What would it take to reunite the two Korea's into one unified country?
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  What would it take to reunite the two Korea's into one unified country?
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Author Topic: What would it take to reunite the two Korea's into one unified country?  (Read 1542 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: September 16, 2017, 04:30:42 PM »

Obviously one step would be for China to realize they have nothing to gain by propping up the Kim regime anymore. A huge problem in reunification revolves around 3 critical issues:

1.) what kind of government will it be? Probably the best option in the beginning is to have one unified nation and have two semi-autonomous regions with separate regional governments under one national government and eventually move to a unitary government.

2.) the issue of South Korea having to essentially go bankrupt in bringing the North's infrastructure up to date, it would require heavy amounts of aid in order to do this.

3.) The cultural differences between the North and South would have to be remedied enough to ensure stability in the future United Korea.
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Santander
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 04:46:26 PM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2017, 05:21:04 PM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

Pretty much this, South Korea can't really afford the massive aid required for a quick, full restoration and even that wouldn't bridge the divides. It wouldn't be fair to ruin the robust economy and generally good life of South Koreans with this massive aid, too.
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2017, 06:10:18 PM »

This is one of the saddest things in global politics right now.  I would love to see German-style reunification, but that's just not possible anymore.

As for government, ideally North Korea should be part of the Republic of Korea.  The DPRK only exists because the USSR jumped into the War against Japan at the last minute.  The US and ROC should have been the most influential in the post-war landscape of Asia, as they sacrificed more on that front.  The world would be so much better off today if the Soviets never invaded Manchuria, but I digress.

Realistically a temporary puppet government should be established.  Even a hardcore Capitalist like myself could support government spending on the impoverished North Koreans.  Obviously the wealth disparity won't go away anytime soon.  Fortunately people from all over the world would volunteer to help rebuild the country.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 06:56:51 PM »

PRC will not agree to Korean unification unless US troops pulls out of ROK.  That is the way out in my view.  USA-PRC-Russia deal where US troops pull out of ROK, while PRC-Russian cut of all supplies to DPRK which collapses with ROK taking over.  Both United ROK border with PRC and Russia become de-militarized as part of the deal and then ROK becomes the Switzerland of North Asia.   
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2017, 08:26:42 PM »

Thae Yong-ho, Park Yeonmi, Kim Han Sol, Kyomg Wonha, and Lee Soon-ok, as well as Kim Dok-Hong and Park Sang-hak should be put in charge of the autonomous North Korea. With $100 billion from each of China, Russia, America, Japan, and India, $350 billion from Europe, and $150 billion from Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Taiwan, that would give a trillion dollars to rebuild North Korea, or about ~110 trillion South Korean Won. Not sure if that amount of foreign aid is even remotely realistic under any circumstances, but it would assuredly be close to enough, being ten times the size of the South Korean budget.
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Green Line
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 08:29:55 PM »

What does America gain out of this?
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 10:20:49 PM »

Likely regime change in Pyongyang
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Santander
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 10:28:03 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2017, 10:35:16 PM by Santander »

Thae Yong-ho, Park Yeonmi, Kim Han Sol, Kyomg Wonha, and Lee Soon-ok, as well as Kim Dok-Hong and Park Sang-hak should be put in charge of the autonomous North Korea. With $100 billion from each of China, Russia, America, Japan, and India, $350 billion from Europe, and $150 billion from Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Taiwan, that would give a trillion dollars to rebuild North Korea, or about ~110 trillion South Korean Won. Not sure if that amount of foreign aid is even remotely realistic under any circumstances, but it would assuredly be close to enough, being ten times the size of the South Korean budget.
Even if said countries could afford such insane sums of cash and had the political will to do so (even 5% of that over a decade would be... a stretch), you are talking about a sum of money that could probably solve world hunger for a decade.
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SATW
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 12:42:49 AM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

Pretty much this, South Korea can't really afford the massive aid required for a quick, full restoration and even that wouldn't bridge the divides. It wouldn't be fair to ruin the robust economy and generally good life of South Koreans with this massive aid, too.

These two posts pretty much sum up my views.
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 04:24:24 AM »

Depends on how the reunification comes about: a negotiated settlement with the regime, a pro-ROK coup in DPRK, a catastrophic regime collapse or the result of a military defeat?
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2017, 04:25:44 AM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

A hard border between north and south? You sure about that? If the goal is eventual reunification that would just about be the worst thing you could do.
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 07:14:25 AM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

A hard border between north and south? You sure about that? If the goal is eventual reunification that would just about be the worst thing you could do.

Is it fair for the people of the South to let a massive flood of starving migrants inside their prosperous country, though? The goal should be to slowly recover and rebuild the north until the wall can be broken down, imo.
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 07:50:14 AM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

A hard border between north and south? You sure about that? If the goal is eventual reunification that would just about be the worst thing you could do.

Is it fair for the people of the South to let a massive flood of starving migrants inside their prosperous country, though? The goal should be to slowly recover and rebuild the north until the wall can be broken down, imo.

Not remotely the same hypothetical as a "hard border" lasting 50 plus years. If that's put in place, the two koreas will further drift apart, much like the process of speciation in evolution. And maybe that would be the best thing, but for this thread we are discussing how we can merge the two societies.

And to be honest, here German reunification is kind of irrelevant. We don't know much about North Korea, but I'm willing to bet education is not remotely as universal or competent; that the people are far more beaten down and wary and that there will be much less continuation of government (i.e. While the old East German bureaucracy was able to slide into the new Germany with relative ease, people will be much less willing to let Juche figures off the hook).

What would probably happen is a SEZ will be placed over the whole of North Korea, allowing ROK companies to invest in the minerals, profitable industry and farms of the North. There would have to be a lot of assessment of what skills, if any North Koreans have - and the consequence of an SEZ plus decollectivised farms unfortunately means there will be a lot of surplus labour that will be exploited. At this stage, a good source of economic rejuvenation (assuming that there isn't unlimited amount for stimulus) would be from remittences, so the transotionary DPRK government (presumably military, with elections promised in near future) would make arrangements with ROK (as well as PRC and other countries) to use surplus labour in their own SEZ's. At thus stage, there would probably be similar mechanisms the EU has when it assesses new countries to join - the DPRK government would have to implement them. And yeah, eventually the visa restrictions would have to be gradually limited over time.

There would be a lot of odd business - how strict should the subsequent dejuchification process be (I.e. Is it worth maintaining the DpRK bureaucracy, or should they start from scratch a la post-Hussein Iraq)? How to prevent the new economy degenerating into criminal gangs and the naive population investing all their  new wealth into Ponzi schemes (which is the 90's experience of the most backward Eastern Europeam communist regime, Albania)? What will PRC and America do in the background? How to culturally merge the two dispute populations?
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Santander
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 08:16:18 AM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

A hard border between north and south? You sure about that? If the goal is eventual reunification that would just about be the worst thing you could do.

I wasn't suggesting that the border be sealed for 50 years. That would carry a social cost that would be untenable, not to mention expensive to enforce. There would need to be strict border controls though, gradually loosened over a period of time which I cannot see being shorter than 50 years.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2017, 04:53:25 PM »

Thae Yong-ho, Park Yeonmi, Kim Han Sol, Kyomg Wonha, and Lee Soon-ok, as well as Kim Dok-Hong and Park Sang-hak should be put in charge of the autonomous North Korea. With $100 billion from each of China, Russia, America, Japan, and India, $350 billion from Europe, and $150 billion from Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Taiwan, that would give a trillion dollars to rebuild North Korea, or about ~110 trillion South Korean Won. Not sure if that amount of foreign aid is even remotely realistic under any circumstances, but it would assuredly be close to enough, being ten times the size of the South Korean budget.
Even if said countries could afford such insane sums of cash and had the political will to do so (even 5% of that over a decade would be... a stretch), you are talking about a sum of money that could probably solve world hunger for a decade.

Hang on - you do understand just how much money it would take to modernize North Korea, correct? Technologically, medically, employment, etc., etc.
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Santander
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2017, 04:56:25 PM »

Thae Yong-ho, Park Yeonmi, Kim Han Sol, Kyomg Wonha, and Lee Soon-ok, as well as Kim Dok-Hong and Park Sang-hak should be put in charge of the autonomous North Korea. With $100 billion from each of China, Russia, America, Japan, and India, $350 billion from Europe, and $150 billion from Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Taiwan, that would give a trillion dollars to rebuild North Korea, or about ~110 trillion South Korean Won. Not sure if that amount of foreign aid is even remotely realistic under any circumstances, but it would assuredly be close to enough, being ten times the size of the South Korean budget.
Even if said countries could afford such insane sums of cash and had the political will to do so (even 5% of that over a decade would be... a stretch), you are talking about a sum of money that could probably solve world hunger for a decade.

Hang on - you do understand just how much money it would take to modernize North Korea, correct? Technologically, medically, employment, etc., etc.

That has literally nothing to do with my post.
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2017, 06:08:42 PM »

North Korea is such a stunted state that any unification could only happen with a 50+ year military occupation of the North and a hard border between North and South. The Chinese and Russian borders would probably need to be militarized, too. It would be an unfortunate situation where one side would be second-class citizens, and they would face discrimination from Southerners for centuries, but there's no other way, and it would still be a vast improvement over their current situation.

A hard border between north and south? You sure about that? If the goal is eventual reunification that would just about be the worst thing you could do.

Is it fair for the people of the South to let a massive flood of starving migrants inside their prosperous country, though? The goal should be to slowly recover and rebuild the north until the wall can be broken down, imo.

Not remotely the same hypothetical as a "hard border" lasting 50 plus years. If that's put in place, the two koreas will further drift apart, much like the process of speciation in evolution. And maybe that would be the best thing, but for this thread we are discussing how we can merge the two societies.

And to be honest, here German reunification is kind of irrelevant. We don't know much about North Korea, but I'm willing to bet education is not remotely as universal or competent; that the people are far more beaten down and wary and that there will be much less continuation of government (i.e. While the old East German bureaucracy was able to slide into the new Germany with relative ease, people will be much less willing to let Juche figures off the hook).

What would probably happen is a SEZ will be placed over the whole of North Korea, allowing ROK companies to invest in the minerals, profitable industry and farms of the North. There would have to be a lot of assessment of what skills, if any North Koreans have - and the consequence of an SEZ plus decollectivised farms unfortunately means there will be a lot of surplus labour that will be exploited. At this stage, a good source of economic rejuvenation (assuming that there isn't unlimited amount for stimulus) would be from remittences, so the transotionary DPRK government (presumably military, with elections promised in near future) would make arrangements with ROK (as well as PRC and other countries) to use surplus labour in their own SEZ's. At thus stage, there would probably be similar mechanisms the EU has when it assesses new countries to join - the DPRK government would have to implement them. And yeah, eventually the visa restrictions would have to be gradually limited over time.

There would be a lot of odd business - how strict should the subsequent dejuchification process be (I.e. Is it worth maintaining the DpRK bureaucracy, or should they start from scratch a la post-Hussein Iraq)? How to prevent the new economy degenerating into criminal gangs and the naive population investing all their  new wealth into Ponzi schemes (which is the 90's experience of the most backward Eastern Europeam communist regime, Albania)? What will PRC and America do in the background? How to culturally merge the two dispute populations?

I agree, as Santander said in the next post, that it shouldn't be a completely sealed and hard border. And I agree with what you assess are the likeliest ways to help the North Korean economy. But yes, there should be a strict border security at first to prevent a catastrophic migration. Only when North Korea ceases to be a tragic disaster can the reunification really happen (and hence, as I said, the metaphorical wall brought down), and that would be after a long process, because it is, indeed, incomparable to Germany.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2017, 09:50:42 PM »

Korea will be unified as soon as the DPRK falls. Yeah, you'll almost certainly see border controls and some sort of dependent system under the south, but I'm not quite convinced it would be the economic disaster many people expect it would be for the ROK. The chaebols such as Samsung would control a huge captive market of cheap, educated labour which would if anything be a shot in the arm to the South Korean economy if managed sensitively.
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