Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a reason people are refusing to post the results of these famed riding polls on this thread?
This isn't a difficult request; it would be helpful for us without access to see what you are talking about.

They're paywalled.

[Hifly]

How exactly are they going to find out through the colour of your avatar?
Could someone very kindly post a summary of today's polls. Thanks.

[DL]

Just for the hell of it I decided to go back and dig up the riding polls that Mainstreet (and others) did in the 2017 BC election to see how accurate they were. The answer - NOT VERY. In almost every single case they overestimated BC Liberal support by a lot and underestimated BC NDP support. I know that BC is not Ontario and that Ontario ridings are larger etc... but I think its still worth looking at

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

Another company - Oracle did a bunch of riding polls on Vancouver Island. Same pattern, almost all were dead wrong and again they generally overestimated the BC Liberals and underestimated the NDP and in these cases the Greens

Courtenay-Comox
BC Liberals   44% (they got 37%)
NDP             29% (they got 37%)
Green          27% (they got 18%)

Saanich North and The Islands
NDP             34% (they got 30%)
BC Liberal    34% (they got 27%)
Green          32% (they got 42%)

Esquimalt-Metchosin
NDP            40% (they got 46%)
BC Liberals  32% (they got 28%)
Green         28% (they got 25%)

Cowichan Valley
BC Liberals  37% (they got 28%)
NDP            35% (they got 31%)
Green         24% (they got 37%)
 

[ON Progressive]

Just for the hell of it I decided to go back and dig up the riding polls that Mainstreet (and others) did in the 2017 BC election to see how accurate they were. The answer - NOT VERY. In almost every single case they overestimated BC Liberal support by a lot and underestimated BC NDP support. I know that BC is not Ontario and that Ontario ridings are larger etc... but I think its still worth looking at

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

Another company - Oracle did a bunch of riding polls on Vancouver Island. Same pattern, almost all were dead wrong and again they generally overestimated the BC Liberals and underestimated the NDP and in these cases the Greens

Courtenay-Comox
BC Liberals   44% (they got 37%)
NDP             29% (they got 37%)
Green          27% (they got 18%)

Saanich North and The Islands
NDP             34% (they got 30%)
BC Liberal    34% (they got 27%)
Green          32% (they got 42%)

Esquimalt-Metchosin
NDP            40% (they got 46%)
BC Liberals  32% (they got 28%)
Green         28% (they got 25%)

Cowichan Valley
BC Liberals  37% (they got 28%)
NDP            35% (they got 31%)
Green         24% (they got 37%)
 

Great post. I was hoping to find those BC riding polls when I mentioned them earlier in the thread.

[mileslunn]

How exactly are they going to find out through the colour of your avatar?
Could someone very kindly post a summary of today's polls. Thanks.

It's only $45 so if you want them just sign up.  I guess if someone is willing to have their subscription revoked they can post them but I am not so I will make a few teases, but no posting.  You can always try tweeting Quito Maggi.  He may give out some hints although not details for sure.

[King of Kensington]

It's a Ford Nation riding where the Conservatives have traditionally been very, very weak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes me wonder about York South-Weston, a riding with an almost identical vote share to the riding in question in 2014 and an almost identical mayoral vote share distribution from 2014.

[DL]

Makes me wonder about York South-Weston, a riding with an almost identical vote share to the riding in question in 2014 and an almost identical mayoral vote share distribution from 2014.

There are some key differences though. YSW is in an older part of the city and even has some rapidly gentrifying areas, whereas HVBC is all pretty dismal postwar bungalows and housing projects

[King of Kensington]

Another thing:  The NDP is sure to win at least one seat in Ottawa.

[mileslunn]

And another thing that is sure to happen.  Liberals will fall to third place and both the PCs and NDP will have much larger caucuses than they did going in regardless of whom wins.

[King of Kensington]

There is no NDP path to victory if the PCs hold them back in outer Toronto and Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another thing:  The NDP is sure to win at least one seat in Ottawa.

and with a late minute swing might even win four seats!

Even if the NDP loses the election, I would be quite pleased with that result.

[King of Kensington]

That's entirely within the realm of possibility.  Ottawa doesn't seem very "Fordian" at all. 

It seems that Ottawa South and Ottawa West-Nepean are genuine three-way races.

[DL]

As horrible as it would be to have Ford become premier, I console myself that the worst case scenario for the NDP is now wayyyy better than the best case scenario appeared to be just a few months ago!

[mileslunn]

As horrible as it would be to have Ford become premier, I console myself that the worst case scenario for the NDP is now wayyyy better than the best case scenario appeared to be just a few months ago!

Also there is a good chance they will win in 2022 if this happens as Ford is a disaster walking so unlike Elliott who could have won two or three terms, Ford will likely be a one term wonder.  In addition an NDP this time would probably be a one term wonder too due to far too many weak candidates.  With their strong showing, they will probably have a much more talented slate next time around so in many ways I think it is blessing in disguise for whichever party loses.  For the Liberals though unless they somehow get 10-15 seats, they will have nothing to cheer about.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if this stuff with Trump and tariffs will help the Liberals a bit in the "John Tory Liberal" constituency (but probably nowhere else).

[Oryxslayer]

As horrible as it would be to have Ford become premier, I console myself that the worst case scenario for the NDP is now wayyyy better than the best case scenario appeared to be just a few months ago!

Also there is a good chance they will win in 2022 if this happens as Ford is a disaster walking so unlike Elliott who could have won two or three terms, Ford will likely be a one term wonder.  In addition an NDP this time would probably be a one term wonder too due to far too many weak candidates.  With their strong showing, they will probably have a much more talented slate next time around so in many ways I think it is blessing in disguise for whichever party loses.  For the Liberals though unless they somehow get 10-15 seats, they will have nothing to cheer about.

I suspect no matter what happens the Lib s will have their act together and the campaign in 2022 will resemble the 2015 campaign in how the NDP was really a 2011->2015 moment. In that regard, this might be the NDP's only chance before it returns to PC v Lib.  

[mileslunn]

As horrible as it would be to have Ford become premier, I console myself that the worst case scenario for the NDP is now wayyyy better than the best case scenario appeared to be just a few months ago!

Also there is a good chance they will win in 2022 if this happens as Ford is a disaster walking so unlike Elliott who could have won two or three terms, Ford will likely be a one term wonder.  In addition an NDP this time would probably be a one term wonder too due to far too many weak candidates.  With their strong showing, they will probably have a much more talented slate next time around so in many ways I think it is blessing in disguise for whichever party loses.  For the Liberals though unless they somehow get 10-15 seats, they will have nothing to cheer about.

I suspect no matter what happens the Lib s will have their act together and the campaign in 2022 will resemble the 2015 campaign in how the NDP was really a 2011->2015 moment. In that regard, this might be the NDP's only chance before it returns to PC v Lib.  

Depends on how far the Liberals fall.  There is no Justin Trudeau type figure waiting in the wings.  If the Liberals can pull off 10 seats, then fully agree.  But if they fall to 2 or 3 seats or even worse to zero seats, then I don't think they will be able to recover.  They are more looking at a Kim Campbell type disaster rather than Michael Ignatieff one and the PCs federally never recovered from that.  Yes the Tories eventually formed government again, but only after merging with the Canadian Alliance and the present Tories are closer to the Reform/Alliance than they are to the former Progressive Conservatives although not quite as right wing as the Reform/Alliance.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course in 2011 people scoffed at the idea of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

[King of Kensington]

Both Stephen Harper and the founders of the NDP believed in one thing: a "proper" polarization with the NDP on the left, the Conservatives on the right and the Liberal center squeezed out.  Harper was of the belief that a proper left/right polarization would benefit the "free enterprise coalition", NDPers believe there's a "progressive majority."

Harper did a lot to win so-called blue Liberals and was successful in 2011 but he was too much of an ideologue to hold it together (he actually sounds more of a rabid ideologue now than he did in power - which is unusual for retired heads of government).  Ford will likely prove even more erratic and incapable of maintaining a united center-right.

[King of Kensington]

Of course in 2011 people scoffed at the idea of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

And I scoff at the idea of STEVEN DEL DUCA leading the OLP.  Maybe I'll eat my words in 4 years.

[UWS]

Doug Ford would run higher deficits than NDP and the Liberals according to economists. So that means that the NDP has become the party of fiscal responsibility.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4245631/doug-ford-pcs-deficit-economists/

[Wisconsin+17]

Yeah, if you believe that, look at BC and Alberta.

[Wisconsin+17]

[quote]overestimated BC Liberal support by a lot and underestimated BC NDP support.[quote]

I don't think anyone predicted a +9 Liberal swing in the interior and a +9 NDP swing in the lower mainland.

All those ridings were considered to be tossups. Hardly a condemnation of the polls that they got calls wrong on ridings that were the most difficult to predict.

[136or142]

Yeah, if you believe that, look at B.C and Alberta.

I agree the NDP aren't a party of fiscal responsibility (although in B.C there is still a small operating surplus) but that doesn't automatically mean that the P.Cs are a party of fiscal responsibility, or even that the P.Cs are more fiscally responsible than the NDP.