Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

Hmm. I'm always skeptical of nomination scandals moving votes, but the mistress thing could be big.

This might be like the firing 100,000 last time if a big enough bombshell.  Wondering is there anyway to get rid of Ford as leader this late in the game.  I know they cannot have a leadership convention, but they could appoint a interim leader to lead them.  Yes quite risky but if a big enough might be the only option left.  Interesting the Liberals not NDP are releasing this as every damaging thing on Ford has just helped them not the Liberals.

To paraphrase RogueBeaver, changing leaders midstream is almost always a terrible idea.

Yes, but if bad enough keeping Ford might be even worse.

Sure but what's "bad enough"? Coup d'etat's are chaotic and make the party look unprofessional. Politician's get into scandals all the time. Ford having a mistress and falling behind in the polls is plenty of reason to toss him after the election but it's not nearly enough mid campaign.

Maybe he could be ousted if he sexually assaulted someone or punched a baby or something, but normal crappy leader stuff doesn't merit it.

[adma]

Leger poll:

PCs 37%
NDP 37%
Liberals 21%

They hadn’t polled since April, but that’s PC -6, NDP +11, Lib -5.

Seems like a lot of pollsters are showing ties. I wonder if we’ll get any polls where the NDP are clearly ahead.

All the same, keep in mind that in these polls that the PCs are tumbling from fairly high places (low-to-mid 40s)--and remember that the common assumption was that their vote was "solid", and that neither the Brown scandal nor Ford's legacy could place dents in that base.  Though even then, I was warning that such numbers felt overinflated and the Tory share was due to settle down and "normalize"--now, it'd seem that anything left that'd show them over 40% would be an outlier.  And it might not be the end of this...

[adma]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

Hmm. I'm always skeptical of nomination scandals moving votes, but the mistress thing could be big.

This might be like the firing 100,000 last time if a big enough bombshell.  Wondering is there anyway to get rid of Ford as leader this late in the game.  I know they cannot have a leadership convention, but they could appoint a interim leader to lead them.  Yes quite risky but if a big enough might be the only option left.  Interesting the Liberals not NDP are releasing this as every damaging thing on Ford has just helped them not the Liberals.

To paraphrase RogueBeaver, changing leaders midstream is almost always a terrible idea.

Yes, but if bad enough keeping Ford might be even worse.

Sure but what's "bad enough"? Coup d'etat's are chaotic and make the party look unprofessional. Politician's get into scandals all the time. Ford having a mistress and falling behind in the polls is plenty of reason to toss him after the election but it's not nearly enough mid campaign.

Maybe he could be ousted if he sexually assaulted someone or punched a baby or something, but normal crappy leader stuff doesn't merit it.

Let's keep in mind that other than the Frank nudge-winking, the "mistress" angle isn't really coming to the fore--out of understandable media discretion, of course.  So far.

[lilTommy]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

In regards to #1. The NDP momentum, from 10 days ago now, but goes more to the point I want to make, The NDP has basically already pulled over all the "Core Left" 47% (+17% since 2014) and now lead the "Left-Liberal" group 38% (+18% since 2014). This is the voting group that lead to the NDP losing seats in Toronto, and held them back from winning places like Ottawa Centre.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

But to your point, the NDP is seeing huge growth among "Thrifty Moderates" 31% (+10% since 2014) But so have the PCs 39% (+18 since 2014) This group is where the NDP needs to win over more of if they want to be government.
The PCs have eaten out the "Business Liberal" vote, 37% tied with the OLP, but +16 since 2014 while the OLP has seen -17%.

There is an interesting section called "Canadian Dreamers"

"Meanwhile, some of the economically alienated voters who initially were rallying to the Doug Ford PCs appear to be shifting to the NDP.
Voters who reject the idea you can be anything you want in Ontario if you work for it have shifted from supporting the PCs in April to the NDP in early May.  However, the NDP has also gained in two of the three clusters that are struggling to some degree but believe in the Canadian dream.  There is now a three-way tie among Canadian Dream Hopeful voters while the NDP and Liberals are closing the gap with the PCs among the Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers."

The NDP in rural areas, in particular SWO, I think their chances are rather good. It's been stated that this is not the same as 90's sweep. But looking at the 90's you had the FCP, which at most took 12% in one riding, the Confederation wasn't really an impact but FCP was running in most seats. Today you have the Greens who effectively take that 5-12% in the SW as well, in some ridings much higher like Guelph and Dufferin-Caledon. Some of the riding results from 90, look similar to what we have today but the PCs in third. Today we have the Liberal vote imploding, and I don't see the bulk of this vote going PC, not at this point. The OLP-PC voter already jumped ship back in 2011, when the OLP lost most of the SW to the PCs (except Essex which went NDP) If the PC vote starts to slip even more, I'd expect the SW to look like it did in 2003, but NDP rather then Liberal.

Tommy, I mostly agree with you but I don't think you're discussion of 1990 vote splits is right. FCP did top out at 12%, but they also put up lots of high single digit results and these numbers get even higher when you throw COR into the mix. That's a big deal when we're talking sub 5% wins like a lot of the rural NDP wins. Even if you make generous allowances for some of those voters going NDP or staying home if FCP and COR weren't on the ballot, there's 8 or 9 mostly rural seats that the NDP won off the backs of vote splits

Taking a look at some of those combined FCP/COR votes in 90:
Niagara Falls - 12%
St.Catharines-Brock - 8%
St.Catharines - 11%
Wentworth North - 6%
Lambton - 14% (I think the highest combined support)
Sarnia - 11%
Someone can correct me but those are the only seats with both FCP/COR candidates.

But your right, many seats were won with 30-36% because of PC/OLP votes split. I don't see the OLP vote really holding up like in 90 going by polling.

[adma]

A couple of other things...

(1) The NDP's going into this election with more seats than they did in 1990.
(2) Horwath's projecting more of a "leader-in-waiting" confidence than Rae really did in 1990--he was as bamboozled by what was happening as the rest of us...

[DC Al Fine]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

[136or142]

A couple of other things...

(1) The NDP's going into this election with more seats than they did in 1990.
(2) Horwath's projecting more of a "leader-in-waiting" confidence than Rae really did in 1990--he was as bamboozled by what was happening as the rest of us...

I'm not sure what your point is, but the NDP also had several MPPs who were defeated in either 1985 or 1987 who ran again in 1990.  

[PeteB]

I think that the PC campaign team correctly identified Doug Ford's public perception as their biggest potential  liability. 

There was a piece by Doug Holyday yesterday in The Toronto Sun about how Doug Ford is a swell guy, specifically addressing the bully accusations. I am told that we should expect several high profile endorsements of Doug Ford's character, including some well known names not usually associated with PC. I have my doubts that it will shift a lot of opinion, but it may be enough if the current poll humbers hold.

[lilTommy]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

AH, I was specifically talking about the SW, since the NDP is arguably leading with a large margin and has the best shots ts seats from the PCs. I'm also not disagreeing in the split in 90, helping to elect NDP.
based on Ipsos, the NDP has seen a 13% swing, the PCs only 1% swing; Arguably that moves about 5-7 seats to the NDP, I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

[mileslunn]

The news release was somewhat of a bombshell, but hardly devastating.  Probably just re-enforces the view many have of the Pcs, but not a massive game changer.  Not saying NDP won't benefit from it, but like all other past Ford transgressions, probably only a point or two shifts at most, but with how close things are that matters a lot more than when he had a double digit lead.

[PeteB]

The news release was somewhat of a bombshell, but hardly devastating.  Probably just re-enforces the view many have of the Pcs, but not a massive game changer.  Not saying NDP won't benefit from it, but like all other past Ford transgressions, probably only a point or two shifts at most, but with how close things are that matters a lot more than when he had a double digit lead.

We have to hear the recording that the Liberals will release to judge if there is something to the accusations, but we know they are talking about Kinga Surma, PC candidate for Etobicoke Centre (photo below of the two of them):

[Filuwaúrdjan]

why hello sailor

[PeteB]

why hello sailor

And sometimes a picture speaks a thousand words

[DC Al Fine]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

AH, I was specifically talking about the SW, since the NDP is arguably leading with a large margin and has the best shots ts seats from the PCs. I'm also not disagreeing in the split in 90, helping to elect NDP.
based on Ipsos, the NDP has seen a 13% swing, the PCs only 1% swing; Arguably that moves about 5-7 seats to the NDP, I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

Yeah that's fair I think.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

[King of Kensington]

I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

There isn't much low hanging fruit on the PC side, remember that even if the PC numbers have tapered off they are still well ahead of Hudak '14.

[Tintrlvr]

I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

There isn't much low hanging fruit on the PC side, remember that even if the PC numbers have tapered off they are still well ahead of Hudak '14.

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

[Hifly]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

[King of Kensington]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

[DC Al Fine]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

[Krago]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

Old news.  Your boss beat you to it a couple of hours ago.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/999648270090579969

[lilTommy]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

Old news.  Your boss beat you to it a couple of hours ago.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/999648270090579969

Oh, I know. That's why I feel safe telling everyone.

[ON Progressive]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Hey, that's my riding! I'm not very optimistic about it flipping, even if the NDP end up being ahead of the PCs. Only way it happens is if Woodstock/Ingersoll go very strongly NDP. Hardeman is really strong in the rural portions of the district. The Liberal areas could very well be OLP 14/PC 18 areas (all the Woodstock Liberal 2014 polls are in relatively wealthy areas of town).