Ontario 2018 election

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a chance the PCs could get a majority, but the NDP take the riding Ford is running in?

Probably under a uniform swing situation the NDP could take the seat. But when factoring star power - something that exists in every election, there is no real chance I believe of this situation.

I don't have anything to add on Wynnes tactics, everyone has kinda already stated how they reek of desperation, my opinion.

[PeteB]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

[King of Kensington]

Politically influential, well out of proportion to their population? Check. Outer burb area? Also check. Very similar to these areas of Toronto. Toronto, of course is 5 million people, which is more than our entire province.

It would be the same as if these regions in Toronto were 300k people and not 150.

Your argument seems to be "Vancouver does too have rich people and rich neighborhoods!"

You seem to misunderstand what I mean in terms of "politically influential."  I don't mean that a lot of "movers and shakers" don't live on the North Shore.  They obviously do.  But in terms of the vote - no, North Shore ridings don't represent a serious impdiment to the NDP winning province-wide.

I already mentioned York Region which has about 1 million people.  It's not "elite" in a St. Paul's kind of way.  It's filled with "new money" real estate developers, immigrant entrepreneurs, consultants, orthodontists, middle management types and so on, not "high society", lawyers, professors, "opinion leaders" in the media and the like. 

The difference again - is not the lack of rich people.  It's more the second-tier outer suburbs that make the difference.

[King of Kensington]

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Yeah, I was thinking that too.  It sounded more like a pitch to the voters of Don Valley West than to the voters of Ontario in general.

[King of Kensington]

I think Etobicoke Lakeshore and Willowdale may show more promise to the NDP right now than Huron-Bruce and Bay of Quinte.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

Except most people that are voting liberal probably are part of the ~24% of Ontario voters that approve of Wynne so it’s not like they think the OLP should be punished. It’s also unlikely that many people that disapprove of Wynne are suddenly going to change how they would vote based on a Wynne concession. Wynne should have just defended her record and gone after the ~24% of voters who approve of her.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Etobicoke Lakeshore and Willowdale may show more promise to the NDP right now than Huron-Bruce and Bay of Quinte.

Agreed. I would add those two ridings to my list of potential NDP seats needed to win to get a majority.

[PeteB]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

Except most people that are voting liberal probably are part of the ~24% of Ontario voters that approve of Wynne so it’s not like they think the OLP should be punished. It’s also unlikely that many people that disapprove of Wynne are suddenly going to change how they would vote based on a Wynne concession. Wynne should have just defended her record and gone after the ~24% of voters who approve of her.

Maybe. But what she is trying to do here is to go after the 15%+ of those who used to vote Liberal but were not going to until today. Different strategy - we'll see if it works.

[King of Kensington]

It's pretty clear that the biggest swing to the NDP seems to be coming from major cities and from highly educated and "culturally liberal" voters - the weak spot in the NDP vote last time.  

[King of Kensington]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

[PeteB]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

Agreed. Many PC politicos saw that with Ford they would win more seats. The logic is that rural seats which vote PC would stay loyal one way or the other. With Ford they would find it difficult to win seats like DVW but they could instead win seats in Etobicoke and Scarborough. Unless Liberal voters return after Wynne's concession, I would also add several Brampton and Mississauga seats to the list.

I just drove down from central Ontario and it's a sea of blue, wherever you look. In most places it looks almost like Japan when the LDP was getting 80% of the vote. Granted, this is PC country, but I don't remember such a one-sided look.

[King of Kensington]

The next NDP caucus will be a lot less rural and a lot less Italian than Rae's caucus was.

[Pericles]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

I disagree, it's pretty clear that Elliott would have been a stronger leader than Ford. Ford's personal ratings are almost as bad as Wynne's, so he's clearly been a drag on the PCs. The PCs were over 40% in the polls before the Brown allegations, and since Ford became leader they've gone from nearly 45% to just over 35%. As has been pointed out previously, Doug doesn't even have Rob Ford's charisma. And Elliott would have maintained the People's Guarantee(except for the carbon tax) and wouldn't have had the whole lack of a costed platform fiasco.

Furthermore, this assumes that the NDP would have been able to consolidate the left as effectively. Elliott is less of a motivator for strategic voting than Ford is-and the NDP may have struggled to consolidate the left. And Elliott also would have gotten more of the 'change' vote-Horwath's whole attack on choosing between 'bad and worse' may have been less effective when it's not Doug Ford vs Kathleen Wynne.

The PCs should have this election in the bag. When Wynne and the Liberals are so unpopular, they're the logical alternative. Horwath has run a strong campaign but the NDP has been aided a lot by the other two unpopular parties, which also makes their negatives much less significant. Ford's bad campaign is why the NDP is competitive with them for that change vote, and if the PCs lose they'll have only themselves to blame.

[PeteB]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

I disagree, it's pretty clear that Elliott would have been a stronger leader than Ford. Ford's personal ratings are almost as bad as Wynne's, so he's clearly been a drag on the PCs. The PCs were over 40% in the polls before the Brown allegations, and since Ford became leader they've gone from nearly 45% to just over 35%. As has been pointed out previously, Doug doesn't even have Rob Ford's charisma. And Elliott would have maintained the People's Guarantee(except for the carbon tax) and wouldn't have had the whole lack of a costed platform fiasco.

Furthermore, this assumes that the NDP would have been able to consolidate the left as effectively. Elliott is less of a motivator for strategic voting than Ford is-and the NDP may have struggled to consolidate the left. And Elliott also would have gotten more of the 'change' vote-Horwath's whole attack on choosing between 'bad and worse' may have been less effective when it's not Doug Ford vs Kathleen Wynne.

The PCs should have this election in the bag. When Wynne and the Liberals are so unpopular, they're the logical alternative. Horwath has run a strong campaign but the NDP has been aided a lot by the other two unpopular parties, which also makes their negatives much less significant. Ford's bad campaign is why the NDP is competitive with them for that change vote, and if the PCs lose they'll have only themselves to blame.

I think you are missing two important  points:

1. Ford's personal negatives hide lots of shy voters who say he's a jerk and then vote for him. If he is winning low income ridings in Toronto, where PC never had a chance, then it is him bringing in that vote. Elliott may have won the Don Valley seats and Willowdale but they would have been at 4-5 seats. With Ford, 10-12 Toronto seats are possible.

2. I agree that Ford is responsible for the NDP being competitive. But let's see what would have happened if the PC was being led by Elliott. The NDP would stand no chance (too extreme) and the voters would grudgingly support the Liberals. That in fact was Wynne's planned strategy against Brown. For all we know, that may have put a stop to the PC, which the NDP unfortunately cannot do.

[136or142]

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

Snarky Youtube videos aside, the data says otherwise.

The GTA has huge sinkholes like York Region (an area of 1 million people where the NDP has no shot of winning a seat whatsoever) and Halton Region (another 500,000, same thing).  Significant parts of Mississauga too.

Van doesn't have anything like these high income outer suburbs with that kind of demographic and politcal influence.

The NDP holds the majority (18/33) of suburban Metro Vancouver) seats.  Even if the NDP got Horgan's share in Ontario I can't see the NDP getting close to half of the 905 seats.

It's not exactly clear where Van's outer suburbs begins - but I'd be inclined to exclude Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond (transit Zone 1).  But even a majority of the next zone suburbs are NDP-held: 6 out of 9 provincial ridings in Surrey, 3 out of 4 Tri-Cities, a seat in Delta, both seats in the Maple Ridge area etc.

In defense of my 'snarky youtube video' reply, if you check your initial post, you'll see that you just mentioned 'suburbs' and not 'outer suburbs.'

I was not aware that there are wealthier parts of Mississauga but the numbers you posted basically show that Brampton and most of Mississauga are similar in house hold earnings to Burnaby, Richmond and Coquitlam.

The Greater Toronto Area has a population of 6.5 million, the Greater Vancouver population is about 2.5 million.  Greater Vancouver doesn't 'really' have any outer suburbs that compare to the Greater Toronto area. If you want to count south of the Fraser River as outer suburbs, there is Delta and Surrey and the points east and north: Langley City/Langley Township, Chilliwack, Abbotsford, and Maple Ridge/Mission/Pitt Meadows (these three cities used to be referred to collectively as Dewdney, I don't know why that name seems to have be dropped.)

In some ways, Surrey is both a suburb of Vancouver and a separate city. It is much bigger than Vancouver in area and is expected to overtake Vancouver in population within 20 years.  The city managers there are always trying to make it more likely that people who live in Surrey can work in Surrey.  In the sense that Surrey is becoming a city, Langley City is increasingly becoming a suburb of Surrey, which is why the likely NDP has become more competitive there.

If you want to consider Surrey as an outer suburb, then you are certainly correct that the Toronto outer suburbs are much wealthier, as Surrey from west to east, basically goes from wealthy to middle class to relatively poor (though the east side of Surrey is being steadily gentrified.)

Langley Township, Chilliwack and Abbotsford are more like exurbs than outer suburbs, and vote accordingly.

West Vancouver is an outer suburb but it's very wealthy and I think it would be fair to consider the Tri Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody as outer suburbs.  But, overall (excluding Surrey), the Greater Vancouver area has no where near the total population living in the outer suburbs, even relative to the population of the entire province, as the Greater Toronto area.

[King of Kensington]

I disagree, it's pretty clear that Elliott would have been a stronger leader than Ford. Ford's personal ratings are almost as bad as Wynne's, so he's clearly been a drag on the PCs. The PCs were over 40% in the polls before the Brown allegations, and since Ford became leader they've gone from nearly 45% to just over 35%. As has been pointed out previously, Doug doesn't even have Rob Ford's charisma. And Elliott would have maintained the People's Guarantee(except for the carbon tax) and wouldn't have had the whole lack of a costed platform fiasco.

Furthermore, this assumes that the NDP would have been able to consolidate the left as effectively. Elliott is less of a motivator for strategic voting than Ford is-and the NDP may have struggled to consolidate the left. And Elliott also would have gotten more of the 'change' vote-Horwath's whole attack on choosing between 'bad and worse' may have been less effective when it's not Doug Ford vs Kathleen Wynne.

The PCs should have this election in the bag. When Wynne and the Liberals are so unpopular, they're the logical alternative. Horwath has run a strong campaign but the NDP has been aided a lot by the other two unpopular parties, which also makes their negatives much less significant. Ford's bad campaign is why the NDP is competitive with them for that change vote, and if the PCs lose they'll have only themselves to blame.

Yes, that is the conventional wisdom.  Maybe it would have proven true.  But maybe not.

[Pericles]

If Ford somehow wins in a landslide, then maybe he was more electable than previously thought. But even if he wins a close election-it shouldn't have been close. And maybe if he loses in a landslide then he'd be an awful leader but that would suggest Horwath may have been able to beat Elliott too. It's pretty clear though that the Ontario PCs have done their very best to lose this election-the question now isn't whether they've run a good campaign but whether they win in spite of themselves.

[adma]

In all this talk about Toronto vs Vancouver; maybe a more pertinent point re NDP strength vs weakness might be Ottawa vs Victoria.  (Though of course, one might counter that with SW Ontario vs the BC Interior.)

Where might Hamilton stand re such equivalencies?

[adma]

If you are leading your party to an historic defeat, I'd lost say it's almost better to lose your seat.

Privately, yes.  Publicly, better to keep up appearances for the sake of all involved.

[adma]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

I feel that in practice, you're reading too much "Simon Hughes" impulse into the electorate.

[136or142]

One thought for the NDP, and Andrea Horwath herself, is to introduce her proposed front bench to Ontarians now. Like it or not, Ford's "the sky is falling if NDP takes over" is resonating.

Horwath would do well to outline that her cabinet would not be made up of "poppy-haters, Hitler lovers and radical marxists" but would include capable and credible people, with experience in politics; people like Peter Tabuns, John Vanthof, Catherine Fife, Michael Mantha, France Gelinas, Gilles Bisson...

Will it sway voters? I don't know but it would be a stronger answer than Horwath trying to fight windmills on her own. And it would make perfect sense, after outlining the NDP platform, to present the team that would carry out the program. After all what does she have to lose?

I gave this some thought and I came up with a few points.

1.The Liberals basically did this at the start of the 1993 Federal Election in order to try to deemphasize  Jean Chretien who was derided as 'yesterday's man.'  The Liberal Party campaign material heavily emphasized 'the team' and some of the new 'star' candidates.  (I remember John Godfrey (who won) and some big Calgary oilman (Bob somebody I think, who lost) were among the most prominently mentioned along with some 'star' current M.Ps like Paul Martin.

I can't quite remember what happened to that strategy, but I'm pretty sure, with the debates and the leader's tour, the Liberal campaign ended up as leader-centric as any other.

2.Some of those MPPs you mention and a few others (I would think Wayne Gates, Peggy Sattler,  Percy Hatfield and Jennifer French are also well respected) are probably fairly well known in their regions, and it might not be a bad idea for them to visit other ridings in their regions if they haven't already done that.

3.However, trying to introduce the NDP 'team' this late in the campaign probably won't work with most voters.  I think it's basically too much too late.

4.To the degree that it would have an effect though, I think it would have a mixed effect.  For 'Red Liberals' I think it would be assuring, for 'Blue Liberals' I think it might even be a greater turnoff.  For many of these people, the problem is the NDP ideology and not its competence. What these people would here is: "We have a competent team to implement our terrible policies.'  For instance, just imagine how much worse Trump would be if he and his administration had a clue in implementing policies.

These 'Blue Liberals' might otherwise be persuadable to vote NDP this one time, as long as they didn't think the NDP would actually do much in power.

5.The best approach to this then, I think, is, without suggesting that the NDP has already assumed victory and isn't concerned about the actual will of the voters, would be to announce the Chief of Staff/Deputy Premier beforehand (of course, to do this, they'd have to be already negotiating with somebody and I don't know if they are or not.)  This person should be somebody who would be reassuring to most voters, especially those in the business community.  So, ideally somebody like John Tory.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

In all this talk about Toronto vs Vancouver; maybe a more pertinent point re NDP strength vs weakness might be Ottawa vs Victoria.  (Though of course, one might counter that with SW Ontario vs the BC Interior.)

Where might Hamilton stand re such equivalencies?

I think the whole niagara region is a good stand in for VI actually. Just like VI you have a couple of pockets of conservative strength but the region is still generally fairly left leaning.

[136or142]

In all this talk about Toronto vs Vancouver; maybe a more pertinent point re NDP strength vs weakness might be Ottawa vs Victoria.  (Though of course, one might counter that with SW Ontario vs the BC Interior.)

Where might Hamilton stand re such equivalencies?

The last I heard, Hamilton is now considered an outer suburb of Toronto (part of the horseshoe.)

[136or142]

In all this talk about Toronto vs Vancouver; maybe a more pertinent point re NDP strength vs weakness might be Ottawa vs Victoria.  (Though of course, one might counter that with SW Ontario vs the BC Interior.)

Where might Hamilton stand re such equivalencies?

I think the whole niagara region is a good stand in for VI actually. Just like VI you have a couple of pockets of conservative strength but the region is still generally fairly left leaning.

Mostly just Parksville, Qualicum Beach and Comox. The areas where all the people from Alberta come to when they retire.  (Part joke, partly true.)

Conservatives (and B.C Liberals) keep hoping that the unionized resource workers (extraction and processing) in and around central and northern Vancouver Island will turn from the NDP, but it hasn't happened so far in any great number.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

In all this talk about Toronto vs Vancouver; maybe a more pertinent point re NDP strength vs weakness might be Ottawa vs Victoria.  (Though of course, one might counter that with SW Ontario vs the BC Interior.)

Where might Hamilton stand re such equivalencies?

I think the whole niagara region is a good stand in for VI actually. Just like VI you have a couple of pockets of conservative strength but the region is still generally fairly left leaning.

Mostly just Parksville, Qualicum Beach and Comox. The areas where all the people from Alberta come to when they retire.  (Part joke, partly true.)

Conservatives (and B.C Liberals) keep hoping that the unionized resource workers in and around central and northern Vancouver Island (extraction and processing) will turn from the NDP, but it hasn't happened so far in any great numbers.

Not to go to far off topic but it was so ironic that the VI (Courtney-Comox) directly cost Christy Clark her majority even though she made a big play for the island vote including an island specific platform and everything.