If NC is a swing state, then so is NM...

[UncleSam]

I mean if the point of this thread is 'Democrats consistently play up their chances in Nc because they have a high floor and Obama won it once' then yes that is absolutely true.

NM is not a swing state any more and is more likely to vote D than NC is to vote R, but not by much. NC is a state that Republicans will win in pretty much any close election, and will only lose narrowly to very strong Democratic candidates (like Roy Cooper) when their own candidate is poor. Similarly, NM is a state that Democrats will win in pretty much any close election, and will generally only lose to exceptionally strong Republican candidates (like Susana Martinez).

NC however consistently gets rated / viewed as a toss-up state by many analysts who seem baffled by the notion that a state decided by < 5 points could be that far off from being a swing state. NC, however, has a crazy high GOP floor that pretty much gives any Republican 48% right off the top - Democrats, meanwhile, get something like 45% right off the top. While it is possible for strong candidates to win > 70% of the persuadable voters in the right circumstances, it is a very tall task. NM is similar in the other direction but with lower floors for both parties (but particularly for the GOP).