Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

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In fact, it is exactly ridings like these that have seen the biggest swings to the NDP.  

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I don't think the NDP will do well in Mississauga either.  But the Liberals aren't strong enough to win anything on their own either and unite the anti-PC vote behind them.  If the PCs get 40-45% of the vote in most Mississauga ridings (which seems likely), neither the NDP or Liberals will be strong enough to beat them.  Malton seems to be the only place the NDP can win if things go well and for more Mississauga seats they'd be well into majority territory.
 
Re: Woodbridge, it's not a "Ford-skeptic" riding at all (quite the opposite!) Let's say that right now that just based on the horse race it goes 50-30-15 between the PCs, Liberals and NDP.  Does Del Duca really get at least an additional 10% (that is beyond the 30% who aren't sticking to the Liberals) because people of his personal popularity or they think he might be the leader of the party that they're turfing?  Also, if people are thinking about the "political game" when voting - consider that Vaughan likes having Cabinet representation (Fantino, Sorbara).  They're more likely to get that with the PCs than by voting for Del Duca and his "loser" party.

Orleans - I can see a "respectable second" for the Liberals and dominance of the anti-PC vote, but unlikely enough to win.

[PeteB]

And we have the first candidate for the new Liberal Leader - David Henderson, the Mayor of Brockville and the Liberal candidate in Leeds Granville:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-will-stand-for-ontario-liberal-leader-david-henderson

Not sure if this comes under news or election-related lighter fare though.

[King of Kensington]

And we have the first candidate for the new Liberal Leader - David Henderson, the Mayor of Brockville and the Liberal candidate in Leeds Granville:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-will-stand-for-ontario-liberal-leader-david-henderson

Not sure if this comes under news or election-related lighter fare though.

Well that changes the game in Leeds-Grenville - NOT! 

[PeteB]

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

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In fact, it is exactly ridings like these that have seen the biggest swings to the NDP.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think the NDP will do well in Mississauga either.  But the Liberals aren't strong enough to win anything on their own either and unite the anti-PC vote behind them.  If the PCs get 40-45% of the vote in most Mississauga ridings (which seems likely), neither the NDP or Liberals will be strong enough to beat them.  Malton seems to be the only place the NDP can win if things go well and for more Mississauga seats they'd be in majority either.

Re: Woodbridge, it's not a "Ford-skeptic" riding at all (quite the opposite!) Let's say that right now that just based on the horse race it goes 50-30-15 between the PCs, Liberals and NDP.  Does Del Duca really get at least an additional 10% (that is beyond the 30% who aren't sticking to the Liberals) because people of his personal popularity or they think he might be the leader of the party that they're turfing?  Also, if people are thinking about the "political game" when voting - consider that Vaughan likes having Cabinet representation (Fantino, Sorbara).  They're more likely to get that with the PCs than by voting for Del Duca and his "loser" party.

Red - I don't dispute the swings to the NDP in those ridings (probably even more than the 15% you suggested).  However, with 25-40% Liberal majorities in the last election, virtually no PC threat, and a generally more benign attitude towards the Liberals, I am betting the Liberals will manage to hold on in some.  Especially now that they know Wynne will be gone.

Green - If the NDP vote is not there (which we agree on) how are the Liberals not able to pick up the ABF vote?  I agree that it may not be enough and PC may still win, but they do have a shot.

Blue - I know we disagree on Del Duca, and you may yet be proven right .  However the argument that Vaughan would vote for a rookie PC MPP, in the hope that he would make cabinet is a weak one, when you have several PC incumbents, and better known candidates (Elliott) in the York/Simcoe region, who will all probably win, and be in line for cabinet.  On the other hand, with MPP Del Duca, they likely get a new Liberal leader and, if there is a minority situation, a key advocate for Vaughan, with the NDP minority government!

[Bacon King]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

[PeteB]

And we have the first candidate for the new Liberal Leader - David Henderson, the Mayor of Brockville and the Liberal candidate in Leeds Granville:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-will-stand-for-ontario-liberal-leader-david-henderson

Not sure if this comes under news or election-related lighter fare though.

Well that changes the game in Leeds-Grenville - NOT! 

Why - he only has a 37% deficit to make up - should be a piece of cake with the Liberals vote tanking - lol!

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following this election closely for a while but I haven't posted in this thread yet so I'm doing so now. Very excited to see the upcoming double-digit NDP victory!

Then you are unfortunatly probably going to be disappointed. Most of the data is pointed to a PC win - barring a secret NDP surge or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Someone in the PC war room ought to kidnap Ford and lock him up in a nice cottage somewhere until election day just in case.

[lilTommy]

or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Someone in the PC war room ought to kidnap Ford and lock him up in a nice cottage somewhere until election day just in case.

I believe that is what they are trying to do... I heard Ford had one stop, and he also ducked out of talking to anyone in Woodbridge today.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Remember back in 2016 when Liberals said that there would be a silent anti Trump vote? People across the country were supposed to see Trump as a threat to basic decency and civility in the voting booth. I hope left wingers aren't hoping for the same in Ontario.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember back in 2016 when Liberals said that there would be a silent anti Trump vote? People across the country were supposed to see Trump as a threat to basic decency and civility in the voting booth. I hope left wingers aren't hoping for the same in Ontario.

There are two things that right now, parring a poll shift  (which with polling herding now, isn't coming to the public eye) or a PC screwup, seem to be the hopes of the NDP right now. One is that the small lead in some polls they have isn't nixed by geographic disadvantage, or that a secret surge pushes them over the line. This, like you said, isn't something to bet the horse on.

The other is hoping that Wynne's speech moves move voters from the LIBs to the NDP, giving the NDP advantage. I don't really buy this, I think a concession and early LIb leadership bickering is going to produce different results in different seats. In some known PC-NDP battlegrounds, it probably shifts voters to those two parties, but in other more upscale Lib seats in pulls some voters back from both parties. In this way, I suspect the results might be a wash, with the number still at 18%, but a different 18% then before the concession speech.

[King of Kensington]

Blue - I know we disagree on Del Duca, and you may yet be proven right .  However the argument that Vaughan would vote for a rookie PC MPP, in the hope that he would make cabinet is a weak one, when you have several PC incumbents, and better known candidates (Elliott) in the York/Simcoe region, who will all probably win, and be in line for cabinet.  On the other hand, with MPP Del Duca, they likely get a new Liberal leader and, if there is a minority situation, a key advocate for Vaughan, with the NDP minority government!

I'm not saying Vaughan will have a Cabinet representation, nor do I think that's a primary issue for most voters.  But the idea that "might be the next Liberal leader" will change the outcome when the PCs are so far ahead in York Region strikes me as a much greater flight of fancy.  The "might be next Liberal leader" or "keep the government to a minority" vote will be in the 25-35% of the electorate that is already voting Liberal in the first place regardless of who the candidate is, and not in the next 10% or so needed to carry the Liberal over the top.

I'm pretty confident in my prediction but...I realize how foolish I will look if that stays Liberal.  It'll be a big victory for Del Duca and the seat projectors!  It'll also be a  relief to me - since I don't want a PC government - if he plays a role in stopping that.  

So prove me wrong, Steven!

[King of Kensington]

I believe that is what they are trying to do... I heard Ford had one stop, and he also ducked out of talking to anyone in Woodbridge today.

Must be the very hostile reception Ford is receiving in the Italian community.

[Krago]

Hatman, can you confirm or deny?

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/leaked-ontario-election-poll-shows-ontarians-ranked-dead-last/

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, can you confirm or deny?

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/leaked-ontario-election-poll-shows-ontarians-ranked-dead-last/

Fake news!

[ON Progressive]

Hatman, can you confirm or deny?

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/leaked-ontario-election-poll-shows-ontarians-ranked-dead-last/

Fake news!

The Beaverton publishing fake news? That would never happen!

[PeteB]

Margaret Wente in the Globe, on the choices Ontario faces:

"..On the whole, we Ontarians are not highly ideological people. All we want is a pair of reasonably safe hands on the wheel. And what’s on offer is a couple of folks (i.e. Ford and Horwath) who you wouldn’t trust to drive a golf cart..."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-fiscal-conservatives-are-struggling-between-options-this-ontario/

[MaxQue]

Margaret Wente in the Globe, on the choices Ontario faces:

"..On the whole, we Ontarians are not highly ideological people. All we want is a pair of reasonably safe hands on the wheel. And what’s on offer is a couple of folks (i.e. Ford and Horwath) who you wouldn’t trust to drive a golf cart..."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-fiscal-conservatives-are-struggling-between-options-this-ontario/

Ford is probably too moderate for that horrible plagiarist woman.

[King of Kensington]

Who can you trust to drive the golf cart is just the outlook you'd expect from Margaret Wente.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/NewsguyNick/status/1003728058954797056?s=20

Good turnout at advance polling this election.

[King of Kensington]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

[PeteB]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

What a mess....

[ON Progressive]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Of course

[mgop]

Margaret Wente in the Globe, on the choices Ontario faces:

"..On the whole, we Ontarians are not highly ideological people. All we want is a pair of reasonably safe hands on the wheel. And what’s on offer is a couple of folks (i.e. Ford and Horwath) who you wouldn’t trust to drive a golf cart..."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-fiscal-conservatives-are-struggling-between-options-this-ontario/

and wynne can drive golf cart lol thank god the liberals are done

[jaichind]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Wow.  I wonder if they timed this on purpose to be right before the election.  I guess the answer must be yes.