Trump re-election prospects

[American2020]

Trump's re-election prospects seem good according to the following articles.

https://www.vogue.com/article/democrats-trump-election-2018-2020

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/teflon-trump-democrats-messaging-242607


Discuss.

[TheSaint250]

If he can make it to 2020, he'll be at a greater chance of losing than winning.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't think that the Democrats know what to do with Trump, but their attacks are amazingly unimaginative.

One thing that isn't working is the constant Democratic tut-tutting over Trump's "behavior".  Yes, he's offensive, but most Americans are more offended by constantly being told what they can and can't say.  Yes, folks should have a filter, but political correctness has, in the opinion of many, gotten way out of hand.  Hillary's lecturing of Trump on his treatment of women, etc., became unproductive overkill.  That's because Trump still gets passes for being a celebrity.  That may not be so true as time goes by, but the more Trump's enemies treat him as a "celebrity" and a "reality TV star", their attacks on his personal behaviors will have diminished effectiveness.   

[mileslunn]

I give him about a 30% chance of being re-elected.  While many will say he has been an unmitigated disaster, he has a strong motivated base who are staying with him and should show up.  Also it's the electoral college not popular vote that matters and the Democrats seem to be running up the margins in the large liberal coastal states.  That being said I think the Democrats will avoid making the mistake of thinking many of the Rust Belt states are in the bag and will go after them a lot harder.  Also a lot depends too on whom they choose as they need someone who can excite their base as the Democrat base is slightly larger than the GOP one, but are less likely to show up.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Pointing out that far-left policies aren't an automatic route to victory might bring the idiots out in force here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I still fail to see how a less than 40% approval rating allows you to win reelection?

[Sumner 1868]

I don't think that the Democrats know what to do with Trump, but their attacks are amazingly unimaginative.

One thing that isn't working is the constant Democratic tut-tutting over Trump's "behavior".  Yes, he's offensive, but most Americans are more offended by constantly being told what they can and can't say.  Yes, folks should have a filter, but political correctness has, in the opinion of many, gotten way out of hand.  Hillary's lecturing of Trump on his treatment of women, etc., became unproductive overkill.  That's because Trump still gets passes for being a celebrity.  That may not be so true as time goes by, but the more Trump's enemies treat him as a "celebrity" and a "reality TV star", their attacks on his personal behaviors will have diminished effectiveness.   

Does anyone actually think that too much political correctness is a real issue.

The right won't stop talking about it so yes.

[BoAtlantis]

I stand by my assertion that Trump to his base, particularly rural ones, is a symbol of anti-left. His behavior isn't virtuous but he emboldens white identity. If he gets anything done, it's a bonus, but he doesn't need to accomplish anything. Extremists at Berkeley and media's daily slingshots at him are sufficient reasons for them to re-elect him.

Using approval rating as evidence to predict doomsday for him is fatal and nothing more than intellectual laziness for Democrats.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

All still depends on the 2020 Democratic nominee, and the presence/lack thereof of a Conservative/Moderate running an independent ticket.

If the Dems nominate another Clinton Corporate Establishment Democrat, our chances of winning sink.

If a Conservative/Moderate runs an independent ticket, it hurts Trump.

As of right now, I still have Trump losing, though.

[pbrower2a]

Take a look at this!

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

.....................

This is a big hole to dig out of. This is consistent with having nationwide disapproval ratings between 56% and 61%.

If he concedes  something to Democrats, then he will still be remembered for the border wall and his other initial policies. Playing to the base? Challenging an incumbent, both Goldwater and McGovern did that well. That obviously was not enough.

I concede that he could do better than these disapproval ratings suggest. I see nothing in Florida after Hurricane Irma.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

The same people who say he can't get re-elected were the same people saying he wouldn't run, wouldn't make it to a GOP debate, wouldn't make it to Iowa, wouldn't win a state caucus/primary, had no path to 1,237 delegates, had no path to 270 electoral votes, etc. etc.

Trump keeps getting underestimated and keeps winning. I, as a Trump supporter since day 1, enjoy it.

Keep it coming :-).

[pbrower2a]

The same people who say he can't get re-elected were the same people saying he wouldn't run, wouldn't make it to a GOP debate, wouldn't make it to Iowa, wouldn't win a state caucus/primary, had no path to 1,237 delegates, had no path to 270 electoral votes, etc. etc.

Trump keeps getting underestimated and keeps winning. I, as a Trump supporter since day 1, enjoy it.

Keep it coming :-).

True on most counts. But we have even more evidence of the corruption, incompetence, incoherence, and elitism of this President. His appeal to the great unwashed masses was his vulgarity. I'm not saying that the President needs to have concerts of Haydn string quartets to show his taste, but what good has vulgarity done except to sell schlock to people?

I see patterns of failure in this President, one of which is the low approval ratings and high level of disapproval.   

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

True on most counts. But we have even more evidence of the corruption, incompetence, incoherence, and elitism of this President. His appeal to the great unwashed masses was his vulgarity. I'm not saying that the President needs to have concerts of Haydn string quartets to show his taste, but what good has vulgarity done except to sell schlock to people?

I see patterns of failure in this President, one of which is the low approval ratings and high level of disapproval.   

Incompetence, sure. Corruption? No.

Elitism? How is he an elitist?

If anything I feel he's being too soft.

All the arguments you're making were made in 2016.

[henster]

True on most counts. But we have even more evidence of the corruption, incompetence, incoherence, and elitism of this President. His appeal to the great unwashed masses was his vulgarity. I'm not saying that the President needs to have concerts of Haydn string quartets to show his taste, but what good has vulgarity done except to sell schlock to people?

I see patterns of failure in this President, one of which is the low approval ratings and high level of disapproval.   

Incompetence, sure. Corruption? No.

Elitism? How is he an elitist?

If anything I feel he's being too soft.

All the arguments you're making were made in 2016.

Are you serious the guy literally lived out of a penthouse in Manhatten most of his life not to mention a place he literally calls the 'Winter Palace' among his many other homes.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Are you serious the guy literally lived out of a penthouse in Manhatten most of his life not to mention a place he literally calls the 'Winter Palace' among his many other homes.

Doesn't make him an elitist. If anything, he was known to not be a part of the Manhattan rich man scene and was more known for being among the common people. It's one of the reasons he was able to connect to the midwest/South so easily despite being a Manhattan billionaire.

Did Trump have any billionaire supporters? I know there was Carl Icahn. Cuban semi-supported him for a bit. Woody Johnson?

[Mr. Smith]

Are you serious the guy literally lived out of a penthouse in Manhatten most of his life not to mention a place he literally calls the 'Winter Palace' among his many other homes.

Doesn't make him an elitist. If anything, he was known to not be a part of the Manhattan rich man scene and was more known for being among the common people. It's one of the reasons he was able to connect to the midwest/South so easily despite being a Manhattan billionaire.

Did Trump have any billionaire supporters? I know there was Carl Icahn. Cuban semi-supported him for a bit. Woody Johnson?

Yes! Yes it does.

Also, conmen always have the ability to connect.

As for billionaire supports. Gee how 'bout Rebekah F*&(ing MERCER.

[Fuzzy Bear]

True on most counts. But we have even more evidence of the corruption, incompetence, incoherence, and elitism of this President. His appeal to the great unwashed masses was his vulgarity. I'm not saying that the President needs to have concerts of Haydn string quartets to show his taste, but what good has vulgarity done except to sell schlock to people?

I see patterns of failure in this President, one of which is the low approval ratings and high level of disapproval.   

Incompetence, sure. Corruption? No.

Elitism? How is he an elitist?

If anything I feel he's being too soft.

All the arguments you're making were made in 2016.

Are you serious the guy literally lived out of a penthouse in Manhatten most of his life not to mention a place he literally calls the 'Winter Palace' among his many other homes.

"Elitism" is not living higher on the hog than the next person; it's the idea that by virtue of wealth, education, position, etc, you have the right to pronounce judgments on the lifestyle of others and govern with those judgments in mind.  This is what people resent; the idea that remote folks somehow have the right to pass judgment on their way of life and supply "corrections". 

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Yes! Yes it does.

Also, conmen always have the ability to connect.

As for billionaire supports. Gee how 'bout Rebekah F*&(ing MERCER.

Here is a video of Trump in 1988 talking about how he gets along with normal people far better than rich people: https://youtu.be/Usb0iE5WiZI?t=70s

Trump is well known in New York City for not being a part of the "rich Manhattan bubble."

You must be mixing Trump up with someone like Clinton or Romney.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yes! Yes it does.

Also, conmen always have the ability to connect.

As for billionaire supports. Gee how 'bout Rebekah F*&(ing MERCER.

Here is a video of Trump in 1988 talking about how he gets along with normal people far better than rich people: https://youtu.be/Usb0iE5WiZI?t=70s

Trump is well known in New York City for not being a part of the "rich Manhattan bubble."

You must be mixing Trump up with someone like Clinton or Romney.

BILL Clinton has always had the common touch; HILLARY Clinton does not.

Romney is a decent enough man, but he oozes elitism and can't shake it.  He can only win when elitism is what the public demands.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

BILL Clinton has always had the common touch; HILLARY Clinton does not.

Romney is a decent enough man, but he oozes elitism and can't shake it.  He can only win when elitism is what the public demands.

When Bill spoke, it looked like he was speaking to you and emphasizing with you. Same with Obama. Hillary on the other hand was way too robotic. Clinton and Romney also made the number 1 bad thing to do as a candidate - insult the voters (though Obama kind of did this too, he was able to brush it off because it happened in the primaries).

I noticed that Romney ran away from his wealth a lot in 2012. Hell, the question that led to his 47% comment was "Why don't you talk more about your wealth?"

I wonder if Romney embraced his wealth more in 2012 if those attacks would have been so effective against him. Trump fully embraced his wealth (even bragging about it on the debate stage) and the Democrats knew those attacks would be ineffective (which is why I think LD Smith is getting confused with Trump vs. Romney).

I think he was too nervous about Occupy Wall Street and made a huge tactical mistake. Those attacks were extremely effective in 2012 and not only did Romney not fight against those attacks, he allowed them to define him.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

and who wouldn't rent to blacks

Welcome to New York City lol.

[Dr. Arch]

and who wouldn't rent to blacks

Welcome to New York City lol.

That's your rebuttal? To shift his individual responsibility to a stereotyped city meme? Weak.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

and who wouldn't rent to blacks

Welcome to New York City lol.

That's your rebuttal? To shift his individual responsibility to a stereotyped city meme? Weak.

It's New York City - not exactly the bastion of racial equality unfortunately. It's a massive problem and it's not just Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

and who wouldn't rent to blacks

Welcome to New York City lol.

That's your rebuttal? To shift his individual responsibility to a stereotyped city meme? Weak.

It's New York City - not exactly the bastion of racial equality unfortunately. It's a massive problem and it's not just Trump.

Sure, but he was one of those people at the top making it so.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Sure, but he was one of those people at the top making it so.

I don't think so, it just seems to be a problem with that city/area. Every race was so segregated when I went there not even L.A. was that bad. Like one area was 90% black, another was 90% Dominican, then 90% Chinese, then another was 90% white, etc. etc. All groups were monoracial, etc. etc.

Trump is all about helping the common people. He didn't have to run for President. Trump's policies will help EVERYONE. Trade deals for example benefit the rich and Trump wants them to benefit the middle class.