candidate against LDP.  I think by 10/10 the goal is for CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP independents to from a front in all 289 seat (minus the 5 they leave to HP by themselves.)

[jaichind]

Yomiuri  poll (diff from late Sept when HP was formed with Koike as leader but CDP not formed yet)

Abe approval 41(-2)/46(--)

Have hope for LDP Yes/No 41/43
Have hope for HP Yes/No  36/56
Hope hope for CDP Yes/No 28/64

PR vote

LDP     32 (-2)
KP        6 (-1)
JRP       3 (+1)
HP      13 (-6)
CDP      7 (new)
SDP      1 (--)
JCP       4 (-1)

Looks like CDP gains from everyone but especially HP which last poll pretty much pull in most of the DP vote.

Abe approval numbers a problem for LDP.

[jaichind]

Ex-DP MP 原口 一博(Haraguchi Kazuhiro) of  佐賀(Saga) 1st district ran a good con on everyone.  Back in 2014 he barely won his seat DP 47.5% LDP 46.1% JCP 6.4%.  This time around he first agreed to run on the HP ticket knowing that is the best way to avoid a separate HP or JRP candidate.  Then a couple days before the nomination deadline he then broke with HP to run as an independent even though he indicated that he was leaving on friendly terms.  Then JCP withdrew its candidate as part of, what I am sure was a prior deal between Haraguchi and JCP.  So through various deals he triangulated  to a point where he will face the LDP candidate 1-on-1.

[jaichind]

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

Detailed version of this poll for Tokyo PR are

LDP    28.7%
KP       6.2%
JRP      1.3%
HP     14.7%
CDP   13.5%
SDP     1.6%
JCP    12.7%

Undecided 21.4%.  LDP-KP looks about right.  Poor result for HP and great result for CDP.  JCP also a bit higher than expected.

[Vega]

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

Probably an attempt by her to attract LDP voters, you know, to make the opposition more palatable.

[jaichind]

Projection from 和子夫人(Madam Kazuko) who is famous for being the most accurate forecaster in 2009 but have been more off last few election cycles.  Her forecast has LDP KP and JCP doing poorly must imply she expect a turnout surge that helps HP CDP

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          162         62      224             31.5%
KP               7         23        30             13.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         10        19               7.0%
HP             65         43      108              23.0%
CDP           14         21        35              12.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         15       15                9.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  26           0       26     (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

On PR it feels right to me on a high turnout election although I still think HP and CDP are too high and JCP too low.   Just like other anti-LDP projections this seems to assume a very solid a tactical voting between the HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP blocs at the grassroots level which I find unlikely.

[Slow Learner]

Amazing that the DPJ are engaging in yet *another* harebrained scheme to oust the LDP. This'll work for sure though. Absolutely.

[jaichind]

My current best guess on results.  LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%).  LDP-KP-NPD plus LDP rebels gets 287 out of 465 seats, a solid 10+ seats below 2/3 majority.  Some tactical voting between HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP but not enough to win some key marginal seats.

              District    PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         61      250             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.7%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              8         13       21                8.3%
HP             41         38        79              21.1%
CDP           13         21        34              11.9%
SDP             1           1         2                1.9%
JCP              1         18       19               11.0%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        2           0         2     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(DP)      19           0       19     (ex-DP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[Famous Mortimer]

So I see parties on taking a stance on the "Consumption tax raise". Is this the same consumption tax raise they were discussing 3 elections ago? Have they been putting it off that long? Or is this a new raise and they do it every couple of years?

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.