The 3 Democrats who have a better than 60% chance of winning in 2020

[BushKerry04]

As I see it, Democrats have two paths to victory in 2020. One is the way Obama won. You inspire minority and female voters to support the nominee and win the support of white, working-class voters in rural parts of the midwest. Obama didn't do particularly well with independents in 2012, so it's more about driving up turnout with traditionally Democratic constituencies. The other strategy is to focus heavily on winning independent voters and white working class voters who supported Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then supported Trump in 2016. This is more or less how Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.

Based on this criteria, Democrats would be best off nominating either Businessman Mark Cuban, Former Vice President Joe Biden, Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo, or Former Governor of Massachusetts Deval Patrick for President.

Deval Patrick, much like President Obama, has a compelling life story, is an individual of accomplishment, and is a great orator. He inspires many. I believe could win with the Obama coalition. That said, the Republicans would attack him as a Massachusetts liberal.

Joe Biden is well respected, down-to-earth, and I believe he could win using either of the two strategies I outlined. His only major issue will be his age.

Andrew Cuomo has governed New York from the center-left, he is thoughtful, and he's a great politician. Cuomo is a socially progressive fiscal moderate, much like Bill Clinton. Cuomo is also tough, which any Trump opponent needs to be.

Mark Cuban isn't interested in being President, but I believe if leading Democrats got him to run, he would at least consider it. Cuban is accomplished, articulate, and not a politician. He isn't too far left.

There is no question but that millions of Democrats want a nominee like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Cory Booker. Americans rejected liberalism in the elections of 2010, 2014, and 2016. President Obama is the only candidate to win as a liberal since LBJ won the 1964 election. Obama tried to sound more moderate, which helped him. Warren, Sanders, and Booker don't do that. As a Never Trump Republican, I can tell you I'd never vote for Warren or Sanders over Trump (I'd vote third party). I would, however, support Biden, Cuomo, Cuban, and possibly Patrick over Trump and then just support the GOP nominee (assuming he or she isn't crazy) in 2024.

Thoughts?

[Blair]

why not John Bell Edwards I don't like him but since hes so damn conservative theirs no question he would win over massive crossover votes. But the problem is if democrats become that moderate (pro Life pro gun anti obama care etc) Then is having a republican lite in the white house worth it?

FWIW Jon Bel Edwards isn't anti-Obamacare, and actually expanded medicare when he became Governor.

I'd not support someone like Edwards/Manchin (insert red state blue dog) in the primaries but I know that yes it is worth having whatever you call a 'republican-lite' in the White House if it stops the insanity that is Trump; and actually gets some solid things done.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Biden would be OK. Cuomo would also not be that bad, he did some good things in New York in terms of college education. Both are absolutely not preferrable, though.

The other two options are just so laughably horrible that I want to disregard your post entirely. Deval Patrick has almost nothing going for him other than the establishment's blessing; the points you brought up are more or less anecdotal, and are easily disputed. Booker and Harris would both be better. Mark Cuban should be a Republican, as that's where he stands on fiscal policy. If he somehow became the nominee, I would vote for Trump, strictly to tell the Democratic Party to take their supply-side economics and their Rand-fellating douchebag of a candidate, and shove them up their cosmopolitan ass. Also, if Trump wins this election scenario, the 2022 midterms would probably be a Democratic blowout, and 2024 would see the strength of the progressive movement at its peak.

[Deblano]

Biden is the only of those three I agree with, and he needs to be 10 years younger to be truly valid.

Cuomo would get curbstomped with a Green Party/Socialist candidate getting around 5% of the vote.

[McGovernForPrez]

I don't know if you are very aware of the different wings of the party, but Booker isn't considered part of the same wing as Sanders or Warren. Also Cuban is an awful candidate with more deranged views about government than Trump.

[choclatechip45]

Biden would be OK. Cuomo would also not be that bad, he did some good things in New York in terms of college education. Both are absolutely not preferrable, though.

The other two options are just so laughably horrible that I want to disregard your post entirely. Deval Patrick has almost nothing going for him other than the establishment's blessing; the points you brought up are more or less anecdotal, and are easily disputed. Booker and Harris would both be better. Mark Cuban should be a Republican, as that's where he stands on fiscal policy. If he somehow became the nominee, I would vote for Trump, strictly to tell the Democratic Party to take their supply-side economics and their Rand-fellating douchebag of a candidate, and shove them up their cosmopolitan ass. Also, if Trump wins this election scenario, the 2022 midterms would probably be a Democratic blowout, and 2024 would see the strength of the progressive movement at its peak.

Cuomo is absolutely terrible I hope he doesn't run for president if he somehow wins the nomination I'll hold my nose and vote for him. He will do anything for press hit. His behavior after Michael Kennedy was terrible. Plus he refuses to fix the MTA and keeps blaming De Blasio.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Biden would be OK. Cuomo would also not be that bad, he did some good things in New York in terms of college education. Both are absolutely not preferrable, though.

The other two options are just so laughably horrible that I want to disregard your post entirely. Deval Patrick has almost nothing going for him other than the establishment's blessing; the points you brought up are more or less anecdotal, and are easily disputed. Booker and Harris would both be better. Mark Cuban should be a Republican, as that's where he stands on fiscal policy. If he somehow became the nominee, I would vote for Trump, strictly to tell the Democratic Party to take their supply-side economics and their Rand-fellating douchebag of a candidate, and shove them up their cosmopolitan ass. Also, if Trump wins this election scenario, the 2022 midterms would probably be a Democratic blowout, and 2024 would see the strength of the progressive movement at its peak.

Cuomo is absolutely terrible I hope he doesn't run for president if he somehow wins the nomination I'll hold my nose and vote for him. He will do anything for press hit. His behavior after Michael Kennedy was terrible. Plus he refuses to fix the MTA and keeps blaming De Blasio.

Truth be told, I don't know much about Cuomo. I could be swayed either way on him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When it comes to the democratic primary, no contender (currently) has a better than 60% chance of winning.

In the general I would give both Biden and Sanders above a 60% chance of beating Trump. Maybe about 90%.

Kamala Harris is close to 60%.

The rest of the field, excluding Delaney, Cuomo, and Patrick, have about a 55% chance of beating Trump.

Note: This is all if the General election was today. Obviously Trump's popularity could get worse or better as time goes on.

[Mr. Smith]

As I see it, Democrats have two paths to victory in 2020. One is the way Obama won. You inspire minority and female voters to support the nominee and win the support of white, working-class voters in rural parts of the midwest. Obama didn't do particularly well with independents in 2012, so it's more about driving up turnout with traditionally Democratic constituencies. The other strategy is to focus heavily on winning independent voters and white working class voters who supported Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then supported Trump in 2016. This is more or less how Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.

Based on this criteria, Democrats would be best off nominating either Businessman Mark Cuban, Former Vice President Joe Biden, Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo, or Former Governor of Massachusetts Deval Patrick for President.

Deval Patrick, much like President Obama, has a compelling life story, is an individual of accomplishment, and is a great orator. He inspires many. I believe could win with the Obama coalition. That said, the Republicans would attack him as a Massachusetts liberal.

Joe Biden is well respected, down-to-earth, and I believe he could win using either of the two strategies I outlined. His only major issue will be his age.

Andrew Cuomo has governed New York from the center-left, he is thoughtful, and he's a great politician. Cuomo is a socially progressive fiscal moderate, much like Bill Clinton. Cuomo is also tough, which any Trump opponent needs to be.

Mark Cuban isn't interested in being President, but I believe if leading Democrats got him to run, he would at least consider it. Cuban is accomplished, articulate, and not a politician. He isn't too far left.

There is no question but that millions of Democrats want a nominee like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Cory Booker. Americans rejected liberalism in the elections of 2010, 2014, and 2016. President Obama is the only candidate to win as a liberal since LBJ won the 1964 election. Obama tried to sound more moderate, which helped him. Warren, Sanders, and Booker don't do that. As a Never Trump Republican, I can tell you I'd never vote for Warren or Sanders over Trump (I'd vote third party). I would, however, support Biden, Cuomo, Cuban, and possibly Patrick over Trump and then just support the GOP nominee (assuming he or she isn't crazy) in 2024.

Thoughts?

Nixon was the first real conservative since 1928 in 1968.

Conservatism was rejected in '60, '64, and the midterms from '52-'94 straight.

Didn't stop 1968 from game-changing, 1976 being the last cry, and 1980 completely revamping

...We've just past 1976 (complete with the overcrowded field, wild card winner, weird Wisconsin flip, and completely hapless trifecta)...

[McGovernForPrez]

As I see it, Democrats have two paths to victory in 2020. One is the way Obama won. You inspire minority and female voters to support the nominee and win the support of white, working-class voters in rural parts of the midwest. Obama didn't do particularly well with independents in 2012, so it's more about driving up turnout with traditionally Democratic constituencies. The other strategy is to focus heavily on winning independent voters and white working class voters who supported Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then supported Trump in 2016. This is more or less how Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.

Based on this criteria, Democrats would be best off nominating either Businessman Mark Cuban, Former Vice President Joe Biden, Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo, or Former Governor of Massachusetts Deval Patrick for President.

Deval Patrick, much like President Obama, has a compelling life story, is an individual of accomplishment, and is a great orator. He inspires many. I believe could win with the Obama coalition. That said, the Republicans would attack him as a Massachusetts liberal.

Joe Biden is well respected, down-to-earth, and I believe he could win using either of the two strategies I outlined. His only major issue will be his age.

Andrew Cuomo has governed New York from the center-left, he is thoughtful, and he's a great politician. Cuomo is a socially progressive fiscal moderate, much like Bill Clinton. Cuomo is also tough, which any Trump opponent needs to be.

Mark Cuban isn't interested in being President, but I believe if leading Democrats got him to run, he would at least consider it. Cuban is accomplished, articulate, and not a politician. He isn't too far left.

There is no question but that millions of Democrats want a nominee like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Cory Booker. Americans rejected liberalism in the elections of 2010, 2014, and 2016. President Obama is the only candidate to win as a liberal since LBJ won the 1964 election. Obama tried to sound more moderate, which helped him. Warren, Sanders, and Booker don't do that. As a Never Trump Republican, I can tell you I'd never vote for Warren or Sanders over Trump (I'd vote third party). I would, however, support Biden, Cuomo, Cuban, and possibly Patrick over Trump and then just support the GOP nominee (assuming he or she isn't crazy) in 2024.

Thoughts?

Nixon was the first real conservative since 1928 in 1968.

Conservatism was rejected in '60, '64, and the midterms from '52-'94 straight.

Didn't stop 1968 from game-changing, 1976 being the last cry, and 1980 completely revamping

...We've just past 1976 (complete with the overcrowded field, wild card winner, weird Wisconsin flip, and completely hapless trifecta)...

I truly believe Trump is the next Jimmy Carter.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

"One is the way Obama won. You inspire minority and female voters to support the nominee and win the support of white, working-class voters in rural parts of the midwest."

Heidi Heitkamp? /s

[Lord Admirale]

Joe Manchin