Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

QM has a sense of humor - who knew?

Sorry, I understand that a Doug Ford led PC majority government is not what almost two thirds of Ontario voters want, our math tells us this very clearly.

Not sorry. The math is clear, in riding polls across Ontario, in Province wide polls, a PC majority is almost inevitable.

[DL]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

I agree. Like Maggi, and unlike most here, I believe that the fundamentals for a PC win are all there, but in an election as volatile as this one, I would wait and be more cautious with predictions such as this.

Besides, I am not convinced that PC would have a majority, even if they finish as the biggest party at Queen's Park.

[ON Progressive]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

I agree. Like Maggi, and unlike most here, I believe that the fundamentals for a PC win are all there, but in an election as volatile as this one, I would wait and be more cautious with predictions such as this.

Besides, I am not convinced that PC would have a majority, even if they finish as the biggest party at Queen's Park.

Yeah, I'd wait until this week is over to be so sure of a PC majority, although it is the most likely result to happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

He's got some balls, doesn't he. After the Calgary election, I thought he would exercise a degree of caution.

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

I agree. Like Maggi, and unlike most here, I believe that the fundamentals for a PC win are all there, but in an election as volatile as this one, I would wait and be more cautious with predictions such as this.

Besides, I am not convinced that PC would have a majority, even if they finish as the biggest party at Queen's Park.

Yeah, I'd wait until this week is over to be so sure of a PC majority, although it is the most likely result to happen.

Especially since he said this only 2 days ago:
“It’s official – Doug Ford has blown the large lead he had in March and the Ontario election is a competitive affair,” President and CEO of Mainstreet Research, Quito Maggi, said in a release Monday.

[King of Kensington]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

So the Liberals will end up like the BC Greens and hold the balance of power with their few seats?

Speaking of BC, it's hard to imagine either Doug Ford or Kathleen Wynne leading the BC Liberals!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

[DabbingSanta]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP manages to win. If you look at the polls overall, they've skyrocketed in support the past three weeks. 6, 8, even 10 points, and the NDP are leading in most polls. All it would take is a few rural ridings in southwestern Ontario to flip for a minority government. My riding London North Centre, which would have been an easy win for PC candidate Truppe, is expected to be won by an NDP candidate with little name recognition. If you look on social media, the public seems to believe the Conservatives do not have a platform (fake news), and there is some consensus that Doug Ford is a doofus.

[DabbingSanta]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

I'm not sure about the political demographics up there, but in my riding white working class areas have been trending NDP.  Rural areas are a different story....

[King of Kensington]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

He is very competitive with working class voters but so is Andrea Horwath.

[MaxQue]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

How Mayor Bill Smith is doing in Calgary?

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

So the Liberals will end up like the BC Greens and hold the balance of power with their few seats?

The Greens or the Liberals (or both!).

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Hmm, we'd have to re-incarnate some old parties. Ford would be a SoCred and Wynne would be a...  Progressive Democrat?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

Imagine a Trump vs Sanders race instead of a Trump vs. Clinton race.

[PeteB]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

Imagine a Trump vs Sanders race instead of a Trump vs. Clinton race.

Oh, Clinton is there as well (Wynne )!

[King of Kensington]

As I said above, BC has a more NDP-favorable map than Ontario.  The Lower Mainland suburbs have far fewer York Region or Kanata-type dead zones (and Ontario doesn't really have a "Vancouver Island" equivalent).

[adma]

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

No, but he only has a modest single digit lead over the NDP in a seat that he won by a big margin in 2014

Though it was a neatly-split-opposition kind of "big margin"--he only got 41.81%.  (Yeah, yeah, blame Hudak)

[adma]

Yet this aggregator http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ Has Brampton Centre for the NDP at 51%, but Brampton North PC 39/33 over the NDP.

Keep in mind that it's the awkwardness of projecting from past results--Brampton Centre's 2014 figure is high only because it was largely represented by Jagmeet Singh; but those were also Jagmeet Singh's weakest parts.  Take his incumbency away, and a deflation of NDP numbers relative to aggregator predictions is kind of inevitable...

[adma]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

He seems awfully editorial-ish, particularly in his portrayal of the ONDP as heavy-duty SJW.  (As if such candidates *haven't* been in the running in the past, even in breakthrough elections like Layton '11 or Notley '15.)

Methinks he would've predicted a contrary-to-polls stomping Theresa May majority in Britain last year.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

[Holmes]

Ford has no appeal in Northern Ontario, no.

[ON Progressive]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

They generally stay out, and it would tank him to campaign with someone as unpopular as Wynne anyway

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

Completely out of it except for actually voting (and for some reason the right was all up in arms because he represents a Quebec riding, but as PM he lives in Ontario, so what's the big deal?), but some of his MPs have canvassed, but are mostly staying out of it.

Likewise Scheer has stayed out too, but Jagmeet has been out there trying to get his brother elected.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

So the Liberals will end up like the BC Greens and hold the balance of power with their few seats?

The Greens or the Liberals (or both!).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm, we'd have to re-incarnate some old parties. Ford would be a SoCred and Wynne would be a...  Progressive Democrat?

Wynne would probably be NDP. Probably.

[King of Kensington]

If Brampton turns out to be another "Scarborough" then the NDP ain't going to win the election.