TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[junior chįmp]

It's Gravis, but. . .

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Say it with me fam: GOP is done....done!

[Kamala]

It's Gravis, but. . .

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Say it with me fam: GOP is done....done!

Rats are fleeing the sinking ship!

[TomC]

Mackler out. GOP majority is finished!

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Good news. I hope he runs for a state senate seat or something. I could see him being a good gubernatorial candidate if he waits a cycle or two.

Anyone know where Mackler lives? If he's in TN-05, he'd be a good bet to run when Cooper retires.

Yeah, he and a dozen others. I kind of expect Mayor Barry to run, or Dean after he loses the governor's race. Mackler' advantage in running for senate is that no one else seemed willing to take the risk. He'll be near the back of the line for Congress where a Dem most certainly will win.

[Sestak]

Senator Bredesen > Senator Manning...













...>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Senator Blackburn

[TomC]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

[Sestak]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

[TomC]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

[TomC]

"

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[Sestak]

"

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Yes, but party recruiters have been known to change people's minds. If they see him as their best option, there's a chance he runs.

[TomC]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

[Holmes]

Is this the 41-40 Bredesen poll we were promised?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

He lives in Knoxville:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/10/03/peyton-manning-age-wife-stats-kids-statue/726760001/

[Sestak]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

He lives in Knoxville:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/10/03/peyton-manning-age-wife-stats-kids-statue/726760001/

I'd expect him to also have a Denver-area residence, though, seeing as he played there less than 2 years ago.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

He lives in Knoxville:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/10/03/peyton-manning-age-wife-stats-kids-statue/726760001/

I'd expect him to also have a Denver-area residence, though, seeing as he played there less than 2 years ago.

The chances are pretty good that Peyton Manning has more than one house

[Cactus Jack]

If Bredesen is really exceeding expectations, I'll be more than happy to have him in the Senate regardless of his age.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Extreme conservative what do you think of a Blackburn/Bredesen race?

[aaaa2222]

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/
Bredesen up 42-40 on Blackburn, but she hasn't consolidated the GOP field yet. Should be interesting, and certainly better than any other dem. Interestingly, Manning is up by 5, 44-49 on Bredesen. The Old Guard vs the Old Guard!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Extreme conservative what do you think of a Blackburn/Bredesen race?

A slight Bredesen lead in this Gravis poll right now doesn't shock me, but this just shows that she has yet to consolidate Republicans.  I think Blackburn probably will win something like 54-43 at the end of the day, barring any scandals.

This is somewhere between Lean R and Likely R right now.

[Sestak]

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/
Bredesen up 42-40 on Blackburn, but she hasn't consolidated the GOP field yet. Should be interesting, and certainly better than any other dem. Interestingly, Manning is up by 5, 44-49 on Bredesen. The Old Guard vs the Old Guard!

I don't necessarily think this is bad enough to cause TNGOP to try to recruit Manning, right?

[Vega]

Bredesen can definitely win this. Blackburn is overrated, and you can't underestimate the nostalgia factor for Bredesen.

[The Other Castro]

Vanderbilt poll:

Trump job approval: 48-47 (+1)

Have you heard of: (Name Recognition)
Marsha Blackburn: 73-26
Phil Bredesen: 65-35
Steven Fincher: 22-78
James Mackler: 10-90

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/Fall_2017_topline.pdf

[Sestak]

Vanderbilt poll:

Trump job approval: 48-47 (+1)

Have you heard of: (Name Recognition)
Marsha Blackburn: 73-26
Phil Bredesen: 65-35
Steven Fincher: 22-78
James Mackler: 10-90

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/Fall_2017_topline.pdf

Blackburn is higher than Bredesen? Now that is interesting.

It'd be like Eric Swalwell having higher name recognition than Arnold here.

[IceSpear]

Also, Bredesen was last governor 7 years ago, and last on the ballot 11 years ago. People have short memories. Sestak had pretty low name recognition in 2015 even though he probably had upwards of 90% in the tail end of 2010.

[Adam Griffin]

I think barring an Alabama-type scenario where the discrepancy between Democratic and Republican turnout is immense, 43% or so is his ceiling. A good part of the reason why Bredesen's name rec is (might be? not sure about that poll) so low in that poll is because a significant portion of the people who voted for him 11-15 years ago are now dead. Those people also disproportionately were the ones you needed to win (and could) statewide as a Democrat in TN: the proverbial ass-end of the New Deal Coalition and/or the Solid South.



If turnout (as a share of presidential #s) is like 80% for Dems and 55% for GOP, then yeah, winning is definitely possible.