CO-SEN 2020: Two Democrats already in

[I’m not Stu]

Derrick Blanton and Justin Leitzel are in. A serious Democrat will likely file in 2019. What's Gardner's fate?

[Holmes]

Probably loses, especially if Nevada and Arizona go the way we all think they will next year.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

Hes probably going to lose by around 5% but if Hickenlooper runs he shouldn't even waste his time campaigning.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely D with Hickenlooper, Lean D otherwise.

[Figueira]

Somewhere between "narrowly loses" and "blanched." Colorado is probably too polarized for him to lose by a huge margin, but he won't get any crossover votes to speak of.

[Heisenberg]

I think he loses by 6-7% or so. Too much of a loss to be narrow, too close to call it a Blanching.

[Meatball Ron]

I think he loses by 6-7% or so. Too much of a loss to be narrow, too close to call it a Blanching.

Agreed

[kyc0705]

Derrick Blanton and Justin Leitzel are in. A serious Democrat will likely file in 2019. What's Gardner's fate?

You know you're losing it when you see "2019" and have to take a minute to figure out when that is.

[Keep cool-idge]

We should know by now not call someone dead on arrival or no chance they lose
Here are some for all of you
Mark udall
Mark warner
Ron Johnson
Roy blunt
Richard burr
Scott brown 2010
Harry Truman 1948
Hillary Clinton 2016
Jon tester
Clarie mccaskill
Matt Bevin
Pat tommey
And of course Donald trump

[I’m not Stu]

We should know by now not call someone dead on arrival or no chance they lose
Here are some for all of you
Mark udall
Mark warner
Ron Johnson
Roy blunt
Richard burr
Scott brown 2010
Harry Truman 1948
Hillary Clinton 2016
Jon tester
Clarie mccaskill
Matt Bevin
Pat tommey
And of course Donald trump

Burr was favored. Tester is favored but could lose. McCaskill could win. Toomey and Johnson were helped by a more favorable year for the GOP in swing states. Blunt nearly lost despite having the advantage of incumbency in a red state.

[Keep cool-idge]

We should know by now not call someone dead on arrival or no chance they lose
Here are some for all of you
Mark udall
Mark warner
Ron Johnson
Roy blunt
Richard burr
Scott brown 2010
Harry Truman 1948
Hillary Clinton 2016
Jon tester
Clarie mccaskill
Matt Bevin
Pat tommey
And of course Donald trump

Burr was favored. Tester is favored but could lose. McCaskill could win. Toomey and Johnson were helped by a more favorable year for the GOP in swing states. Blunt nearly lost despite having the advantage of incumbency in a red state.

That's my point a lot of those people were meant to win easily or lose yet they either won or almost lost on Election Day.

[KingSweden]

I think he loses by 6-7% or so. Too much of a loss to be narrow, too close to call it a Blanching.

Agreed

[MAINEiac4434]

This state is trending more Democratic by the hour. If someone credible runs against Gardner (they will), he's toast.

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Gardner is DOA. His Morning Consult approval rating is 51%, which is higher than Bennet's. If he loses, it will most likely be because the GOP nominee drags the ticket down (but Gardner will most likely run ahead of the nominee)

[Mr. Smith]

Did Mark Udall decline for rematch yet?

[Cynthia]

He'll lose by the 6-7 in my opinion.

[Cactus Jack]

Colorado hasn't swung left enough for Gardner to be Blanched or Kirked, but I wager he's still in for a fairly wide loss.

[libertpaulian]

If 2020 is a 2008-esque blue tsunami, he's gone.  If it's a neutral year, it could go either way.  If Trump wins by his 2016 margins or expands on them, he wins.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Likely D with Hickenlooper, Lean D otherwise.

[MT Treasurer]

If 2020 is a 2008-esque blue tsunami, he's gone.  If it's a neutral year, it could go either way.  If Trump wins by his 2016 margins or expands on them, he wins.

Not really, no. Trump lost Colorado by a lot even as he won 304 electoral votes nationally. There is basically zero split-ticket voting happening in blue states anymore, and Trump has little chance of winning CO in 2020.

I'd say Gardner has the same "chance" of winning reelection as McCaskill does, honestly. Likely D, could be anything from a 2-point to a 9-point loss.