Political Trends where you disagree with the Atlas Consensus

[100% pro-life no matter what]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.
-The Democrats aren't going to magically become populist and libertarian-ish at the same time
-The Republicans will eventually moderate, but only on the "new cultural issues" like immigration, not the traditional ones
-Trumpism will die once Trump leaves office
-North Carolina will stay a Lean R state for the foreseeable future
-Improvements with Hispanics will stabalize Texas and Florida for the GOP
-Georgia, however, is a solid long-term Democratic prospect.  I think they also become competitive in places like Montana and Alaska (and maybe Arizona with an East-West divide in the Hispanic vote), while most of the Midwest moves to the GOP.
-The Democrats will eventually abolish the EC during a trifecta in the 2040s or so, once it becomes common that they keep winning the popular vote with ridiculous margins in California and New York, but rarely can win the EC.

[PoliticalShelter]

Immigration isn't a "new" issue. Besides its more likely the GOP moderates on issues like LGBT rights and birth control than immigration at this point.

[McGovernForPrez]

The only thing you said that I remotely agree with is that Trumpism dies with Trump.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Who thinks the Democrats are going to become populist and libertarian at the same time? That's so stupid that I can't even wrap my head around the thinking there.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Who thinks the Democrats are going to become populist and libertarian at the same time? That's so stupid that I can't even wrap my head around the thinking there.

There are some people who think the democrats will become populist.There are some people who think the democrats will become libertarian. There are some people who think the democrats might become either. But I think extreme republican is mixing them up.

[TheSaint250]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

-The Democrats aren't going to magically become populist and libertarian-ish at the same time

Haven't heard this theory though people do believe that either one will come true.  I think they will become a Bernie-esque party.

-The Republicans will eventually moderate, but only on the "new cultural issues" like immigration, not the traditional ones

There's a good chance that the party moderates on SSM and abortion.

-Trumpism will die once Trump leaves office

It pretty much died a month after he took office.

-North Carolina will stay a Lean R state for the foreseeable future

I'm inclined to agree, but it's a strange state. We'll see how it continues to lean.

-Improvements with Hispanics will stabalize Texas and Florida for the GOP

This is certainly a possibility, but the GOP might not be able to shift the tide before it's too late.

-Georgia, however, is a solid long-term Democratic prospect.  I think they also become competitive in places like Montana and Alaska (and maybe Arizona with an East-West divide in the Hispanic vote), while most of the Midwest moves to the GOP.

You're right about Georgia, unless the GOP turns it around.  Montana might become more competitive, but probably not Alaska. I personally don't see it.

-The Democrats will eventually abolish the EC during a trifecta in the 2040s or so, once it becomes common that they keep winning the popular vote with ridiculous margins in California and New York, but rarely can win the EC.

Not sure about this one, but it could happen.

[TheLeftwardTide]

The two main ones are:

- Heitkamp is Likely D because of crossover appeal alone
- 2016 trends will set the stage for the next several decades of politics

[Nyvin]

The Democrats will continue to improve in large cities and urban areas, while the GOP improves in rural parts of the country and some WWC areas.   

I think sooner or later the GOP will give up the fight against both climate change and give up on the drug war.

The Southern Atlantic Coast and the Southwestern states (including Texas) will eventually be the Dem's new bases, along with the Northeast and Pacific Coast, except South Carolina and Utah.   Republicans will get pretty much everything else, except maybe Minnesota and Illinois.

[RINO Tom]

Are we supposed to list our toughts on trends (a.k.a., our retort of the Atlas Consensus) or actually list the trends that fit the Atlas Consensus that we disagree with?  This thread is confusing to read, LOL.

[Xing]

-I don't think places like Orange and Cobb county are the future of the Democratic Party and will never go Republican again
-I also don't buy the idea that racial polarization will be extreme by the 2030s, making the Midwest Safe R and the PNW competitive or Republican-leaning, while the South becomes Safe D
-Or that the 2016 trend in states like Maine and Utah are guaranteed to continue
-Also, I reject the idea that Pence has a better chance of winning in 2020 than Trump

[Virginiá]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

This is what I just don't get about 2020s realignment naysayers. Aside from the fact that the GOP's base of older whites will be significantly eroded by 'natural causes' in the mid-2020s, the arguments put forth by TD are very detailed and very plausible. I have some issues with some of the WWC theories, but still. I've never seen anyone put forth any sort of decent argument for why Republicans would somehow dominate for another generation or more. Like it literally doesn't add up. Where do the voters come from? Republicans magically win Democratic-leaning Millennials as they age? (a trend which is largely proven a myth). One consistent aspect of political parties seems to be that eventually a dominant party falls out of step, and refuses to adapt until they are pushed out of power, at which point it takes years to begin regaining influence among the growing parts of the electorate, as they have to change their appeal - sometimes significantly.

As it stands now, the Republican Party is like a poor, unskilled and lazy citizen who won a decent lottery in the 80s and has been almost completely living off of those funds ever since. Eventually you run out of voters money.

* ftr I'm not bitching at you, just ranting

[Coraxion]

I think that GOP primary voters are too insane to allow the GOP to moderate. Atlas does not.

I think that because of that, Democrats will become a permanent majority and the real battle will be between the different Democratic factions. Atlas does not.

[TheSaint250]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

This is what I just don't get about 2020s realignment naysayers. Aside from the fact that the GOP's base of older whites will be significantly eroded by 'natural causes' in the mid-2020s, the arguments put forth by TD are very detailed and very plausible. I have some issues with some of the WWC theories, but still. I've never seen anyone put forth any sort of decent argument for why Republicans would somehow dominate for another generation or more. Like it literally doesn't add up. Where do the voters come from? Republicans magically win Democratic-leaning Millennials as they age? (a trend which is largely proven a myth). One consistent aspect of political parties seems to be that eventually a dominant party falls out of step, and refuses to adapt until they are pushed out of power, at which point it takes years to begin regaining influence among the growing parts of the electorate, as they have to change their appeal - sometimes significantly.

As it stands now, the Republican Party is like a poor, unskilled and lazy citizen who won a decent lottery in the 80s and has been almost completely living off of those funds ever since. Eventually you run out of voters money.

* ftr I'm not bitching at you, just ranting

I'm (clearly) not a political expert, so I've kinda been just feeling this out.  I just feel like the 2020s is too soon. The trends from 2016 will most likely not continue, and I think significant changes will more likely come in the 2030s.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think that GOP primary voters are too insane to allow the GOP to moderate. Atlas does not.

I think that because of that, Democrats will become a permanent majority and the real battle will be between the different Democratic factions. Atlas does not.

Here's another one: The country will continue to move to the right over the next 50 years.

[AN63093]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

This is a good one.  But to be fair, I'm not sure if this is the serious "Atlas Consensus," or just a thing a lot of people like posting about because it's a fun discussion topic.

I don't think we'll necessarily have a realignment, nor that we are "due" for one (they don't necessarily happen in regular intervals like rising/lowering tides or something).  And if it does happen, it probably won't be until a) the Boomers are all gone, and b) there's a good chance it looks nothing like what people want it to.

- Trumpism/populism isn't just simply going to "die" once Trump leaves office.

This, on the other hand, is a good "serious" one.  I've discussed this with lots of people on the forum and MT T- you're the only one that seems to get this.

A lot of people say it just because it's what they want to happen.  Well, it'd be nice to win Powerball too, but just because I want it, doesn't mean it'll happen.  I've seen this mistake made here on Atlas year, after year, after year, after year....

[AN63093]

Are we supposed to list our toughts on trends (a.k.a., our retort of the Atlas Consensus) or actually list the trends that fit the Atlas Consensus that we disagree with?  This thread is confusing to read, LOL.

Also this.

[Virginiá]

The only social issues I see a permanent leftward shift in is the embrace of LGBT rights and a much more racially tolerant society after this 1920's nativist backlash from the Alt Right runs its course and the GOP realize that they have to finally come to terms with the changing electorate.

Is that even possible if the GOP base keeps pushing for it? My thoughts on that is it probably won't stop until the Boomers are about as influential in the party as the silent's are right now, which could be something like, what, 15 years? Normally I might say, with enough GOP politicians refusing to cater to those views anymore, it might give the base enough cues that it's no longer OK, but racial intolerance isn't just one or two policies/issues, it's a whole lens people use to look at political issues and the world even. If a lawmaker refuses to indulge it, it leaves room for one that will to move in and oust them. And this doesn't factor in that Trump has supercharged the parts of the electorate whose signature issues are race-related - supercharged enough that he has probably brought in a bunch of white supremacists that didn't even vote before, which compounds the GOP's problem.

The way I see it is, the Republican voters who push for this behavior would probably do so even if the party itself lost enormous power in wave after wave. Call it, say, the jfern theory: They would rather lose as neoliberal racially intolerant party than win as the progressive racially inclusive party. You just wouldn't think it because seeing as the Republican Party's coalition is still mostly dominant, and Obama's tenure leaving Democrats decimated at numerous levels, they feel even more emboldened in their views, probably thinking they are dominant because of them, rather than in spite of.

[Bismarck]

Kansas will not trend democratic long term.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Iowa will be easier for the Democratic nominee to win than Ohio (for the next couple presidential elections).

[libertpaulian]

Iowa will be easier for the Democratic nominee to win than Ohio (for the next couple presidential elections).

That one is a downright headscratcher.  Iowa is whiter than Ohio is, which helps the GOP.

[PragmaticPopulist]

• Washington and Oregon will not trend R in the long term
• The Northeast will swing back towards Ds in the future, as Trump's policies are more like a conventional R
• There won't be a dramatic realignment in the 2020s where non-college whites all of a sudden becoming a D-leaning demographic. There will however, be a small one where voting behaviors among different demographics go back to around where they were in 2006-2008, and it will be longer-lasting. Ds however, make significant gains among Hispanic voters, due to the GOP being associated with the end of DACA. College-educated voters also continue to trend D
• Trumpism will mostly die after Trump is gone, though there will be certain elements of it that linger, like a wing of the GOP that is more oriented towards blue-collar whites. This wing won't have much influence overall though

[Skunk]

New Hampshire isn't going to become Safe D.

[TheSaint250]

Disagree with:

-The Republican Party is going to be purely white people and the Democratic Party is going to be strictly minorities.

-Florida will eventually strongly lean towards Democrats.

[Mr. Smith]

-  Minnesota being in play in 2020 or liable to flip
-  NH and Virginia being Safe D
-  NM being a swing state
-  NV leaving the bellwether status for a Lean D
-  GA being further away than NC from "Virginiafication"
- CA will bottom out next election

[Young Conservative]

- Georgia will NOT become a swing state anytime soon
- Texas will NOT become a swing state anytime soon
- North Carolina leans R
- Florida tilts R
- 2018 will not be a Democratic landslide.
- Trump is not as unpopular as people think or polls say, especially in Trump 2016 states.
- Democrats are not and will never be a suburbanite party.