If NC is a swing state, then so is NM...
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  If NC is a swing state, then so is NM...
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Author Topic: If NC is a swing state, then so is NM...  (Read 1990 times)
twenty42
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« on: August 30, 2017, 07:24:23 PM »

Yes...I understand Obama won NC in 2008 and Dems have carried NM comfortably in the last three elections. But before you laugh me off the board, let's look at some numbers...

2008 Nation: 7.26% D
2008 NC: 0.33% D
NC Tilt: 6.93% R

2012 Nation: 3.86% D
2012 NC: 2.04% R
NC Tilt: 5.9% R

2016 Nation: 2.09% D
2016 NC: 3.66% R
NC Tilt: 5.75% R

2008 Nation: 7.26% D
2008 NM: 15.13% D
NM Tilt: 7.87% D

2012 Nation: 3.86% D
2012 NM: 10.15% D
NM Tilt: 6.29% D

2016 Nation: 2.09% D
2016 NM: 8.21% D
NM Tilt: 6.12% D

Average NC Tilt, last three elections: 6.19% R

Average NM Tilt, last three elections: 6.76% D

As you can see, the states are pretty mirror images of each other. NC is negligibly trending D while NM is negligibly trending R, but both of their cushions for their respective parties are comfortable as well as mathematically similar.

My point here is not that NM is a swing state, but that NC isn't either. NM is a Likely D state that could flip in a Republican landslide, just as NC is a Likely R state that did flip in a Democratic landslide.

I think a lot of people list NC as a swing state simply because it voted D in 2008, but that is faulty reasoning. NC is no more of a swing state than NM, and NM is not a swing state at all.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2017, 07:28:08 PM »

Eh not quite the full picture. New Mexico has trended twice R and twice D since 2000 while NC has (in some instances very narrowly) trended D 4 times in a row.

I don't think North Carolina is as easy to win for future Democrats as it may look on paper; primarily due to the fact that black turnout has been returning to pre-Obama levels since last year (and Obama only won the state once anyhow).
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2017, 07:36:59 PM »

I'm more concerned about Georgia than North Carolina in the medium-term, to be honest.  I think NC is pretty much a stable "Lean R" state, and I don't really see anything changing that, especially given that the people moving there today are actually overwhelmingly Republican.  Plus, NC's age gap was nowhere near as large as Georgia's (I do think people move somewhat to the right as they age, but also that states with unusually large or small gaps are evidence of future trends).
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2017, 08:02:55 PM »

I'm more concerned about Georgia than North Carolina in the medium-term, to be honest.  I think NC is pretty much a stable "Lean R" state, and I don't really see anything changing that, especially given that the people moving there today are actually overwhelmingly Republican.  Plus, NC's age gap was nowhere near as large as Georgia's (I do think people move somewhat to the right as they age, but also that states with unusually large or small gaps are evidence of future trends).
Yeah I agree Georgia is some where the GOP should dump money just to hold it red or blue on here it's sort of looking like Virginia of 1992-2004 where it looks as if it trending maybe blue but then it just comes out of no where but as long as blacks vote in pre2008 numbers the GOP is okay meaning the GOP wins 8-13% but not super high turn out.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2017, 10:08:40 PM »

Wouldn't New Mexico be heavily influenced by Gary Johnson being on the ballot though?

From 2008 to 2016 both parties lost quite a lot of votes.
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TheLeftwardTide
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2017, 10:22:56 PM »

Yeah I consider NM to be a swing state. Though if you spend enough time on Atlas, you would think Virginia is Solid D and Wisconsin is Solid R, so...
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AN63093
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2017, 10:57:18 PM »

Good thread.  You know, I'm actually starting to wonder about this myself.  Conventional wisdom is that NC is a highly polarized state that the Dems can win with high enough black turnout.

But is that true?  Consider that Clinton actually did better than Obama in turnout.  She beat him in both '08 and '12 in number of votes.  If you look at Mecklenburg Cty, Durham Cty, Guilford Cty... Clinton is actually getting higher numbers of raw votes there than Obama did in '08.  Sure, Obama did better in some black belt counties... like in Hertford County, he got 600 more votes.  In Bertie County, he also got about 600 more votes.  Ok so 500 here, 600 there.  Clinton lost a couple counties that Obama won as well, like Martin and Richmond.  I don't know if all of this makes much of a difference.

Meanwhile Trump improved on McCain by over 200k votes.  His margin over Clinton was over 170k votes.  So 600 here and there is not gonna cut it.  We gotta find a lot more than that.

Maybe there are simply more conservatives moving to NC than people realize.
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TheLeftwardTide
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2017, 11:03:41 PM »

Good thread.  You know, I'm actually starting to wonder about this myself.  Conventional wisdom is that NC is a highly polarized state that the Dems can win with high enough black turnout.

But is that true?  Consider that Clinton actually did better than Obama in turnout.  She beat him in both '08 and '12 in number of votes.  If you look at Mecklenburg Cty, Durham Cty, Guilford Cty... Clinton is actually getting higher numbers of raw votes there than Obama did in '08.  Sure, Obama did better in some black belt counties... like in Hertford County, he got 600 more votes.  In Bertie County, he also got about 600 more votes.  Ok so 500 here, 600 there.  Clinton lost a couple counties that Obama won as well, like Martin and Richmond.  I don't know if all of this makes much of a difference.

Meanwhile Trump improved on McCain by over 200k votes.  His margin over Clinton was over 170k votes.  So 600 here and there is not gonna cut it.  We gotta find a lot more than that.

Maybe there are simply more conservatives moving to NC than people realize.

The main reason that Trump improved so much on McCain was because he was able to increase the rural conservative white turnout. His socially conservative message energized that section of the Republican base much more than McCain's more moderate message did. If it really is a turnout battle, then you're forgetting the Republican side of the equation.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2017, 11:09:41 PM »

One problem with NM being compared...Gary Johnson, who almost took double digits out of the state. Arguably Clinton would've won by like 12 points without him.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2017, 12:03:48 AM »

A swing state - by definition - should be a state that has actually voted for both parties in recent history.

A state that is consistently close - but nevertheless hasn't actually voted for both parties anytime recently - may be a competitive state, but is not a swing state. Prior to 2016, the perfect examples of competitive states would have been Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; Ohio and Florida the perfect examples of swing states.

Personally, I consider the definition of "swing state" to be a state that has voted for both parties at least once in the past three elections. While this definition isn't perfect (see: IN), it is more often than not a better one than people conflating "swing state" with "competitive state".

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2017, 04:19:33 AM »

A swing state - by definition - should be a state that has actually voted for both parties in recent history.

A state that is consistently close - but nevertheless hasn't actually voted for both parties anytime recently - may be a competitive state, but is not a swing state. Prior to 2016, the perfect examples of competitive states would have been Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; Ohio and Florida the perfect examples of swing states.

Personally, I consider the definition of "swing state" to be a state that has voted for both parties at least once in the past three elections. While this definition isn't perfect (see: IN), it is more often than not a better one than people conflating "swing state" with "competitive state".



One must note that this approach basically created the whole notion of the Blue Wall to the point that even affected decision making within the Clinton camp though (not going to WI). "Yet its competitive, but it will never flip because it is not a true swing state, they haven't won it since 1984".
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2017, 09:47:16 AM »

One must note that this approach basically created the whole notion of the Blue Wall to the point that even affected decision making within the Clinton camp though (not going to WI). "Yet its competitive, but it will never flip because it is not a true swing state, they haven't won it since 1984".

Maybe so, but that is the nature of electoral politics (which should be viewed a bit differently than campaign strategy itself): competitive states are competitive until they're not, blue states are blue until they're not, and red states are red until they're not. It also doesn't mean that we should call states that haven't voted for the opposite party in several cycles "swing states" when they haven't actually swung.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2017, 09:59:56 AM »

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2017, 11:38:06 AM »

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.
I'm not sure democrats actually have an advantage in the popular vote.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2017, 01:57:54 PM »

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.
I'm not sure democrats actually have an advantage in the popular vote.
In recent elections, they've won it more often than the Republicans and by larger margins than when Republicans did win it.
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twenty42
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2017, 04:43:41 PM »

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.

But that's my exact point. NC isn't voting D unless D's win the popular vote by 6-7%, and NM isn't voting R unless R's win the popular vote by 6-7%. One can't be a swing state while the other isn't...either they are both swing states or neither one of them are.
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twenty42
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2017, 08:26:21 PM »

Personally, I consider the definition of "swing state" to be a state that has voted for both parties at least once in the past three elections. While this definition isn't perfect (see: IN), it is more often than not a better one than people conflating "swing state" with "competitive state".

I'm sorry, but this is simply not a good barometer for swing states. Going with that measure, this would've been the swing state map for 2008...



And here is 1992...



***************

To your point, I am not conflating "swing" with "competitive"...that is actually my whole argument. NC was "competitive" and "close" in 2008 because Obama had a large national lead. The fact is that NC still had a significant R lean...he won it by 0.33% while winning by 7.26% nationally. Just as if Trump were to win by 7.26% in 2016, he would've most likely won NM by 1.14%. NM would've retained its significant D lean...but the nation would've pulled it to the other side.

My point is that no state that leans ~6% to either side should be considered a "swing" state. Both states would and should only be considered "competitive" in the case of a large national lead for either party.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2017, 03:54:15 PM »

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.
I'm not sure democrats actually have an advantage in the popular vote.
In recent elections, they've won it more often than the Republicans and by larger margins than when Republicans did win it.
That's only mostly true if your criteria for recent is elections where democrats have won.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2017, 09:50:04 PM »

They are similar in that they are polarized, but NM is more elastic than NC. George Bush won NM in 2004 because he nearly evenly split the Hispanic vote, and Hispanics have trended D significantly since. NC is slowly but surely trending D, because of snowbirds from the north. 2008 may have just been a perfect storm, and NC  wasn't a true swing state yet.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2017, 04:09:15 AM »

Yeah I don't think NM deserves this solid blue reputation nor do I think NC is a pure swing state, but North Carolina is competitive more of the time due to its polarizing and somewhat inelastic status. Democrats win New Mexico the vast majority of the time which is why it seems blue, but that can be deceiving without noting some other factors. Kind of like Minnesota.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2017, 10:24:46 AM »

Well, New Mexico IS a swing state.  Bush only lost it by 366 votes in 2004, primarily because of the early call of Florida for Gore.  Were it not for that, he probably would've gotten the state.  In 2004, he won there outright by about 10K votes.

NC, however, is not a real swing state, at least not at the presidential level.  The only reason Obama got it in 2008 is because of high black turnout, and the only reason it was close this last time is because Trump was so unpopular as a candidate.

Generally, NC will be Lean R in most presidential elections.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2017, 11:04:30 AM »

Eh, democrats seem to have a PV advantage at the moment. Since 1992, the Democrats have only lost the PV once, by two points, against an incumbent president.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2017, 08:58:02 AM »

Well, New Mexico IS a swing state.  Bush only lost it by 366 votes in 2004, primarily because of the early call of Florida for Gore.  Were it not for that, he probably would've gotten the state.  In 2004, he won there outright by about 10K votes.

NC, however, is not a real swing state, at least not at the presidential level.  The only reason Obama got it in 2008 is because of high black turnout, and the only reason it was close this last time is because Trump was so unpopular as a candidate.

Generally, NC will be Lean R in most presidential elections.

Wait,  earlier you were saying both are swing states due to the PVI of both states being similar,  now you're saying one is because of older elections but the other isn't despite a more recent election....which story are you going with?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2017, 02:37:48 PM »

Yeah I don't think NM deserves this solid blue reputation nor do I think NC is a pure swing state, but North Carolina is competitive more of the time due to its polarizing and somewhat inelastic status. Democrats win New Mexico the vast majority of the time which is why it seems blue, but that can be deceiving without noting some other factors. Kind of like Minnesota.

This, and I would also add that Democrats are simply much more likely to win the PV than Republicans.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2017, 03:10:12 PM »

I mean if the point of this thread is 'Democrats consistently play up their chances in Nc because they have a high floor and Obama won it once' then yes that is absolutely true.

NM is not a swing state any more and is more likely to vote D than NC is to vote R, but not by much. NC is a state that Republicans will win in pretty much any close election, and will only lose narrowly to very strong Democratic candidates (like Roy Cooper) when their own candidate is poor. Similarly, NM is a state that Democrats will win in pretty much any close election, and will generally only lose to exceptionally strong Republican candidates (like Susana Martinez).

NC however consistently gets rated / viewed as a toss-up state by many analysts who seem baffled by the notion that a state decided by < 5 points could be that far off from being a swing state. NC, however, has a crazy high GOP floor that pretty much gives any Republican 48% right off the top - Democrats, meanwhile, get something like 45% right off the top. While it is possible for strong candidates to win > 70% of the persuadable voters in the right circumstances, it is a very tall task. NM is similar in the other direction but with lower floors for both parties (but particularly for the GOP).
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