Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

I think it's because the NDP is vastly increasing its vote precisely in places where it never won before and is becoming the "official opposition" almost everywhere.  

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

I don't see that happening.  There is no "Corbynesque" movement among the young people of Ontario or any Andrea-mania really (or anything resembling the excitement about Justin Trudeau in 2015, for that matter).  People are turning to the NDP more because they're tired of the Liberals and are willing to give the NDP a try.

Indeed. Turnout has been dismal in recent provincial elections, and I doubt this one will be much different. Though the polarization will help boost turnout a bit. If the NDP had a more charismatic leader they'd probably win in a slam dunk.

I see. But the problem with that is, does the ONDP even have anyone with charisma? The only person I can think of is Jagmeet and he left for federal politics (where he doesn't seem to have done very well so far). It also seems like Horwath has done a well enough job being personable and likable, and with the other two party leaders as unpopular as they are, being liked, or even just not hated, may prove to be enough. Maybe one of the (presumably) many newly-elected MPs will prove to be a wellspring of charisma and gear up to take on Ford in 2022 should the PCs win.

Also, on Facebook I spotted the Libs posting a graphic showing that "only the Liberals can stop the NDP," i.e. begging PC voters to look past how much they hate the Liberals and bail them out to stop the socialist hordes, which, given the past 23 years of Ontario politics, may just be the most pathetic thing I've ever seen from a campaign

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course Horwath is personable and likable compared to those two.

Also, on Facebook I spotted the Libs posting a graphic showing that "only the Liberals can stop the NDP," i.e. begging PC voters to look past how much they hate the Liberals and bail them out to stop the socialist hordes, which, given the past 23 years of Ontario politics, may just be the most pathetic thing I've ever seen from a campaign

I saw that too. Hilariously disgusting. I guess it's the only strategy they know.

[King of Kensington]

Also, on Facebook I spotted the Libs posting a graphic showing that "only the Liberals can stop the NDP," i.e. begging PC voters to look past how much they hate the Liberals and bail them out to stop the socialist hordes, which, given the past 23 years of Ontario politics, may just be the most pathetic thing I've ever seen from a campaign

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

[136or142]

It's a general guideline for punditry, but it's only speculation. We should know from the BC election that geographic disadvantages can prove to be non existent.

The Lower Mainland suburbs seem to be more working class than the 905 region.

How do you define working class?

The only 'blue collar' heavily unionized city in the Lower Mainland is New Westminster.  There are a lot of generally higher paid unionized 'grey collar' workers (technically skilled people working in both the public and private sector) in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and the City of North Vancouver.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[King of Kensington]

How do you define working class?

The only 'blue collar' heavily unionized city in the Lower Mainland is New Westminster.  There are a lot of generally higher paid unionized 'grey collar' workers (technically skilled people working in both the public and private sector) in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and the City of North Vancouver.

Don't want to get too much into semantics, but to me it includes more than manual workers.  It also includes most non-professional white collar workers (while understanding they're a bit different than the working class "proper").

But another way to slice it is that Van suburbs have lower incomes than GTA suburbs.

[136or142]

How do you define working class?

The only 'blue collar' heavily unionized city in the Lower Mainland is New Westminster.  There are a lot of generally higher paid unionized 'grey collar' workers (technically skilled people working in both the public and private sector) in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and the City of North Vancouver.

But another way to slice it is that Van suburbs have lower incomes than GTA suburbs.

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

[PeteB]

One thought for the NDP, and Andrea Horwath herself, is to introduce her proposed front bench to Ontarians now. Like it or not, Ford's "the sky is falling if NDP takes over" is resonating.

Horwath would do well to outline that her cabinet would not be made up of "poppy-haters, Hitler lovers and radical marxists" but would include capable and credible people, with experience in politics; people like Peter Tabuns, John Vanthof, Catherine Fife, Michael Mantha, France Gelinas, Gilles Bisson...

Will it sway voters? I don't know but it would be a stronger answer than Horwath trying to fight windmills on her own. And it would make perfect sense, after outlining the NDP platform, to present the team that would carry out the program. After all what does she have to lose?

[adma]

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

Ottawa Centre, most likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

Ottawa Centre, most likely.

Ottawa Centre also has Tories who will vote NDP to stop the Liberals.

[PeteB]

An expected but less than enthusiastic endorsement for Doug Ford from the National Post:

"...So, while this is probably not the best choice Ontario has ever had, it is a clear choice: the Liberals must go and the NDP must not win. Ontario would therefore best be served by a Progressive Conservative government led by Doug Ford."

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-ontarios-choice-is-clear-if-less-than-ideal-a-progressive-conservative-government

[DC Al Fine]

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

Ottawa Centre, most likely.

Ottawa Centre also has Tories who will vote NDP to stop the Liberals.

As a Tory...

F the Liberals and their natural governing party nonsense. May they get wiped out forever and ever amen.

[RogueBeaver]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

[DC Al Fine]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

Damn.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But that's electoral suicide!

[ON Progressive]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

This will just make sure there are zero Liberals at Queen’s Park

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Makes me lose a lot of respect for her. If this was going to be an option for her final-week strategy, she should have given up six months ago and let the party choose someone else to take them into the election.

[mileslunn]

Wynne conceding may be a dumb move, but I actually think what she is signaling is if you like your MPP, but don't like the her or the OLP, it's safe to vote for them without re-electing the Liberals.  Doubt it will work, but we shall see.  Ujjal Dosanjh did this back in 2001 and his argument was to vote NDP to prevent the BC Liberals from winning all 79 seats.  Whether this saved the party the 2 seats they won or not, hard to say.

[DC Al Fine]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

This will just make sure there are zero Liberals at Queen’s Park

Glorious

[PeteB]

It may be a case of too little too late, but we will see. She should have done it at the debate, as I suggested.

Still, I can actually see a path for success for her. She is counting that there are enough people who dislike Doug Ford more than they dislike her (which is true) and who would, if they knew the Liberals were gone anyway, vote differently.

[toaster]

When I started watching the press conference I honestly thought she was going to endorse the NDP.  She started talking about how much she loves the province, and I thought she was going to say she puts that ahead of her own interest.  But then she went on to paint the NDP as extreme as Doug Ford is, which is not the case.  It's always politics with her, everything is calculated.  Anyway, now that she's conceded I do think it will make a lot of the Lib/NDP fencers to go NDP.  I just don't hope Liberals use this as a bargaining chip in the future to say "Well, we let you win because we conceded".  No, you would have only won 2 seats anyway.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

It may be a case of too little too late, but we will see. She should have done it at the debate, as I suggested.

Still, I can actually see a path for success for her. She is counting that there are enough people who dislike Doug Ford more than they dislike her (which is true) and who would, if they knew the Liberals were gone anyway, vote differently.

Except most voters didn't think the Liberals had that much of a chance of getting re-elected anyway. Like how many of those voters really thought the Liberals were going to win anyway?

The NDP tried a similar tactic in 2001 in BC and it didn't help them much so not sure why it would work for Wynne.

[PeteB]

It may be a case of too little too late, but we will see. She should have done it at the debate, as I suggested.

Still, I can actually see a path for success for her. She is counting that there are enough people who dislike Doug Ford more than they dislike her (which is true) and who would, if they knew the Liberals were gone anyway, vote differently.

Except most voters didn't think the Liberals had that much of a chance of getting re-elected anyway. Like how many of those voters really thought the Liberals were going to win anyway?

The NDP tried a similar tactic in 2001 in BC and it didn't help them much so not sure why it would work for Wynne.

You are dead wrong. Most forum posters here were well aware of her slim chances, I agree, but most voters were still being driven by"we have to punish the Liberals" and are by no means convinced that the Liberals had no chance. I just spoke to a reasonably informed couple outside Barrie, who were concerned that if they don't vote PC, Liberals would take that seat!?!

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

...how?

Look, most voters don't know who placed where in their riding last time round. Admitting her party's electoral irrelevance opens the Liberals up to the same nightmarish logic that saw the NDP further pulverised in 1999...