Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

Wynne would probably be NDP. Probably.

She'd definitely be more Vision Vancouver than NPA.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 77 seats to the NDP 41 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

[136or142]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 71 seats to the NDP 49 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

This is why Forum Polls are junk polls.

[136or142]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

Completely out of it except for actually voting (and for some reason the right was all up in arms because he represents a Quebec riding, but as PM he lives in Ontario, so what's the big deal?), but some of his MPs have canvassed, but are mostly staying out of it.

Likewise Scheer has stayed out too, but Jagmeet has been out there trying to get his brother elected.

Justin Trudeau did a photo op with Kathleen Wynne before the official start of the campaign.

[PeteB]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 77 seats to the NDP 41 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

Seemingly opposed, but essentially similar polls:

1. Both PC and NDP between 35 and 39%
2. Liberals stuck on 19%
3. Structural advantage would give PC the majority in both (77 seats in the Forum poll and about 65 in the H+K one)

What needs to happen to stop PC majority:
1. NDP clearly pulling away by 5-6% from PC
2. NDP further strengthening in SW, Peel, North, in order to ensure at least 3-5 PC seat gains
3. Liberals gaining some support (22-23%), to ensure they retain 12+ seats, especially in areas of TO and Ottawa, where NDP is uncompetitive.

Can it happen? Yes. Will it? Not so sure.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It won’t happen.

We came so close to really helping liberate a whole generation of students from suffocating interest payments on student loans... and we blew it. All the Chicken Littlism from my conservative friends about an NDP government “tanking the economy” has been spreading. Yet they fail to accept how transformational it would be to give millenial university grads a real chance at a comfortable life in the GTA (not a luxury—it’s where the jobs are).

SMH. But actually.

[DC Al Fine]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 71 seats to the NDP 49 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

This is why Forum Polls are junk polls.

Lol Forum

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

[DC Al Fine]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

[lilTommy]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1001872072300097536

Looks like Higher deficits then the NDP, but lower then the OLP in 19-20, but by 21-22 they will have the highest deficits.

Someone did the costing for Doug, and the Liberals did as well http://dougfordscostedplatform.ca/

Basically he's hiding what the PCs are going to do, he's either lying about all his promised tax cuts/revenue cuts meaning some/many will stay OR he will have to massively cut spending, I can see that there is some waste, but 11Billion worth?
To give you an Idea of what 11Billion is, that's basically what Ontario spends on Post Secondary and Training
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-2018-ontario-budget-in-charts-and-numbers/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1001872072300097536

Looks like Higher deficits then the NDP, but lower then the OLP in 19-20, but by 21-22 they will have the highest deficits.

Someone did the costiung for Doug, and the Liberals did as well http://dougfordscostedplatform.ca/

Basically he's hiding what the PCs are going to do, he's either lying about all his promised tac cuts/revenue cuts meaning some/many will stay OR he will have to massively cut spending, I can see that there is some waste, but 11Billion worth?
To give you an Idea of what 11Billion is, that's basically what Ontario spends on Post Secondary and Training
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-2018-ontario-budget-in-charts-and-numbers/

Ontario, you can re-elect the Liberals or elect the NDP, or you can put Doug in Queen's Park and get what's inside this mystery box!

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1001872072300097536

Looks like Higher deficits then the NDP, but lower then the OLP in 19-20, but by 21-22 they will have the highest deficits.

Someone did the costiung for Doug, and the Liberals did as well http://dougfordscostedplatform.ca/

Basically he's hiding what the PCs are going to do, he's either lying about all his promised tac cuts/revenue cuts meaning some/many will stay OR he will have to massively cut spending, I can see that there is some waste, but 11Billion worth?
To give you an Idea of what 11Billion is, that's basically what Ontario spends on Post Secondary and Training
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-2018-ontario-budget-in-charts-and-numbers/

Ontario, you can re-elect the Liberals or elect the NDP, or you can put Doug in Queen's Park and get what's inside this mystery box!

The Box! The Box!

^{This is one of my favorite Simpsons references.}

[DL]

FYI, yesterday Mainstreet initially neglected to post their riding poll for Pickering-Uxbridge. It is currently a Liberal seat but one that most woulkd expect the PCs to easily pickup - the PCs are in the lead but the NDP is surprisingly competitive there in the mid-30s....we have seen this pattern in a lot of the riding polls. For whatever reason, Mainstreet has chosen to mostly (with a few exceptions) poll in ridings that would normally be NDP dead zones in York region and rural Ontario...they haven't had the NDP actually ahead in many of those places but they do show the NDP within single digits of the PCs in such unlikely places as Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound, Kitchener-Conestoga, York-Simcoe and Pickering-Uxbridge. Of course coming close only counts in horseshoes...

[Hatman 🍁]

They'll be posting some more NDP-friendly ridings today including:

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Niagara Falls
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kitchener Centre
Humber River-Black Creek
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Mississauga-Streetsville (WHY? Should be a safe PC seat)

Whatever they show for Spadina-Fort York you can throw in the garbage, as who in that riding even owns a landline?

Maggi hinted last night that his riding polling yesterday was convincing him of a PC majority. Does this mean the NDP is trailing in these ridings? These should all be going NDP except maybe TBSN.

[DL]

They'll be posting some more NDP-friendly ridings today including:

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Niagara Falls
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kitchener Centre

Whatever they show for Spadina-Fort York you can throw in the garbage, as who in that riding even owns a landline?

Maggi hinted last night that his riding polling yesterday was convincing him of a PC majority. Does this mean the NDP is trailing in these ridings? These should all be going NDP except maybe TBSN.

Nah...the fact is none of the ridings listed above would be likely to go PC even if they won 80 seats. They are mostly NDP/OLP contests...and Maggi seems to expect the NDP to get close to 50 seats. To go from 20 seats to 50 seats you have to be winning most if not all of those NDP/Liberal contests. I think that when Maggi says he expects the PCs to get a majority it is more based on what he sees in all the riding polls he has done in 905 that seem to show the PCs running the tables there

[King of Kensington]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

Re: the working class vote, there's not as much a partisan divide based on class compared to 1990.  In 1990 you had a pattern where the working class voted NDP and the well to do voted mostly Liberal.  This time you have the PCs and NDP competing for the working class vote, and the Liberals may end up being a boutique party for those repulsed by Ford but unable to vote for the "workers' party" either.

[DL]

In Germany the "liberal" party is the FDP - and they position themselves as liberal on social policy and laissez faire on economic policy...their nickname (which the Ontario Liberals better get used to) is "the party of doctors and dentists"

[Hatman 🍁]

but just like the left in other parts of the world, the NDP's base is becoming more and more higher educated while the working class is becoming more and more attracted to right wing populism.

[King of Kensington]

Was the Mike Harris of 1990 basically the same Harris of 1995?  Or did he recast himself from a more "mainstream" PC to the Common Sense Revolutionary he became known for?

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

[DC Al Fine]

Was the Mike Harris of 1990 basically the same Harris of 1995?  Or did he recast himself from a more "mainstream" PC to the Common Sense Revolutionary he became known for?

I'm not sure about the campaign itself but he won the leadership on a fairly right wing platform.

[DL]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

From experience I an VERY sceptical of anyone's ability to IVR poll in urban ridings that are largely condos with young populations or in very low income heavily ethnic ridings...the response rates tend to be very very very low and very unrepredsentative

[King of Kensington]

but just like the left in other parts of the world, the NDP's base is becoming more and more higher educated while the working class is becoming more and more attracted to right wing populism.

Yes, the progressive middle classes have really shifted toward the NDP in this election.

[King of Kensington]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

The Campaign Research poll of TO ridings actually put the PCs in the lead there!  Small sample size though.