Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly the PCs had the first leader of Italian origin - Patrick Brown (he is the nephew of Joe Tascona), which went unnoticed.  He never really played that up and never represented an "ethnic" constituency.  

And Fedeli I guess sorta counts, though he was only the interim leader briefly.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't going to win Vaughan, so all of this is a moot point.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I don't see how he's going to get a boost of 5000+ votes just because people think he might lead the Liberal Party that's about to get turfed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is favored favoured in Mississauga Centre?

The PCs should sweep Mississauga. I suppose the NDP has an outside chance at Mississauga-Malton, but probably not.

[mileslunn]

Who is favored favoured in Mississauga Centre?

The PCs should sweep Mississauga. I suppose the NDP has an outside chance at Mississauga-Malton, but probably not.

I think Hurricane Hazel's endorsement helps.  For whatever reason people seem to love her in Mississauga.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is favored favoured in Mississauga Centre?

The PCs should sweep Mississauga. I suppose the NDP has an outside chance at Mississauga-Malton, but probably not.

I think Hurricane Hazel's endorsement helps.  For whatever reason people seem to love her in Mississauga.

Doesn't seem to be helping Sousa.

[PeteB]

Who is favored favoured in Mississauga Centre?

The PCs should sweep Mississauga. I suppose the NDP has an outside chance at Mississauga-Malton, but probably not.

I think Hurricane Hazel's endorsement helps.  For whatever reason people seem to love her in Mississauga.

It's definitely PCs to lose in Mississauga Centre, but they are on their third candidate, after Granic Allen was replaced. The Liberals or even the NDP (although this is more Liberal-friendly territory) may actually have a shot.

[King of Kensington]

Among 905 seats, I would rank Oakville higher than Vaughan in terms of likelihood for surprise Liberal holdout (though neither is likely!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is favored favoured in Mississauga Centre?

The PCs should sweep Mississauga. I suppose the NDP has an outside chance at Mississauga-Malton, but probably not.

I think Hurricane Hazel's endorsement helps.  For whatever reason people seem to love her in Mississauga.

It's definitely PCs to lose in Mississauga Centre, but they are on their third candidate, after Granic Allen was replaced. The Liberals or even the NDP (although this is more Liberal-friendly territory) may actually have a shot.

The NDP is not winning with that anti-poppy candidate.

[King of Kensington]

At least the "anti-poppy" candidate isn't running in Bay of Quinte!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the 'poppy' issue exactly?

[MaxQue]

What is the 'poppy' issue exactly?

An attempt by the media and the right-wingers to create an US-style cult of the military.

[adma]

But compared to say BC, yeah, the number of NDP dead zones is bigger in Ontario.  Van's suburbs have traditionally been more favorable - it doesn't really have the equivalent of York Region.  Van suburbs for the most part are more like Peel/Durham.

What about Richmond?  Or perhaps everything hugging the US border all the way to Abbotsford (a Barrie/Simcoe equivalent?)

[adma]

OK what isn't happening (unless things change dramatically) is the Rae '90 SW Ontario near-sweep.  The NDP is driving the Liberals out of the cities but will have a much harder time defeating PC MPPs.

Though it's worth noting that they had a hard time defeating PC MPPs in 1990 as well--only one was defeated (but IIRC 3 open seats were picked up, and 3 held).  Then again, after the Grossman disaster there were so few of them, anyway...

[adma]

The NDP is not winning with that anti-poppy candidate.

In case of a wave, they actually could--much as Vegas Ruth Ellen did federally in 2011 (yeah, I know she overcame her punchline status with colours; but, still).

Now, if the wave approached Forum rogue-poll levels, who knows whether Mississauga-Lakeshore might be a Pierrefonds-Dollard-style Dipper pickup...

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001267471775494146

OLP getting post debate bump at expense of the NDP

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001267471775494146

OLP getting post debate bump at expense of the NDP

Some of that could just be convergence as Mainstreet had the OLP lower then other pollsters.

[DL]

Mainstreet has the OLP at an incredibly low 16% so a dead cat bounce would not be a surprise

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet has 39/37/16, Ford leads by 10 in 905, Horwath by 12 in 416.

The NDP at 40% in toronto?! Ya, if that holds true, the Liberals will be lucky if anyone holds their seats, the NDP vote will be strong enough to allow the PCs and NDP to split the city. But i have been hearing the even Ford is in a tight race, and the NDP is within reach of Etobicoke North... which might be why you saw Quadri pull that stunt the other day. Not only that, I think Scarborough North and Centre are also NDP seats with this poll, I could see the NDP at 15-16 seats.

South Central, at 50%, when you look at where that is (Hamilton-NIagara) Makes sense, The PC will be lucky to hold Niagara West, Flamborough--Glanbrook and Haldimand--Norfolk. Also, Guelph is no longer favoured, in my opinion, for the greens. They have seen the vote tank from 7.4 in the 5/18 poll to 3.8.

I like the division of Southwest and Southcentral. The NDP will pick up London NC, and I still think they will win Chathan-Kent-Leamington... but its about 44/40 against the PCs, other then Sarnia-Lambton it will be hard gone. But, half of OLP voters have the NDP second choice, only 12% the PCs, that the second time i've seen that rough breakout. And over 35% of OLP voters are Likely to switch their vote. But both the PCs are NDP are up from 2014 (=6 PC, +14 NDP), it will be specific riding characteristic that might have an impact based on that poll. The NDP need to pull the PC down by about 5-6% here to really sweep it. But the PCs are down from 46% and the NDP up from 35%

GTA, again PCs down 2% from 44-42, NDP up 4% from 28-32. Not huge movement, but its all the trends that have the PCs/OLP down, NDP up. Still mostly Brampton and Durham wins here for the NDP (3-5 seats)

 

[lilTommy]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

"CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data."

Some I am questioning heavily like Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Centre

[ON Progressive]

I don't want the Liberals to tank too much tbh. I see the Don Valley seats going PC before they go NDP, really. Anyone who knows that area better than I do can correct me on that though.

I do think the Greens are favoured in Guelph, but not by a lot.

The NDP are definitely going to win London North Centre from what I saw when I went into that riding last weekend.

I'm still thinking a PC majority unfortunately unless NDP are within 5% of the PCs in the GTA/Toronto suburbs/905.

[DC Al Fine]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

"CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data."

Some I am questioning heavily like Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Centre

It looks like they aren't adjusting the model for the surge enough, which makes the NDP run up the score in their strongholds and fall short elsewhere.

[PeteB]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

"CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data."

Some I am questioning heavily like Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Centre

I just looked at it and it's pretty inconsistent at the riding level.  In addition to the example you cite, where the Liberals are projected to get 51% of the vote in Humber River (they didn't get that much in the previous election?!?), there are other issues:

1. Brantford Brant and Chatham Kent - the site is showing NDP winning these (which may be likely), but with 21/22% margins against the PCs (which will NOT happen)

2. Etobicoke ridings - this is a total mess - it's showing Ford losing North, Liberals winning Centre with a 9% margin, and PC winning Lakeshore.  They got everything wrong.  Ford WILL win easily in Etobicoke North, and anyone who doubts that should spend some time there.  Etobicoke Centre is TCTC right now and PC has the weakest Etobicoke candidate in Lakeshore, with a popular Liberal MPP.

3. Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - the model is showing a 50% sweep by PC and the Liberals in third.  NDP is a non-factor in this riding so the premise is all wrong, and the Liberal MPP is actually quite popular there.

4. Ottawa ridings - again a total mess.  There is no way NDP is so close to winning in Orleans (short of an orange wave that we haven't seen yet) and almost zero chance that Liberals are third in Ottawa Centre. I also doubt PC can win Ottawa South or the NDP Ottawa Vanier, but at least that is within the realm of possibility.

5. Whitby - the model shows NDP winning, which may happen, but on a cold day in hell.

There are others I disagree with, but at least those are plausible.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?